Dear Cheryl…
Bubble — By Daran Hill on July 12, 2010 7:00 am
Write me a letter, drop me a line, stating point of view...
THERE ARE some people in politics that always deserve to be listened to. To me – and this is an intensely personal confession and maybe one which will do the usual trick and rile the majority of the Plaid hierarchy – Dafydd Elis Thomas is such a figure. His interventions in debates on the constitutional future may always be part prophetic, part provocative. But they are never bland or purposeless.
In this spirit I was intrigued and a little inspired to watch his performance on the Politics Show yesterday in which he tackled head on the biggest conundrum in Welsh politics: the question of timing. As avid readers of this site and other online places may have noted, I have shifted my not-inconsiderable arse off the fence and denounced with gusto the suggestion that next year’s Assembly election be held on the same day as the AV referendum.
This mixture of fish and foul is not to my taste or to the taste of many others. Essentially Welsh voters will be asked to consume ballot papers that on one hand pose a question about the UK electoral system, and on the other elect an Assembly for our country that will not be impacted by that change. I don’t doubt the ability of the electorate to distinguish, but I do doubt the tendency of the UK media to report our election fairly against the backdrop of a referendum that will be more about divisions in the UK Government on the issue and what that will mean. And also the practicality of running very different campaigns at the same time.
The First Minister has responded on behalf of the Welsh Assembly Government to denounce the proposition that such a distasteful electoral cocktail is being shaken. Others have taken a different view.
But to my mind if we must have a referendum on the same day as the Assembly election then the damage has already been done. I tweeted more in exasperation than anger a week ago that if the Rubicon was indeed to be crossed, then why not go the whole damn hog? Why not hold the Assembly powers referendum on the first Thursday in May too? If we are to have a referendum on Assembly election day, then why not make it one that is at least related to that election? Let’s have a Super Thursday in May 2011!
The Presiding Officer of the National Assembly has come to the same conclusion, albeit for different reasons. His intervention is full of purpose. His reasoning deserves consideration, and it is in that spirit that the following letter he has written to the Secretary of State for Wales deserves to be read, digested and considered seriously. Which is exactly what the most provocative character in Welsh politics intends. (Him, not me, of course.)
You kindly consulted me formally about the timing and question of the referendum under Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006. I appreciated this formal recognition of the constitutional relationship we need to have and it is in that spirit that I write following the DPM’s statement to Parliament on July 5th.
Constitutionally, I have no objection to the proposed UK AV referendum and the NAW general election coinciding. I am strongly in favour of voter convenience, and rationalisation of expenditure on polling arrangements. I am also in favour of both the UK Parliament and NAW general elections coinciding in 2’015, especially as constituencies are to be decoupled in Wales as in Scotland.
There remains the issue of the timing of the Part 4 referendum. I see no constitutional case for postponing the NAW general election, neither in 2011 nor 2015. Fixed terms are fixed terms, and only a national emergency of foot and mouth proportions could justify postponement in my view. A monthly series of polling events is hardly conducive to voter participation, a key issue in my opinion, as you know.
We also have to have regard in exercising constitutional principles to the socio-economic realities, and treat the electorate with the respect they deserve as active citizens. These reasons drive me to argue strongly for not incurring additional expenditure on polling during the next four years. Government whether UK or Welsh should practice what they preach in these times. The DPM in his statement estimated a saving of £ 17m throughout the UK by holding a referendum on a devolved general election day.
Holding a NAW referendum also on the same day would be a further saving, and preferable to holding a campaign and a poll in late winter to early spring 2011 .
However if it is argued that the additional expense of a separate referendum polling day is regarded as value for money then it should surely be held on a date conducive to stimulating voter participation, the regular windows of polling dates in late spring and early autumn. The DPM’s statement also alluded to the length and form of a referendum question. You will know my views on this already and I was pleased to see the DPM state that a question should be simple and direct and inviting a direct answer. I would hope that this reflects UK Government policy and that we can expect a consistent approach in all referendum questions. This matter was also very clearly addressed in the House of Lords’ Constitution Committee report on referendum-related issues last April, a report which has much influenced my thinking in these matters.
As the decisions on all polling arrangements rest with you I hope you can take all these and other arguments into account, but in particular that you are able to consult the most important stakeholders in all this, the electorate itself. How and when would the people of Wales prefer to exercise their democratic rights has been little discussed. Assumptions have been made without consulltation or evidence of opinion. Many of those assumptions are questionable and some are downright patronising of the intelligence of the electorate, never a sensible approach in democratic issues.
