Time to wake up for Wales
Bubble — By Daran Hill on August 5, 2010 7:00 am
A country divided in 1997: will the win in 2011 be more emphatic?
AS A very young teenager, I served in 1997 as the National Organiser of the Yes for Wales campaign. It was a salutary experience which I shall never repeat. Others in this room will carry that baton on.
I have been asked to speak today on winning a referendum campaign. How to do so is a question people have posed to me regularly in recent months. No one has a definitive answer – after all, only 51% of referenda posed by any government result in a positive answer.
Yet, to coin a well used phrase, we are where we are. And to move forward we need to learn from the successes and failures of the past.
The first thing I wish to stress is that people answer their own question when they vote in a referendum. 1997 was as much about reaffirming the existence of a modern Wales as it was about creating a political institution. It was also an affirmation of the popularity of a newly elected Labour government. In Yes for Wales we funded a plane to fly over the South Wales with the banner “Vote Yes, Vote Blair” trailing behind. Those words were not chosen because either “devolution” or “referendum” was too long to fit on the cloth. The political environment in which the new question will be posed will be as critical to success as any campaign to explain the subtleties of the proposition.
On the negative side of the argument, those opposed to establishing devolution in the first place or extending it now aren’t too choosy about the arguments they deploy either. The one they now seem to trot out most often is that voting to extend the legislative powers of the Assembly is a further step on the “slippery slope” to independence. Utter tosh. The real battle they want to relive is the existence of the Assembly in the first place. The only thing that unites a No campaign now is the same thing that united them 13 years ago: the abolition of the National Assembly. There can surely be no common ground other than a desire to not just stop the Assembly increasing its legislative powers, but also to reduce powers in the future, and work together toward the total abolition of the Assembly as an institution.
But it is important to have an opposition in a referendum campaign, and I welcome the existence of True Wales. It was a major problem for democracy back in 1997 that for the first few months there was no No campaign in existence. Rules of balance in TV reporting was as much of a contributory factor to the creation of Just Say No as anything else.
Politics has moved on from 1997. We are in a different world now, where there is support for further Assembly powers from all four parties in Wales. I accept the Conservative Party will have a free vote on the matter and is deeply split. I accept that Labour is still divided too, and that some in that party will vote and campaign against. That does not alarm me.
What would alarm me more is if the entire main political party system endorsed more powers. Elitism was the most successful smear in 1997, and will be again when the next referendum comes. We need to be ready to face that down.
Thinking back to 1997, one of the things I think we got very right was that we were able to move so quickly. The embryo Yes for Wales campaign was up and running in January and launched properly immediately after the May General Election. We then focused on local groups and strands of society to take the message forward, such as Teachers Say Yes or the Yes Ministers. I first met Carwyn at that time – his energy and shrewdness in chairing the Bridgend Says Yes campaign contributed to a clear victory – and I know he will bring these same skills to bear when the referendum comes next year.
Ah, next year? It seems a long way away doesn’t it? Well, it isn’t. Those co-ordinating the Yes side this time have had the luxury of time in a way we did not in 1997. But the clock is ticking and everyone needs to move up a gear now.
Let me ask every one in this room a simple question: what have you done in the last six months to help secure a positive outcome in the coming referendum? For most of us, the answer must surely be “Not enough” or we would be able to sense more of a campaign.
Back in 1997 John Major fought a General Election campaign calling on people to “Wake up, wake up” and defend the constitution. He saw in devolution the end of the UK. It clearly is not, of course. But he warned against sleepwalking into a disaster.
His words have stayed with me for two reasons. Firstly, because those opposed to constitutional progress will peddle any lie they can to scare people into resisting change. They have done it before and they will do it again.
Secondly, remember those words: “Wake up, wake up.” It is time for us all to wake up too. Wake up to the fact this campaign needs to start properly. Wake up to the way in which the No campaign is already organizing and spreading lies. Wake up to the fact that we need to pull together on the right side of this argument.
And wake up to the fact that this isn’t a foregone conclusion: this referendum won’t win itself.
Let this Eisteddfod in Blaenau Gwent be one set firmly in the radical political tradition of Wales. Let it be the one where we woke up and fought for Wales.
Tags: campaigning, devolution, Eisteddfod, referendum, True Wales
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89 Comments
Daran Hill
“using the slippery slope argument long before One Wales”
And they were right to do so. The skiers have their skis on and are now approaching a jump, the referendum. If they jump that they will then proceed to the next jump and so on until they reach their desired end. No one is arguing against their right to do so, but there are very many who do not want to go in their direction. They have the right to object.
Gez Kirby
“to argue for a no vote smacks of desperation.”
