Harry Hayfield has been a member of the Welsh Liberal Democrats since June 1992 and has been active in Montgomeryshire, Ceredigion (and Pembroke North), (Aber)Conwy as well as the Warwickshire North, Nuneaton and Weston Super Mare constituencies. He is a registered carer for his grandmother and outside politics has interests in health and fitness, international affairs, agriculture and information technology

Mapping the future

Now that we can view the probable electoral map of Wales at Westminster, our statistical analyst offers some views of what this means for future Welsh elections and the UK as a whole

It was only a matter of opinion

Our resident Statto makes amends for some slightly wide-of-the-mark predictions. Just don’t go betting the mortgage yet

Get ready for six and a half weeks of…

Who are you supporting? Do we even need to ask?

A Shrinking Westminster and it’s effect on the Assembly

Last week we facilitated speculation on a National List of AMs. This week our keenest psephologist shares his views on how changes to the number of Assembly seats would impact on the 2011 result

National Assembly Elections 2011 – Labour’s Battleground

Assembly election campaigning begins this week. Here’s one take on where Labour will be fighting hardest

Using numbers to tell a tale

One week on and the dust has settled, but what does the referendum result tell us about the forthcoming Assembly elections?

Measuring the 97 swing

What can the last two devolution referenda in Wales tell us about the one to come?

Predicting the referendum

Now that we have a date for the referendum on further powers, how does it all shape up statistically? WalesHome’s resident Statto takes a look

Haven’t we been here before?

With the Liberal Democrat federal conference under way in Liverpool, here’s a reflection on the last time the Liberals and Conservatives aligned themselves closely in Wales

Staggering from one vote to the next

WalesHome’s resident Statto crunches the consequences of a snarl up of referenda, and makes an unusual plea to the Deputy Prime Minister

It’s Argentina…

AFTER two and a half weeks of slugging it out over three group matches per group and eight knockout matches we have the final eight teams for the 2010 World Cup Finals and it’s time for me to really stick my neck out and make a projection of the final overall winner (some 14 days [...]

And on into the knockout stages

ALL the group matches are over and once again – despite the huge surprise of the Italians being knocked out, along with France and the hosts – the law of averages still managed to project 12 out of the last 16 correctly. And so we come to the business end of the competition, where it’s [...]