As an organisation NAW and the Assembly Commission have spent much resources and time on voter engagement. Our studies of public attitudes towards devolution have been shared with you. Our information and communication on 2011 as a polling year is now available, with its key message of voter encouragement. I would very much regret if UK Government by its actions were to send out a totally contradictory message, which could have a seriously detrimental effect on participation in all the coming polls.
Cofion cywir,
Y Gwir Anrh yr Arglwydd Elis-Thomas AC, Uywydd
The Rt Hon the Lord Elis-Thomas AM, Presiding Officer
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16 Comments
It’s called commonsense.
it’s called a recipe for disaster and total confusion!!! There would be 4 seperate ballot papers – one for the referendum on primary lawmaking powers for the assembly, one for the british govts referendum on AV, one for the Welsh Assembly constituencies and one for the Assembly regional lists. this ‘super thursday’ as you call it daran would be preceeded by campaigning by two seperate Yes campaigns, two seperate No campaigns….and every political party in wales trying to get their own respective messages over to the welsh electorate……crazy and chaotic thursday more like!!
Ellis thomas might be worth listening too if he actually demonstrated any consistency or logic in his public pronouncements on this issue…but a glance at his recent track record reveals anything but!! Its barely a year since he rubbished the very idea of a referendum on primary lawmaking powers for the assembly…indicating he did not think such a referendum could be won. He then a couple of months ago told the welsh politics show it didnt matter to him if the referendum was won or not…….. a somewhat odd position to take for a leading member of plaid cymru….even by this maverick’s dubious track record. He then argued only a couple of weeks ago that the proposed referendum on lawmaking powers should be put back to autumn 2011…….and now it appears he has undergone yet another change of mind on the issue…….hence yesterday’s absurd pronouncement..
He is of course entitled to his opinion on the timing of the referendum…even if it is an opnion that seems to change every few weeks…but it is surely unacceptable that he should use his position as presiding officer to seek to continually undermine the timing of the referendum in this way. It is frankly an outrageous abuse of his position. Also lets be quite clear here ….ellis thomas is speaking for himself….he certainly doesnt speak for the welsh assembly…or anyone else on this matter. Im sure however his ‘submission’ will have no effect on cheryl gillan’s decision on the timing of the referendum…it is clear that the decision has already been taken and it will rightly be held in march 2011.
I’m starting to think that separate polls may well be seen as an indulgence by the Welsh electorate.
“I don’t doubt the ability of the electorate to distinguish, but I do doubt the tendency of the UK media to report our election fairly ..”
And that is problem. Should the Welsh powers referendum go ahead in March it could still get caught up in and drowned out by the AV referendum. On the other hand if it is held on the same day and all network BBC bulletins on the AV referendum had to add ‘The electorate in Wales will also be voting on further powers for the Welsh assembly …’ it might get more mainstream coverage. Well, in theory!
And looking ahead to a possible elected House of Lords will the electorate really want separate elections at council/Assembly/HoC/HoL/European level?
“the biggest conundrum in Welsh politics: the question of timing”
Really? Not the parlous state of our economy or fact that 1 in 3 Welsh children live in poverty? Not how to protect public services in a period of financial difficulty? Not the fact that there is a £527 funding gap in education? Not the fact that the Health Minister has 4 members of the Labour party on overpaid nonjobs in North Wales, according to private eye?
Perhaps when politicians start talking about really problems and not some nonsense about what election is held when, then we’ll start to see a political elite that can manage to get their heads around holding tow or three votes on the same day, like evry other counrty in Europe.
yeah, the problem is the media. We all know what will happen : the BBC, with Huw Edwards in the seat (natch) will have 24/7 coverage and of the “historic AV Referendum”. There might be some mention, possibly before brefast or at 10pm “that there were also elections in Wales today…” but they will be inconsequential blink-and-you-miss it things. And don’t say that “media doesn’t matter” – we all know from the recent general that the media coverage is ABSOLUTELY crucial. If the electorate doesn’t hear about it on the news, then they don’t hear about it AT ALL.
No. Hold the Powers referendum and Assembly Elections on the same day if you must. But NOT on the same day as the AV referendum. And make sure it has equal coverage in media – that’s what Dafydd should be using his influence for, if anything.