Even if that were the case there should be, as Daran points out, a group who puts the case. In a democracy even in a socialist one-party environment, representatives are delegated to put the case of the people who sent them. The delegate may not agree with the argument but they are required to put the case. The AMs are not just there to represent their own point of view or conform to the party line, they are there to represent the people who elected them, of whom – according to the polls – 34% do not agree with the move to Part 4. That there are no AM who supports the case against Part 4 says more about the AMs than the electorate.
“conflict with every authoritative opinion poll”
In previous postings on Waleshomes I have accepted that the polls INDICATE trends. I have also pointed out that the polls for the two previous referenda have shown the vote flavouring devolution indicated a win by a sizeable majority. The first poll was wrong and the second almost by 11 points. There was great rejoicing in the ‘yes’ camp when the poll earlier this year showed for the first time that more than half of the electorate would vote ‘yes’ and only 28% would vote ‘no’. The most recent poll shows a reversal with 49% reported as intending to vote ‘yes’ and 34% to vote ‘no’. If we adjust the ‘yes’ vote by 11 points the figure is 38% to 34% with a move towards ‘no’ and seven months to go.
True Wales have now conducted a large number of pavement surveys and we have asked ourselves how accurate can they be, by way of INDICATION. After examining the results from many occasions the conclusion is, not because we are stupid or inept, ‘We are unable to match the results of the polls.’ It is in our interest to measure opinion as accurately as we can, and at this stage we have confidence in the method and result.
Which polls are these? The polls released just prior the 1979 referendum indicated a sizeable majority for the No campaign… while the last poll to be released before the 1997 referendum placed the yes side ahead by just 6 points….so I dont not understand where this arbitary adjustment of 11 points comes from…….
Yes, polls can indicate trends….so it’s revealing to point out that the percentage of those opposed to the Welsh Assembly gaining primary lawmaking powers was lower by a point in last months poll than it had been in the poll released on St David’s Day…while a Yougov poll released in November last year showed only a 5 point lead for the yes side of the argument…..42 percent to 37 perecent………..so the trend would seem to indicate that opposition to the move from part 3 to part 4 is dropping off…….
*Sighs* – Come on, Len. “In a democracy even in a socialist one-party environment, representatives are delegated to put the case of the people who sent them. The delegate may not agree with the argument but they are required to put the case. The AMs are not just there to represent their own point of view or conform to the party line, they are there to represent the people who elected them, of whom – according to the polls – 34% do not agree with the move to Part 4.” Neither our Assembly, nor Parliament, are delegate-style democracies (as was, for example, the Paris Commune) – whereby delegates are mandated by their constituents on issues.
You’re well aware that the UK polity is based on REPRESENTATIVE democracy, where AMs/MPs present their manifestos to voters at elections and, if elected, work to implement their policies. They seek to balance representing the interests of constituents with representing their views.
You cite 34% who don’t agree with a move to Part 4. Are you really saying that our AMs should spend two-thirds of their time in favour of a yes referendum vote, and one-third of their time opposing it?! You KNOW your “delegate” argument is yet another red herring. But this seems to be the perennial tactic of True Wales – keep on inventing paper tiger arguments, throwing red herrings into the debate, in the hope that enough mud will stick to scare the voters.
As for your “pavement surveys”, I’m delighted to learn that you “have confidence in the method and result”. And I’m not surprised to note that you don’t claim any psephological legitimacy for your approach.
Do your worst with your distortions, True Wales. The Yes campaign will do its best. And we’ll all see what the actual referendum result brings us.
Interesting that certain people are discrediting Len Gibbs’ pavement surveys yet in the next sentence pointing to the Yougov/university of Aberystwyth poll as the gold standard. That particular poll sampled 44% Welsh speakers and highlights in its breakdown and methodology that speaking Welsh is an enormous confounding factor for intention of voting Plaid. Now Plaid voters against further powers are a pretty rare breed wouldnt you say.
The entire report was unrepresentative and biased. It would have been ripped to shreds if we had a critical media like they do over the border.
“That particular poll sampled 44% welsh speakers” claims Henry R……can i ask how you arrived at that figure or where it can be found? As ive looked at that poll very closely and have found no reference anywhere to 44 percent of the sample being ‘welsh speakers”……..the yougov rolling poll they are conducting on the level of public support for lawmaking powers for the assembly brackets people under party affiliations, gender, age, social class and region of wales….i cannot find any reference to peoples first langauge in the poll……..
Len, you previously wrote in this thread: “Get the independence party out of WAG and the ‘Yes’ campaign and the slippery slope argument will go. Until then, it stays.”
Then I came back and wrote: “Maybe for you, Len, but not for those you side with. Those opposed to devolution – and this includes a section of Welsh Labour – were using the slippery slope argument long before One Wales.”
Then you returned: “And they were right to do so. The skiers have their skis on and are now approaching a jump, the referendum. If they jump that they will then proceed to the next jump and so on until they reach their desired end. No one is arguing against their right to do so, but there are very many who do not want to go in their direction. They have the right to object.”
