Is the UK heading into constitutional freefall?
Bubble — By Mick Antoniw AM on January 17, 2012 10:35 am
All the focus is on Scotland, but what would this current situation mean for Wales?
THE Prime Minister’s recent calamitous attempt to intervene in the Scottish referendum reveals how out of touch he and most of the Tories are on UK Constitutional issues. Perhaps with so few elected representatives outside Southern and central England it is understandable but nevertheless very worrying.
How have we reached a situation where probably an overwhelming majority of the Welsh population would like to retain the UK in some form, yet may end up living in an independent Wales, whatever that means, possibly without their views being taken into account?
Perhaps it is understandable that Cameron doesn’t understand how toxic the Tory label still is in Wales and many parts of the UK; but if so he should have had some idea that all was not well from the frosty almost silent reception he received when he addressed the fourth Welsh Assembly last year.
The problem is that this is not just a Welsh or Scottish issue. It is a UK issue. Where is the thinking that should be taking place to examine what the future UK constitution should look like. Where is the policy discussion? It should be as important to us in Wales as to the English. It is essential that England has stable and confident government. It is in no one’s interest to have this degree of constitutional change taking place without any constitutional strategy or framework. First Minister Carwyn Jones has started thinking about the consequences of a Scottish independence vote but where is the thinking that should be taking place in the main political parties. Labour has so far failed to pronounce any ideological position other than we are stronger together than apart. The Lib Dems cannot understand the difference between federalism and decentralisation. The Tories are just lost on the subject. They don’t understand what is happening. Yet, if you reduce political representation of the smaller nations of the UK, smash the benefits system, and abolish many of the social and economic structures that provided a UK hegemony, it is inevitable that sooner or later you reach a situation where even the most ardent anti-nationalist will say , “what is the point of the UK?”
Even within Plaid Cymru there is confusion as to what independence means and what its relevance is within a global capitalist economy. The only candidate to have pronounced any understanding of the constitutional significance of what is happening and the dire consequences that could emerge is Dafydd Elis Thomas, one of their few directly elected constituency assembly members who is not favourite to win the Plaid leadership. In addition,his recognition of the importance of being in government for a political party is too much of a turn off for many Plaid supporters who would rather revel in the luxury and impotence of eternal opposition.
Our current level of devolution was the product of the detailed and impressive Kilbrandon report published in 1973. There is still time for a Kilbrandon 2. It is inconceivable that we can go on as we have been without an all party, all nation commission to map out the future path of the UK if there is to be one.
Tags: independence, nationalism, Scotland, Wales
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11 Comments
I really do not understand the basis on which you (and I know that you’re not alone in this) can argue that “an overwhelming majority of the Welsh population would like to retain the UK in some form, yet may end up living in an independent Wales, whatever that means, possibly without their views being taken into account?”
What is the mechanism by which Wales becomes an independent country with the majority of people opposed to that outcome? I suppose it could get to the point where idependence ends up looking like the ‘least worst’ option, but even if that were the basis on which people chose it, they’d still be making a choice. (And if we’re honest, choosing the ‘least worst’ option is the basis on which a lot of people select their MP – or AM – isn’t it?)
You discredit your own argument by suggesting that something is a real possibility when it isn’t. I wouldn’t disagree with your call for a constitutional convention (although I think that the Kilbrandon report was ‘more honoured in the breach’, as it were when it came to drawing up the 1997 legislation for the Assembly). And I agree that part of the problem has been the unwillingness of UK parties to engage with the debate and spell out their own visions for the future. Why undermine those valid points with a complete red herring?
The question set by JD above …
“What is the mechanism by which Wales becomes an independent country with the majority of people opposed to that outcome?”
The answer is plain, it is where England decides enough really is enough and raises the drawbridge at Offa’s Dyke.
According to historian John Davies, the building of Offa’s Dyke was in consultation with the Welsh princes and the Mercian king, so- in a way- JT your analogy can go both way: when the people of Wales ‘[decide] enough really is enough and raises the drawbridge at Offa’s Dyke’
I know some polls seem to Indicate English voters woould approve of Scotland (and presumably Wales)leaving thee Union. But can anyone seriously argue when they relaise it will mean they can no longer pretend to be a World power they will go for it.
Theres no point in having a constitutional commission for the whole of the UK until after a Scottish referendum as it would only be seen as a Unionist delaying Tactic.
But we need a Constitutional convention here in Wales to consider what we would do after this referendum irrespective of the outcome.