On May 5th next year there will be elections in all the English Mets including large councils such as Birmingham and Manchester, elections in a further 192 district councils and all the unitaries and let’s not forget the community or parish councils in the districts. This is the main reason why the UK Coalition government has decided to hold the AV referendum on the same day. It has nothing to do with ‘insulting’ the Welsh, Scots and Northern Irish or ignoring ‘da respect agenda’. Those who use this line of argument have really lost the plot in my opinion. Many English voters will also have to fill in three ballot papers. Are those who argue for three separate votes in Wales really saying that the average Welsh voter is not as intelligent as their English counterpart? It could be argued that there is a really strange argument for nationalists who believe that we live in a ‘unique country’ with ‘remarkable leaders’ to make.
I’m finding all this talk of somehow the AV referendum will detract from the philosophical debate that will take place between the parties standing in the Assembly election also amusing. Plaid had better get used to the fact as Richard Wynn Jones pointed out in a recent conference that they are going get squeezed next year as Labour reverts to the successful tactics of the 1980s. Basically the message will be a simple one of treating every vote on May 5th as a chance for the people of Wales to give their verdict on the cuts agenda being pushed by the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. Policy issues only complicate this message. In this simple Manichean view of politics there is no room for anyone in the middle of the argument such as Plaid. If you think that the cuts agenda is the right approach and opinion polls suggest that many do then you will vote Tory and possibly Liberal Democrat. If you don’t then there is only one party capable of actually doing anything about the cuts agenda and that is the Labour party. No one in the Tories or Liberal Democrats is going to worry about losing the odd seat to the nationalists in Scotland or Wales. Losing large numbers of council seats in England and seats such as Cardiff North and possibly Monmouth in Wales to Labour and failing to gain the Vale and Swansea West now that might make the UK Coalition partners think twice. On the May 5th 2011 the media will not just be looking at the result of the AV referendum they will also be looking at the number of Tory and Liberal Democrat losses and who controls cities such as Birmingham and Sheffield and other northern Mets where the Liberal Democrats have done well during the period of Labour Government. It really is about time more people got out of the Cardiff Bay bubble and stopped drinking the cheap beer in the Eli Jenkins! The whole world as Gethin rightly points out doesn’t revolve around the glass house down the Bay.
The All Wales Convention’s research suggested that the higher the turn out, the more likely there is to be a Yes vote on further powers. If a Welsh referendum is held on the same day as a UK referendum (with its much higher levels of media coverage) there is more likely to be a higher turnout and therefore more likely to be a vote in favour of extending the powers of the Assembly. From that perspective, DET’s argument makes sense.
At a time when public spending cuts are leading to job losses, it is also going to seem a tremendous waste of money having different votes on different days. That will seem hypocritical and harm the political system more than any blurring of the issues in a combined vote.
I have some sympathy with the argument over 2011.
However with this statement:
‘I am also in favour of both the UK Parliament and NAW general elections coinciding in 2015, especially as constituencies are to be decoupled in Wales as in Scotland.’
DET is betraying his complete lack of appreciation of politics on the ground.
Is he serious? For the poor buggers who do elections from day to day, the practicalities are nightmarish. Combining a general election with a different type of vote is one thing. But assembly elections are not comparable to referenda or local elections, no matter how large. They are general elections – with all the shebang that goes with them; freepost electoral addresses, PPBs etc.
Just start thinking of the practicalities of this – 2 sets of constituency candidates going around, the Post Office will have a fit having to deliver up to 6 freeposts from each party within a month; parties will take advantage of the jiggery-pokery as to what counts as constituency assembly expenses, constituency Westminster expenses, assembly regional expenses, national expenses; agents and local party treasurers – mostly volunteers – will sob gently in corners.
But oh no, that’s not enough, just to make it tricky we’re going to do it in 2 sets of constituencies, with different boundaries. Madness. Quite apart from it being profoundly unfair and a travesty for our young democracy, of course.
Have any commenters actually tried organising a constituency campaign in a marginal seat? Tough innit. Now try doing it in 2 slightly different seats at the same time, with different candidates, and different expenses rules.
If the electoral commission permit this, they will have completely failed in their most basic function.
It’s a minor point but given the queues outside (some, very few) polling stations in the recent election, what of the odds of us seeing something similar when people have four papers with which to ffaff about.
Traditionally the answer in my local authority (RhCT) to the space taken up by two ballot papers in the ballot box is to issue presiding officers with a large stick to poke them down. Do we think local authorities will have the foresight to get more boxes in? Yeah, right.
well given this is intended as a discussion about the timing of the referendum on primary law making powers for the Welsh Assembly the world really does revolve around Cardiff Bay ….in this instance at least. As it is on the question of that democratic Welsh institution gaining lawmaking powers….a Welsh institution the former devolutionist Jeff Jones refers to disparigingly as a ‘glass house’…upon which the people of wales will be voting.