So which is it? Slippery slope or not? I don’t agree with the analysis implicit in the former but at least it has more logical coherence than blaming this all on Plaid?
Daran Hill
“blaming this all on Plaid?”
I’m not. I grant Plaid the right to hold that opinion and to seek that end.
However, the end is not one that most people want to reach.
The problem lies in the fact that Plaid is a member of the One Wales WAG and as a condition of supporting Labour they required a referendum on Part 4 before Part 3 was active. In this circumstance it is not possible to disassociate the intention of Plaid from the ‘process of devolution’.
The fact that Labour were willing to accept the condition of a referendum and are now promoting what can be regarded as a step in the process to independence makes the slippery slope a consideration.
A line has to be drawn in the sand at sometime and as this is probably the last opportunity the electorate will have to express its opinion directly, now is an appropriate time to draw the line.
The problem has been increased by Carwyn Jones’ call to find something other than the issues directly involved in Part3/4 so as to rouse people to vote. It is this type of development that is of great concern. If the ‘Yes’ campaign is not going to be about Part3/4 what is it going to be other than a step towards and a slip down the slope?
Eternal vigilance and all that.
The overwhelming difficulty for the No campaign is that the referendum next year will not be about ‘independence’ or any such thing! The Welsh electorate will be asked to vote on moving from part 3 to part 4, which as we all know will basically mean the welsh assembly gaining direct lawmaking powers over devolved matters. It will do away with the current costly, cumbersome and time consming LCO process and make devolution more efficient and more effective…it wil in effect make devolution work better. Thats why all the main partys at the assembly – includig the individual who led the No campaign in 1997 – are in favour of this move and will be supporting a yes vote in the referendum campaign.
The referendum has nothing to do with ‘independence’ and the welsh electorate are perfectly well aware of that. As they are aware that the northern irish assembly enjoys primary lawmaking powers and that this development was supported by ulster unionists like peter robinson – who could hardly be accused of supporting moves to set northern ireland on any kind of ‘slippery slope’. It is simply that primary lawmaking powers over devolved areas are an essential part of effective and efficient devolution
Of course those who are opposed to devolution for wales in its entirety are opposed to this development ….they’ve no interest in seeing devolution work more effectively and efficiently because they do not believe in devolution for wales or the existence of the welsh assembly at all
“I’m not. I grant Plaid the right to hold that opinion and to seek that end.
However, the end is not one that most people want to reach.
The problem lies in the fact that Plaid is a member of the One Wales WAG and as a condition of supporting Labour they required a referendum on Part 4 before Part 3 was active. In this circumstance it is not possible to disassociate the intention of Plaid from the ‘process of devolution’.
The fact that Labour were willing to accept the condition of a referendum and are now promoting what can be regarded as a step in the process to independence makes the slippery slope a consideration.
A line has to be drawn in the sand at sometime and as this is probably the last opportunity the electorate will have to express its opinion directly, now is an appropriate time to draw the line.”
Where to begin.
“”I’m not. I grant Plaid the right to hold that opinion and to seek that end.
However, the end is not one that most people want to reach.”
Thanks for granting us the right to have our opinions, very kind. At the moment the majority of people don’t want independence, but I would argue that currently there is a multi choice vote on that so to speak. Naturally you will get some uplift in votes for further devolution every time it does advance, because you have less options to choose from. Scotland has three ‘choices’ now – status quo, devolution max, independence.
“A line has to be drawn in the sand at sometime and as this is probably the last opportunity the electorate will have to express its opinion directly, now is an appropriate time to draw the line. ”
You don’t really think that do you? I ask because it borders on comical that this would be the last chance for the Welsh voter to choose the end game for devolution. In fact it is false and a lie. Given the GoW Act, you could in theory draw down these powers over time regardless of whether we win this referendum through the LCO system.
To argue that we all must decide today the exact and final destination in devolution because Len ‘grants us’ the opportunity to have our opinion is offensive. Besides those of us who support independence, I would hazard a guess that a good deal of the readers and commenters here are willing to react to changing circumstances to go with their deeply held views.
The question I have for all True Wales activists is this – if we see the rise of English devolution and the moves to make England more of a single entity, what will be your response? I mean, would you say ‘please England, please keep ruling over us, please don’t choose to have your own parliament?’ I would be very interested to hear the arguments when England is telling us to have our own powers.
The vast majority Marcus. In fact I would suggest that the bogeyman of independence is an irrelevance to almost everyone in Wales.
No one is stopping you from talking about it, I just get a bit annoyed when it dominates proceedings on this site. Is it any wonder we get the slippery slope argument, when Nationalists miss no opportunity to pretend it is ever growing cause?
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the research quoted in Dafydd Ellis Thomas ‘s speech at last week’s Eisteddfod. The research suggests that 51% claimed that they will definitely vote and the breakdown is 47% for yes and 40% for no.
