Holyrood race heats up

Who will capture the flag up north?

FEW among Scotland’s chattering classes gave much credence in 2007 to the idea that the SNP Government could last a full term. It’s testimony to the political skills of the SNP Government not only that it looks set to do just that, but that it has to date managed to deliver 90% of its devolved manifesto from 2007. Yet regardless as to which of Scotland’s big two parties emerges with its nose in front in May, a further stretch of minority government seems almost certain – the question is whether that government will be led by the SNP, or by Labour.

Consider the possibilities, or rather the lack of them: The SNP won’t coalesce with Conservatives; the Lib Dems won’t deal with the SNP; the Conservatives and Lib Dems are too small to deal with eachother; while the Greens and the various socialist sects might not be there to deal with anyone. Meanwhile, Labour won’t deal with the Conservatives, and as for a Labour-Lib Dem tie up, after the ConDem coalition at Westminster that’s about as likely right now as a deal between Labour and the SNP. In other words, we’re talking about the same chances as that of a snowball surviving in hell.

If opinion polls are to be believed, Labour currently enjoys a lead over the SNP for Holyrood, with support down slightly for the Conservatives and drastically so in the case of the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, in spite of the prevailing anti-SNP media narrative of the past four years, support for the party has remained rock-solid at around 32%. It’s hard, therefore, to avoid the conclusion that Labour’s present poll advantage has been built largely upon gaining the favour of Lib Dem voters who, to use a phrase, no longer agree with Nick.

It’s unclear why support for the Scottish Tories should be falling, other than that the party retains a sizable number of supporters who will vote at a UK General Election but don’t bother for Holyrood. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, are in serious trouble in Scotland – their alliance with the Conservatives at Westminster having alienated many of the supporters they won from Labour in recent years over issues such as Iraq and student funding.

It seems perverse that Labour in Scotland should be the chief beneficiary of dissatisfaction with the coalition at Westminster. After all, the most unpopular steps taken to date by the coalition in cutting public spending and increasing VAT were also measures which Labour would have enacted if returned to office last May. Yet still the good ship Scottish Labour sails on, apparently untainted by responsibility for the mess left behind by their Westminster colleagues, and seemingly unencumbered by much notion of what it might actually want to do if in a position to form an administration in May.

It would be churlish not to recognise the way that Scottish Labour has managed to turn itself round from the utter shambles it was throughout 2007/08. The period which saw Gordon Brown at his lowest ebb, alongside the chaos of Wendy Alexander’s brief tenure at the top in Holyrood, really did seem as if Labour in Scotland could be down and out for a generation or more. It’s easy to forget the sheer panic that the SNP’s victory in the Glasgow East by-election caused in Labour ranks. After all, if Labour couldn’t hold onto what was their third safest Westminster seat, was there anywhere left in Scotland that they could hang on to?

Whatever else might be said about him, the Leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray, has certainly played his part in steadying the ship. He has since his elevation launched a series of bitter attacks on Alex Salmond in an effort to try and dent the latter’s standing. While many Labour MSPs give the impression of detesting Alex Salmond, its a sentiment well out of step with mainstream opinion.  Salmond remains very popular with the public at large – arguably more so in some respects than the party he leads. Given Team Gray’s relative invisibility in the public recognition stakes, you get the feeling that SNP strategists aren’t exactly despondent at their main opponents going so far out of their way to invite comparison between the two men and their chosen front bench teams.

Its not only Alex Salmond who has felt the rough edge of Mr Gray’s tongue. In his haste to ridicule the idea of Scottish Independence, Gray seized in the aftermath of the banking crisis the idea of an “arc of insolvency” – a reference to SNP boasts that smaller European countries were often more prosperous than their larger neighbours. While Ireland and Iceland have born the brunt of Labour ridicule, a line was crossed when Gray delivered a withering assessment of Montenegro’s national credentials, which resulted in a stiff rebuke from the Montenegrin Ambassador for his troubles.

After its previous chaotic approach, Labour has adopted a robust oppositional approach, designed to stymie the Scottish Government wherever possible – even occasionally at the risk of inconsistency. Government plans to introduce a minimum unit price for alcohol were thrown out by Holyrood, just weeks before the Westminster Coalition promised to bring in its own minimum pricing policy. The biggest criticism of minimum pricing from Labour was that it would increase supermarket profits, yet when the SNP suggested a £30m levy on large retailers to help assist small businesses, it was opposed by Labour on the grounds that it would damage the same supermarket profits it had apparently been so keen to suppress earlier.

In a similar vein, Labour has been scathing on the SNP’s supposed “soft touch” approach to crime, despite having opposed the SNP’s recruitment of 1,000 additional police officers across Scotland – a policy which has helped result in reducing crime figures to a 30 year low. Elsewhere, the party has tried to play the divide and rule tactic – accusing the SNP of discriminating financially against Glasgow to the benefit of Edinburgh and Aberdeen, while simultaneously accusing the SNP of discriminating in favour of Glasgow when campaigning in Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

Opportunist and a narrative of dogwhistles it may be, but Labour strategists know as well as their SNP counterparts that the election can be won by just a handful of voters in a handful of seats. It’s not pretty, but it’s helped Labour to hold its ground and in terms of putting the party in a position to win back power, has been more successful to date than party strategists could ever have dared hope for. It’s almost like the party has been fighting a two-term strategy to return to power, yet now finds that it might get there earlier than it thought, without having done the necessary policy heavy lifting in advance.

Yet if the the Scottish Government has found its guns spiked on certain important measures recently, when it comes to the constitution, it’s the SNP which has made all the running. The Calman Commission might have been set up by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives and the resulting Scotland Bill might be being introduced at Westminster. Underwhelming the proposals might be, but none of it would be happening at all had it not been for the SNP winning in 2007. Even the pros and cons of the ill-fated Independence referendum, which was a ‘distraction’ in these tough economic times, will get another airing in the weeks ahead as Scottish voters are prepared for a referendum on a voting system which nobody really wants.

Meanwhile, the SNP is running with the theme that it has governed Scotland competently and effectively. It has frozen the Council Tax; scrapped PFI; boosted renewable energy approvals while opposing new build nuclear power stations; increased the number of schools being built or refurbished; delivered record low class sizes; is abolishing prescription charges; has ended right to buy, kickstarting a new generation of local authority housing; while funding properly for the first time the policies of free personal care for the elderly and free bus travel for senior citizens.

It’s a solid record, and is one which shows that the party has been willing to ruffle the feathers of more than a few vested interests along the way. In view of the Westminster consensus over charging students for their tuition, the need to make a dash for new nuclear power and to further marketise the public realm, there’s certainly scope, even in straightened times, for the alternative SNP approach which protects the public service and social democratic ethos for which Scots continually express a preference.

Will it be enough, though? To win, the SNP has to be positive enough to show that it is worthy of a second term, while being just negative enough to see off Labour’s attacks. Most people are generally either satisfied or neutral about the SNP’s time in office, while Labour’s chosen battleground issues seem designed more to fire up their core support than to reach out to the voters of ‘middle Scotland’ who deserted them last time.

The biggest challenge remains one for Labour, which sooner rather than later is going to have to start setting out some plans of its own. Holding together its present fragile coalition of support, while demonstrating that it aspires to speak for more than just the heartlands it was so panicked about losing just a couple of years ago will take some doing – with or without the continued goodwill of the Scottish media establishment.