What is interesting about the futile arguments in favour of all these ballots taking place at the same time ….futile as Cheryl Gillan has already decided on a date in march 2011…….is that none of the proponents of this madness appears able to explain the practicalities of a campaign in which there will simultaneously be two separate Yes campaigns, two separate No campaigns and a full blow Welsh general election campaign. I cannot speak for those who will be campaigning against this proposal but as a supporter of the Assembly gaining primary lawmaking powers it would certainly make a united and effective Yes campaign an impossibility….indeed the Welsh Conservatives and the Welsh LibDems are on record as saying they would not be involved in a Yes campaign if the referendum on primary law making powers is held on the same day as the Welsh Assembly elections.
There is another objection, but it’s about the absence of other elections on May 5th next year.
While England’s district council’s are up for election, only a third of metropolitan authorities and a third of many unitary authorities are. And there are no elections in London at all. So in large and populous parts of the country, voters will be expected to come out only for a vote on reforming the electoral system. I predict significantly differential turnout that could actually skew the result.
I always love it when individuals have no sense of humour. I’m describing the building not the political institution. I know the guy was an awarding winning architect but every time I look at the Assembly building it reminds me of the sort of leisure facility designed by the ‘unknown local authority architect’ in the 1980s. At least it’s not as bad as the Celtic Manor Resort which with its oversized Welsh Dragon looks like the sort of building Stalin would have given to the Poles in about 1951 as a fraternal gift from the comrades in the good old USSR.
I liked that phrase ‘former devolutionist’. I suppose when Wales gets independence I can now expect the full works including the show trial and the accusations of consorting with assorted Titoists, Trotskyists and western imperialists. Given that Welsh Nationalists want a separate legal system I wonder which little boy or girl is now dreaming of being the Welsh Vishinsky!
Jeff Jones agrees with Richard Wynn Jones that Plaid will get squeezed in the next Assembly elections as votters react to the ConDem coalition’s measures and realise “there is only one party capable of actually doing anything about the cuts agenda and that is the Labour party”. I suppose that’s one way of looking at it, and such a pitch might appeal to Old Labour loyalists.
However, Plaid, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will ensure that electors remember who left us in this economic mess. Further, we can expect these parties, but especially Plaid, to remind us of MPs’ expenses, and those Labour MPs who recently tried to claim they were immune from prosecution! Couple them with the wide boys in the City and ‘London’ begins to look both a soft target and something from which we should seek to distance ourselves.
My view is that we can confidently predict both Tories and Lib Dems losing out next May, but to suggest that a chastened Welsh electorate will suffer collective amnesia – ignoring the reminders – and run back to Labour is a bit insulting to the intelligence of Welsh voters. But then, how else did Labour achieve its now lost hegemony in Wales?
Not sure where your reference to stalin’s former state prosecutor fits in with this discussion on the timing of the referendum on primary lawmaking powers Jeff…….think maybe you’re ‘losing the plot now’……..but do concur absolutely with your description of the Celtic Manor!
I know nothing of your ‘consorting’ with Titoists, Trotskyists and western imperialists’. Please tell us more?
As Leigh Richards points out, the media narrative in all this will be absolutely crucial. If Dafydd El’s madcap scheme goes ahead, you can guarantee that the narrative of “Super Thursday” will not be about the Welsh referendum, not about the Assembly elections, and not even the AV referendum as such, but about the viability of the Westminster ConDem coalition in general. The media will focus obsessively on any possible splits and conflics within the coalition with the result that this potential for fragmentation will then be the guiding theme for all three votes. AV is more than likely to be lost in such a scenario, and one NO is likely to lead to a second NO with the Welsh referendum as well.
If Nick Clegg wants to have his AV referendum on May 5- well let him have it. The Assembly are right to demand that the Welsh Assembly Elections should be held a month later. But they should also press for the Welsh Referendum to be held on that day as well. An important principle is at stake here i.e the right for Wales to have it’s own political space and not to be subsumed completely by the demands of the British electoral cycle. In that sense, Dafydd El’s secondary argument for the 2015 Assembly elections to coincide with the Westminster elections would be a form of political hara kiri, not only for the party whom he is supposed to represent as an AM but more importantly, for the fledgling sense of Welsh political nationhood.
“Given that Welsh Nationalists want a separate legal system I wonder which little boy or girl is now dreaming of being the Welsh Vishinsky!”
Oh, pick me, pick me! Then again i’d rather be Che, spreading the revolution to Cornwall or Breizh.