Rather than arguing who is peddling lies ( and let’s face it this has all the merits of the pot calling the kettle black level of political debate) perhaps it would be far better for those who support yes to actually set out the positive reasons for speeding up the legislative process because except for the symbolism in practical terms that is all that will be on offer in next year’s referendum.
“……can i ask how you arrived at that figure or where it can be found? As ive looked at that poll very closely and have found no reference anywhere to 44 percent of the sample being ‘welsh speakers”……..”
Not looking very hard then….
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/UniversityofAberystwyth_23-Oct-2009.pdf
The percentage totals are on page 20 and ability to speak welsh is cross-referenced on every even-numbered page.
Add the ‘yes fluently’ and ‘yes but not fluently’ percentages together and you’ll see the figure is completely at odds with any census figure that has ever gone before. In fact its around double!!
Now cross reference Welsh speaking ability with those who intend to vote plaid (page 2) and then cross reference those who intend to vote Plaid against those intending to vote Yes to further powers (page 3). Finally cross reference those who intend to vote yes against Welsh speaking ability (page 4).
Is the penny starting to drop yet?? What you are seeing is the very strong impact of a confounding factor which directly relates to opinion on further powers for the Assembly. As I’ve already said, that confounding factor is ability to speak Welsh. Now that is to be expected and no big deal for any piece of research worth it’s salt… you simply account for it in the methodology. As it is such a powerful confounding factor, the methodolgy should either weight correctly or ensure that a representative (to real life in Wales) number of Welsh speakers is sampled. This particular piece of research does neither and in fact samples a massively unrepresentative figure of 44% of people who said yes they could speak Welsh either fluently or not fluently.
As I said, it’s unrepresentative and has clearly suffered from the Aberystwyth effect. I wouldnt pin too much on it. Only the referendum itself will shine light on this subject.
Marcus Warner
Once Part 4 is in place there is no further legislative procedure for a future referendum. The argument of IWA to the House of Lords is that the vote in 1997 was sufficient to move to Part 4 without a referendum and that there will be no need for a referendum on the issue of independence. The decision would reside with the Assembly. This is why the March 2011 referendum is so important. It will determine the political structure and future for Wales. With this in mind the population should be asked to consider the nature of the power granted to the Assembly in view of an ultimate destination.
Tomorrow’s Wales manifesto together with speeches by their Chairman clearly call for the full implementation of the Richard’s Commission and a new GOWA 2012. This is necessary because even if things stay at Part 3 and all the powers in GOQA 2006 are drawn down the Assembly will be an Assembly and not a Parliament. Part 4 confers primary law-making power on a Parliament that could then introduce a GOWA 2012 and implement the Richard’s Commission’s recommendations.
As to the English separation I have written a skit on this blog outlining the scenario. A comment made being ‘funny but disturbing’. A fuller version can be read on:-
http://www.truewalesnocampaign.org.uk/True_Wales_No_Campaign/Grassroots_Comment.html
The English Democratic Party website outlines the case. They are, so I understand, putting up Assembly candidates in Monmouth and elsewhere in May 2011.
Jeff Jones
“speeding up the legislative process”
Carwyn Jones appears to have decided that this is a key argument in the ‘Yes’ campaign. He sees the case for moving to Part 4 as something that will not get people out to vote. I can’t see people getting excited about the AMs having the job made easier.
Henry R
Your comment on the poll figures is apposite. Generally, in our pavement surveys, we have found that the majority of people who speak Welsh (but not all) indicate a preference for a move to Part 4. The number of Welsh speakers allowed in a poll will therefore effect the result. If the latest census is to be accepted as to the number of people who have some ability to speak or read Welsh (a self-declaration by the individual) then the 44 percent is an over-representation and the result unreliable. This is a part of the reason why we are unable to match the results of the polls.
Some of the pavement results have been published on the True Wales site:
http://www.truewales.org.uk/en/true_wales_campaign.html
The survey I took in Penarth in early July has been released and it was 38% abolish the Assembly, 18% to stay as it is, 24% move to Part 4, 10% for independence and 10% undecided.
Daran, as far as we can discover, you have a very difficult fight on your hands.
well just as i thought there is no evidence whatsoever to back up Henry r’s claim that 44 percent of those questioned in the latest yougov poll were welsh speakers…a figure clearly pulled out of the air! While it is interesting ‘that len gibbs uses the term ‘allowed in a poll’ with regard to welsh speakers….are we to take it that there is some reason why len gibbs believes ‘welsh speakers’ should not be allowed to participate in these polls?…a frankly astonishing position if that is the case……….and of course one that is deeply offensive to welsh speakers…..