In many ways by naming Autumn 2014 the die has been cast.
With the Welsh economy on its knees, unemployment going up, schools overcrowded, hospital wards closing, social housing worsening, ah never mind, let Mick Antoniw use his time discussing what we are all really obsessed with ‘the union’, so if Scotland chooses to run its own affairs as an indepedent country, good luck to them but it wont make a bit of difference to why my local hospital is closing down one of its wards despite Labour pre-election promise of not touching the NHS. And Scottish independence won’t make one jot of difference as to why my son has study in a class of 30, crammed like sardines in a tin, so for god’s sake as an AM get on with what you’re supposed to do, improve our lives rather than sqabble about constiutianol matters that most of us don’t really care one way or another!
An interesting article Mick, but it seems to be based on the assumption that people in Scotland will vote for outright independence.
They won’t – they’ll much more likely vote for ‘devo max’ (i.e. full autonomy within the union), as historian Neal Ascherson argued persuasively in last Sunday’s Observer.
However, that would still have big constitutional consequences for the UK and particular implications for Wales – would we then be calling for our own referendum on ‘devo max’? Would we want it? Could such a referendum be won?
Interesting times indeed! Perhaps one of the many issues a ‘Kilbrandon 2′ could consider.
Reading this type of article makes you realise how right Cpl Jones was in Dad’s Army to utter the immortal phrase ‘Don’t Panic’. There really is a long way to go before the fat lady sings in this saga. It’s a long time since I’ve read anything that is so confusing. We start with an opening couple of paragraphs that sees Wales somehow sleepwalking towards independence. I know that drink and drugs have caused real damage in some parts of Wales but most of the people I know are still corpus mentis. We then end up with a party political broadcast on behalf of Dafydd El linked to a comment that Plaid are damned to eternal opposition. We also have the usual stuff about the UK being run by a bunch of public school toffs whose brains have been damaged in the Eton Wall Game. If we are walking towards independence then who the heck is leading the Proletariat to this land of false consciousness I wonder? Answers on the back of a postage stamp.
I think John Tyler hits the nail on the head.
Mick,
This is a valuable contribution to a debate which should be going on across the UK. Cameron, aware that he cannot take on Salmond with very little Scottish Tory opposition, is sleepwalking all ‘Unionists’ into disaster.
The Labour Party has the authority as a UK-wide Party to argue for the Union, but its current leadership seems also to be embedded in an ‘Greater English’ perspective, taking Welsh & Scottish support for granted, as it has always done, despite (and in some ways because) many of its finest leaders coming from these countries.
‘Unionism’ is a dirty word for many Socialists, like you and I, but it needn’t continue to be, now the ‘Irish-English’ problems are effectively ‘managed’, if not resolved, and given the fragile, but continuing EU membership of both the Republic and the UK.
I think Labour should call for a consultative, UK-wide Referendum on the UK constitution, which asks ‘Do you think the UK should be dissolved to allow independence for Scotland and Wales?’ The results for each country could then be declared separately, and, if there is a majority in Scotland, there could be a second, legally-binding Referendum there, asking whether the Scots would prefer continued devolution up to ‘Dev Max’ or to leave the Union altogether. If Wales votes for the dissolution, which is unlikely, it could vote subsequently on the form of self-government it wants.
“Dafydd Elis Thomas, one of their few directly elected constituency assembly members ”
please tell me what significance this has Mick, or are you suggesting that you see regional AMs as lesser status AMs? Careful now!
I thought Labour was a socialist party, for the people, not a bunch of up their own rear end snobs
Andrew,
If I understand you correctly, you think the Scots should only be allowed to vote on their own future if a UK-wide referendum on the UK constitution beforehand votes to let them do so. The thing is, as far as I’m aware (and I’m no legal expert) the Scots don’t have to ask anybody’s permission to decide their own future in their own referendum, and rightly so.
You are right to point out, however, that this debate should be going on across the UK, because it’s going to affect everyone. Wales needs to take a long hard look at itself to see whether it thinks the UK has the answers to its problems. I don’t think we can answer that question with a resounding ‘yes’ based on past performance.
As for the perhaps unexpected emergence of this debate, well, as we know, historical events can take place very quickly. Just look at what happened in 1989, resulting in a number of ‘new’, small independent nations. Regardless of the current Euro crisis, independence should in my opinion be the only aim for Wales if it wants to be taken seriously in future, however shocking this scenario may seem to some.