Judgement time … almost

"We’ve already seen the devastating impacts of floods and droughts on the poorest countries in the world. We are not the ones suffering first."

THE independent Climate Change Commission for Wales may not have been a high profile body in its four years of existence. But, considering its wide membership, any report and recommendations it can agree upon is a strong sign that it will have general acceptance across Welsh society. It is not only cross-party but made up from an impressive array of acronyms representing different sectors of Welsh society, including the NHS, WLGA, WCVA, TUC, CBI and FSB.

The creation of the Commission and timing of the Climate Change Commission for Wales First Annual Report are a result of the One Wales Government commitment to cut the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sources in Wales, and for which the Government has devolved responsibility, by 3% a year from 2011. Now that the first year is up, it’s judgment time.

Except that full data on emissions won’t be available for nearly two years, and what’s being judged is severely limited, making the Commission’s job very difficult. The report is therefore a useful round up of government actions in thematic areas, but don’t expect to find the answer to the question: is Wales playing its part in stopping climate chaos?

So what is wrong with not just this report but how climate change is tackled in Wales?

Firstly, the Climate Change Strategy, and delivery plans based on it, only counts the direct GHG emissions that Wales produces. This measure doesn’t take account of the emissions from goods and services consumed in Wales but imported from other parts of the world. Doing so would give a fairer and more comprehensive measure of the burden we place on the planet, and be closer to the ideas presented in the Welsh Government’s One Wales: One Planet sustainable development scheme.

Research from the UK Energy Research Centre shows that these consumption-based emissions in the UK increased by 20% between 1990 and 2008. So while data for Welsh and UK-sourced emissions show GHG emissions reducing in recent years – setting aside the impact of the economic downturn on these statistics – we’re ignoring those parts that are increasing.

The fact is that our buying, producing and consuming habits are increasingly dependent on products which result in emissions in other countries. This may look good for Wales, but does not measure up to taking our share of the responsibility for global climate change. The Welsh Government needs to publish data and measure our progress on the basis of goods and services used and consumed in Wales.

Secondly, the Commission’s report recognises that the 3% target is not in line with the scientific estimate of the cuts necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change, and doesn’t go far enough. It’s over two years since the renowned Tyndall Centre on Climate Change recommended that developed countries need to make 9% annual cuts.

Last week we saw reports of the likely impacts of climate change in Wales over the coming century, including flooding and heat waves, habitat loss, risks to crops and infrastructure damage. We’ve already seen the devastating impacts of floods and droughts on the poorest countries in the world. We are not the ones suffering first, but Wales does have a proud history of international solidarity and if we wait until we see the impacts of climate change on our local communities then it will be too late to take action and that will mean a catastrophe for us all.

Thirdly, even if the Welsh target was in line with the science, and did take account of our consumption, the Welsh Government cannot deliver all of these cuts.

This is partly because of the impact we all have as individuals, communities and economic sectors in Wales: the Commission rightfully recognises the important role of behaviour change and the responsibility we all have to cut emissions.

But the other stumbling block is the non-devolved areas that are crucial for Wales to achieve a low carbon economy and society. The most obvious of these are major energy infrastructure and the planning system: without responsibility for power stations and industrial production, how can we hit targets for either producing renewable energy or reducing our emissions from fossil fuels? In addition, many of the necessary financial tools are beyond our reach. We remain UK dependent and climate change remains exceptionally low on the UK Government’s agenda, with the interests of Wales equally low on the list.

In the absence of devolving these powers, the Welsh Government has to engage the UK Government and the UK Climate Change Committee, to agree a route map for reaching both the annual cuts and the wider target of a 40% emissions reduction by 2020 that the National Assembly agreed in 2009.

However, there are a number of important recommendations to the Welsh Government in this report that we fully support, and ask the Welsh Government to act upon as a matter of urgency. These include:

• Ensuring that the carbon impact is considered in all Welsh Government spending decisions; and we’d like to see the government making sure that the carbon impact of policy options is taken into account when deciding which option to pursue;
• Keeping the effectiveness and strength of its emissions targets under annual review to ensure they reflect emerging scientific advice, currently not the case;
• Demonstrating that the One Wales: One Planet ecological footprint consumption target helps drive the work on climate change and behaviour change;
• Supporting delivery of low carbon projects and coherent regional planning;
• Speeding up the transition of Arbed and NEST from small scale schemes to enable large-scale housing retrofit and programmes with national reach;
• A clear investment strategy for promoting sustainable travel and behaviour change.

The Commission stated in its foreword to the Climate Change Strategy that these measures were only a “starting point from which to build” and much more is needed to limit the global temperature rise to no more than the supposedly ‘safe’ level of 2C.

The limits of the report show that we need to face some fundamental changes to the scale of the targets, what they measure, and how we hold decision makers to account as they follow the Welsh Government’s mantra of delivery in this term.

- Haf Elgar is Chair of Stop Climate Chaos Cymru. Stop Climate Chaos Cymru is a coalition of 14 influential Welsh organisations that collectively represents the views of thousands of people in Wales. The main organisations include: Oxfam Cymru, Unison, National Union of Students, Friends of the Earth Cymru, RSPB Cymru, Sustrans Cymru, WWF Cymru, Cafod, Christian Aid Wales, Coed Cadw - the Woodland Trust, Tearfund, National Federation of Women’s Institutes Wales, the Wildlife Trusts Wales and the Centre for Alternative Technology.