As regards true wales alleged ‘poll findings’ does len gibbs seriously expect anybody to accept the bogus poll findings of an organisation that is vehemently opposed to devolution and which would like to see the welsh assembly abolshed………. i somehow think not………Also i wasnt aware that true wales also doubled up as a polling company when not campaigning for the assembly’s abolition? Cymru Yfory in swansea have spoken to many people in my own locality about the proposed referendum but i wouldnt attempt to present the responses we’ve had….which have been mostly in favour by the way……as being scientific evidence of peoples voting intentions in the referendum………..if i did im sure it would be rightly dismissed as being anecdotal and not based on any hard evidence……just as any true wales ‘poll findings’ should be……..
“it would be far better for those who support yes to actually set out the positive reasons for speeding up the legislative process because except for the symbolism in practical terms that is all that will be on offer in next year’s referendum”…asks jeff jones.
Well the 3 year delay inflicted by westminister on essential housing legislation requested by the welsh assembly is a compelling example and reason as it illustrates perfectly the current time consuming, cumbersome, costly and wholly unfair set up whereby westminister can delay or even block outright legisaltion welsh assembly members wish to enact on devolved matters – legislation incidentally that the party’s in the assembly may already have put before the welsh electorate for approval in the form of policies included in their manifestos……presumably thats among the chief reasons why every party and member of the welsh assembly…even the leader of the No campign in 1997…………is supporting a Yes vote……speeding up this process is not ‘symbolic’…it is very practical ……..as those in real housing need in wales could testify…….
Perhaps Leigh you could give us a list of the proposed legislation just waiting on the stocks for full lawmaking powers. In reality the LCO on housing will not build one new house. As for suspending the right to buy the horse has already bolted on that issue and I don’t see many local authorities applying for the powers to suspend the right to buy. The other problem with new laws which many people often forget is that they also often come with a cost. In Scotland, for example, the Scottish government set out by law its target to reduce carbon emissions by 2020. During its deliberations the Independent Budget Review Group asked for a figure for how much it would cost the Scottish government to implement this law. The answer: £8 billion. One of the criticisms often made in Scotland about the Scottish Parliament is that it has produced too many new laws since its inception. There is a danger as even the UK Parliament has shown in the criminal justice area that producing new laws is seen as the solution to everything. It isn’t.
There is also the issue of the law of unintended consequences to take into account. The sprinkler LCO which will ensure that all new home have sprinkler systems will only apply to Wales. It means that in practice building a home in Wales will now have an added cost of about £2,000. This is on top of the increasing costs in Wales caused by the Assembly’s dash to produce more sustainable housing faster than England. In practice therefore a social housing association will have less money to spend on new houses than a similar association in England. That’s of course assuming that it has any money at all given the scale of the cuts expected in the next few years. Yesterday’s leak of a £2 billion cut by the MoJ in its £9 billion budget gives a foretaste of what the Assembly can expect in its budgets from 2011 onwards. New law making powers will not be of much use in this environment.
On the poltical front persuading people that speeding up issues such as the Housing LCO is important is a very difficult one when it doesn’t really have an effect on the lives of the majority. My view is that if the referendum is held on a separate day as looks likely the turnout could be very low because it wil be very difficult to motivate voters to vote. In those circumstances opinion polls are not the best guide to the actual result particularly given the possible margin of error.
Finally, political debate this autumn is going to be dominated by the run up to the Comprehensive Spending review on October 20. It’s the issue as far as I can gather from my conversations which will become the focus for the media in Wales. After that date it will be dominated by debate about the priorities set out by the One Wales Coalition in its budget and their effect on the public sector. This will run over Christmas and into the new year. The story that will dominate the headlines will be the effect of the first real cuts in the public sector since the 1990s. This isn’t exactly the perfect atmosphere to conduct any campaign on a constitutional issue, I’m afraid.
Mr Richards at 1.39 am above wrote …
… the 3 year delay inflicted by Westminster on essential housing legislation … etc.
“Do the voters believe that living in Wales should prevent tenants of social housing from having the same rights to buy as those people elsewhere in the UK.”
Might this be a rhetorical question put to the electorate prior to the referendum by those of the “No” campaign.
The “No” campaign will be able to say during debate … “Westminster protected the electorate from the excesses of welsh politics using the current LCO method”.
… and of course there is no defence by the “Yes” group, if the original legislation had gone through without scrutiny and subsequent modification, Wales politics would have created a second class of citizenship in the United Kingdom.
“well just as i thought there is no evidence whatsoever to back up Henry r’s claim that 44 percent of those questioned in the latest yougov poll were welsh speakers…a figure clearly pulled out of the air!”
Leigh Richards I gave you evidence presented on page 20 of the yougov report itself. I provided a link to the .pdf report!! What more do you want?!?
I guess there is a lot of truth in the saying that there is none so blind as those that don’t want to see.
The fervency and denial of some of you Welsh nationalists truly scares me. Look at my link and look at the pages i’ve quoted. Obviously research methodology is not your strong point but are you still saying that to sample 44% Welsh speakers in a poll about further powers is representative?
well jeff i am personally not in a position to give a ‘full list’ of proposed legislation waiting to be implimented in the event of a Yes vote in the referendum – but im sure Wales four major parties would be able to answer that query. Regarding your observations on both the timing of the referendum and the likelehood of a yes vote events could of course prove you to be correct – i do not discount the possibility that it could be lost as any referendum can be lost. But i remain confident in the case for a yes vote based on a number of factors. Yes those opinion polls – as they have consistently shown a sizeable lead for the Yes side for some time now. My own encounters and conversations with voters – yes anecdotal admittedly – and also the fact that it will be very hard for the no campaign to argue against changes which will in effect make the system of devolution more efficient and more effective.
While john tyler is wrong in claiming that Wales is the only part of the uk where a change to the ‘right to buy’ is being made – though of course in wales it is merely being suspended rather than abolished. – as the so called right to buy is being abolished in its entirety in scotland.
leigh richards
12:03 am
Although I am on the opposite of the fence, I welcome the debating arena Waleshome provides.
In a political debate emphasis and selection is an inevitable and useful tool in presenting and examining points of view, but making wild and inaccurate statements is unnecessary.
1) “believes ‘welsh speakers’ should not be allowed to participate in these polls.”
My wife has, to the Census question, ‘ability in the Welsh language’. The fact that I acknowledge a bias in political preference by many who speak Welsh does not mean that I would deprive them of their democratic right. The bias however is a factor in assesing the likely outcome. My wife intends to vote ‘no’.
2) “vehemently opposed to devolution”
You obviously haven’t read the comments on past debates in which I have explained at length that True Wales may have among its numbers those who would abolish the Assembly but it is NOT the policy of True Wales to campaign or advocate the abolition of the Assembly. True Wales has a different take on devolution that is express in the True Devolution Charter.
3) “scientific evidence of peoples voting intentions”
Having been in marketing for thirty years I am keenly aware of the limitations of market research and polling. There isn’t one way to conduct market research or polling. All pre-event questioning has the limitation of not being made at the point of decision. True Wales has a rolling survey that is now large in numbers interviewed and there is a consistency in the replies to the four options we provide. You may think the result is wrong but it is consistent…and that indicates trend whatever the margin of error.
1:39 am
“essential housing legislation”
The legislation, whenever it was passed would not increase the number of houses built. The legislation is largely technical and when first presented not well considered and that is the fault of those who prepared the application. Some of the delay was about the ‘right to buy’ which is the undoing of an UK wide benefit. There is the possibility that this could be challenged in the courts on the grounds of unfairness. The administrative delays that were due to Westminster according to Peter Hain and Hywel Francis have been dealt with and such delay will not occur again. The problem that the legislation intended to be delt with is not isolated to Wales alone. I know of a couple who have had to move to Wales from Cornwall because they cannot afford housing in their home county.
These technical issues are not going to motivate people to come out and vote.
“speeding up this process is not ‘symbolic’…it is very practical”
Fast bad legislation is not as good as slow prudent legislation.
“even the leader of the No campaign in 1997”
The voters who he purports to represent will have something to say on that matter in May 2011.
In terms of increasing the number of homes available the suspension of the right to buy is a red herring and a classic example of gesture politics. What is stopping young people in particular getting on the housing ladder is a combination of factors. Historically the boom in the house prices might have increased the wealth of baby boomers but it has effectively priced a great deal of housing out of the reach of many young people. Planning restrictions and the attitude of some counicillors have also made it much harder to build houses. Recently in England the need of regional housing targets has seen planning applications for over 7500 houses turned down by local authorities.
I do not doubt the support of many in Plaid for social housing . But recently Plaid councillors in one authority voted en bloc to try to stop a housing development even though the land had been allocated under the authority’s UDP for housing. The local Plaid councillors had even put in their manifesto that they were determined to stop any more housing in the ward. In another authority I was astonished to listen to one councillor who sadly was also a member of Plaid describe how he didn’t want houses built for ‘ foreigners’. Attitudes to social and intermediate housing in many parts of Wales often reflects the prejudices of some councillors who still believe that the only form of housing worth having is a privately owned home and don’t understand the difficulties many people have in obtaining a mortgage in the present climate.
Solving the housing crisis in Wales needs a lot more than an LCO.
Two points Mr Richards …
First, are you misleading others by re-writing my words to read “… Wales is the only part of the UK etc…”
I used the expression “… having the same rights to buy as those people elsewhere in the UK.”
Second, where you write “… though of course in Wales it is merely being suspended rather than abolished.”
This was following a re-write of the proposed legislation, originally the Labour-Plaid coalition intended to abolish the “Right to Buy”.
There is only one solution to the shortfall of housing to meet needs, build more and build them quickly, I believe that the Conservatives of the 1940′s/50′s demonstrated how to do just that.
Henry r – yes i have seen the link you provided and the first thing that needs to be said is that does not refer to the poll that i refered to – the yougove poll released in july. It refers to a poll conducted almost a year ago. Even if we set aside the fact its not the poll i was actually refering to nowhere in the poll given does it state that 44 percent of respondents were welsh speakers – that figure is the result of your own labrinthyne and convoluted interpretations.
Len gibbs – yes i too I welcome the debating arena Waleshome provides and while i am on the opposite side of the debate to yourself.i obviously respect your right to challenge arguments in favour of primary lawmaking powers for the assembly and your right to campaign against such a proposal but if you want to chastise people about making ‘wild and inaccurate statements’ you should start with some of your colleages in true wales who frankly are world beaters in the art of making wild and inaccurate statements
Yes jeff solving the housing crisis in wales will need more than the housing LCO – if we are to solve the housing crisis in wales we need to build more social housing……..a lot more!!!!
“Solving the housing crisis in Wales needs a lot more than an LCO.”
Maybe so, but you would have been happy to delay the LCO anyway?
leigh richards
“your colleages in true wales”
From the rich diversity that is Wales, True Wales has supporters with personal opinions and approaches to the expression of their views. I would not suppress that as I am not someone who would use terms such as ‘foreigners’ of people born in Wales. Reasonableness mixed with prodding is acceptable.
Illtyd Luke
“Solving the housing crisis in Wales needs a lot more than an LCO.”
Maybe so, but you would have been happy to delay the LCO anyway?
The legislation has not delayed or will advance the building of one single unit of social housing. The conditions of let being the main issue. As pointed out, for some it is a case of “No Foreigners Allowed”.
The True Wales web site suggests that people are disconnected from politics and do not know who their local AM is. Then people do not know who their local councilor is, and vote in smaller number at local elections than even at Assembly ones. For example the turnout in one area of Cardiff at the last local election was 16%. Should we abolish local government?
“nowhere in the poll given does it state that 44 percent of respondents were welsh speakers”
It does! It’s there in black and white on page 20 Leigh Richards!
My comment relates to the all polls…. I did not have a particular one in mind and simply used this one as an example as I have the full methodology and breakdown of the results available to me.
Please provide a similar link to the methodology and breakdown of the results for the poll you are talking about and then we can all see if that one is also unrepresentative of the make-up of the Welsh public.
“The legislation has not delayed or will advance the building of one single unit of social housing. The conditions of let being the main issue. As pointed out, for some it is a case of “No Foreigners Allowed”.”
That is untrue- you are seizing on every offhand comment and anecdote to try and undermine in this case the mere prospect of Welsh politicians making laws. What you are trying to do is attempt to create a smokescreen, so you are hinting that there may even be racist reasons behind Welsh housing law, when really that allegation comes from one of Jeff Jones’ infamous and frequent offhand anecdotes rather than anything methodological.
Henry you have chosen to categorize everyone who has indiicated they can speak some welsh as being ‘welsh speakers’ ………however little that may actually be……..not very methodological!!!! .if you define ‘welsh speakers’ as being people who regard welsh as being their ‘first’ language…..the figure is 8 percent!!! But if we take ‘fluent’ as being a fair reflection of the categorization ‘welsh speakers’ the figure is 18 percent……nowhere near the 44 percent you have repeatedly claimed……
Here’s the link to the july yougov poll which i was refering to
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/NON_TRACKER_YG-Pol-ITVwales-VotingIntention-280710.pdf
queries regarding its methodolgy shouild be made to Yougov……..im sure they would be interested to hear from you
Len Gibbs i have to comment the only people in wales i have heard refering to ‘foreigners’ in relation to any discussion on housing are the fascist BNP……..who of course are also opposed to lawmaking powers for the welsh assembly and are also in favour of abolishing the welsh assembly……..as you readily admit your colleages in true wales are!!!!
Sorry Illtyd. It’s not an anecdote because I was present when the comment was made. It is a simple fact that many councillors of all parties don’t like more housing in their wards. Many don’t like social housing in particular and are not happy with the idea of a certain percentage on a development even when it is the adopted policy of the Council. I spend much of my time talking to councillors and local residents about potential developments. Very few housing developments are welcomed by existing residents of an area and this is often reflected in the opposition by the local member even to sites allocated in the UDP for housing. This is often the case when the site was allocated before the sitting member had been elected to the Council. This isn’t something that just happens in Wales as the 7500 houses rejected by councils in England after the UK Coalition’s decision to end regional housing targets illustrates. When John Prescott was a minister his department asked councils in England for an estimate of the number of houses required in the next 10 years. One Tory Council Leader instructed his Chief Executive to give the reply of zero. When he was told that this would not be accepted the Council sent in a figure of one. It will be interesting to see if in England the proposed financial incentives linked to new developments will encourage councils to take a different attitude to housing developments.
That’s all well and good Jeff but it is not a compelling reason why Wales should not legislate on housing if it’s elected government wishes to do so, sorry.
I have just come back from a camping trip in the wonderful Rocky Mountains of the Sovereign State of Colorado, so I have a lot to catch up on. I live in a small city where education is decided solely at the local level, where my daughter attends a school which is modern and has a class size of 16. That I believe is due to the benefits of federalism in a rural state with a population smaller than Wales. Yet I do not believe that “True Wales” advocates Federalism which means devolving sovereignty down to the people?”
What you need for first time buyers is an equivalent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ( I know what you are thinking!) which offered low interest loans for first time buyers. There’s nothing wrong with the principle just how it was abused!
“Henry you have chosen to categorize everyone who has indiicated they can speak some welsh as being ‘welsh speakers’ ………however little that may actually be……..not very methodological!!!! .if you define ‘welsh speakers’ as being people who regard welsh as being their ‘first’ language”
What I have done is cross reference those who have indicated ‘yes’ they speak welsh or ‘yes but not fluently’ against voting intentions in the forthcoming referendum on further powers. Nothing more, nothing less no matter how much you try to twist my words. The results show that welsh ability (of any level) is a massive confounding factor on voting intentions. The correlation is overwhelming. It’s absolutely undeniable, now matter how much you squirm.
Resultantly it is absolutely essential that the sample consists of somewhere in the region of 22% with ‘one or more skills in Welsh’ (as per the 2001 census). 44% with 18% fluent (as opposed to the Welsh language board estimate of 12% fluency) is absolutely not acceptable and absolutely not representative.
As for your link…. where’s the rest of it? That’s only the first page!! Where is the other 20 odd pages and where is the breakdown of Welsh ability of those polled like there is in mine? What is there to hide? or have the university of Aberystwyth decided to hide welsh speaking ability as they have discovered, like me, that it is a confounding factor and if hidden in the methodology is the perfect way to create invisible bias in the results
well henry i can see i have made the mistake of thinking that you were a serious contributor to this discussion…but when you start to accuse the much respected and impartial university of aberystwyth of ‘hiding’ things i can see meaningful debate with you is pointless.
The link i provided for the yougov july poll is the only link im aware of to the july poll – i not aware of any ‘missing pages’ as regards the poll……perhaps you should contact the university of aberystwyth and ask them if they are ‘hiding’ polling data in order to conceal a ‘bias’ in their polling results….im sure they would not take kindly to such a bizzare allegation
the only person who seems to ‘squirming’ as you crudely put it henry in this discussion is yourself as you try and justify your ludicrous claim that 44 percent of the july poll that showed a clear lead for the yes side were ‘welsh speakers’…..thus skewing the findings in the yes sides favour
To repeat is is not to the practice of any offical agency or government body to classify someone as being a ‘welsh speaker’ merely because they may have some knowledge of welsh…as you are absurdly trying to do ……the term ‘welsh speakers is reserved for people who use welsh as their first language or who are fluent in the language…and to repeat the figure in the poll that you refer to ( the poll conducted in october 2009) gives a figure of 18 percent!!! Which of course is in line with the figure ‘generally given for those categorized as ‘welsh peakers by government and official departments…’ .the welsh language board’s most recent figures are that 21 percent of the population of wales are ‘welsh speakers’….
i must say that opponents of primary lawmaking powers for the welsh assembly are really in trouble if they are resorting to allegations of bias and the deliberate concealment of polling evidence against reputable and much respected bodies like yougov and aberystwyth university….
If the polls were biased why would the Assembly vote overwhelmingly in favour of a referendum. Would any government call for a vote if they don’t think they are going to win it!
Well either you’re fibbing or the Welsh Language Board has revised their figure for those fluent in Welsh (or ‘Welsh speakers’ as you call them) up from 12% to 21% in a period of less then a year. Personally, I dont care which because both eventualities are laughable.
Actually, the latest poll was ITV/YouGov which may explain why the cross referencing against Welsh ability is not present like it was in the 2009 Aberystwyth uni/YouGov poll. Resultantly, there is nothing to discredit the latest poll with based on the information available. As for the 2009 poll – well, thanks to ALL the methodology being presented, nobody can defend that…. it stinks to high heaven of unaddressed confounding factors and bias.
henry i am not a lair – you may disagree with me but the figure i provided for those fluent in welsh were published iby the welsh language board in 2006 and can be found here.
http://www.byig-wlb.org.uk/English/publications/Publications/4068.pdf
Further you do yourself no credit by accusing people of lying and accusing reputable pollsters and much respected universities of bias!!!
Anon wrote: “If the polls were biased why would the Assembly vote overwhelmingly in favour of a referendum. Would any government call for a vote if they don’t think they are going to win it!”
Errr, yes. As the original article says based on international data “nly 51% of referenda posed by any government result in a positive answer.”
That’s one of the things that worries me