Winners and losers at the Welsh Office

Ty Gwydir, the home of the Wales Office/Welsh Office (delete as appropriate)

As I reflected on Wednesday, the appointment of Cheryl Gillan as Secretary of State for Wales comes with its own challenges in terms of perception. No matter how effective she is, opponents will look on her appointment as a sign of a colonial mentality in appointing an English MP to be Welsh Secretary. This may be unfair, but that’s just the way it is. The situation was not helped last night when the Secretary of State was unavailable for interview on Dragon’s Eye (though she did do Sharp End) and so another former post holder from an English constituency was wheeled out, David Hunt. Was there really no Welsh Conservative MP available for interview? Quite frankly, whatever the merits of Lord Hunt, it struck me as a tactical error to compound the perception problem around appointing one English-based Parliamentarian to represent Wales by interviewing another. Who’s on next week – John Redwood?

Yesterday David Cameron also appointed David Jones MP, the Member for Clwyd West, as junior Minister in the Welsh Office. The efficient Mr Jones promised to be proactive in the role. Quite who is the most worried by that prospect is difficult to tell. He is an effective and intelligent politician who certainly made his presence felt as Mrs Gillan’s deputy during the opposition years, not least on the Welsh Affairs Select Committee. He will not have the level of virtual anonymity associated with some of his Labour predecessors.

Jones is also, as far as I can tell, the only Welsh MP yet appointed to any ministry, which may also be a long-term problem.

All of which makes the role of Nick Bourne, the leader of the Welsh Conservative group in the Assembly, all the more interesting. Never Welsh Party leader, he has previously been viewed as the most senior Conservative in Wales, and rightly so. Whether the pecking order has changed remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Nick Bourne is a man of considerable political foresight and managerial skills. His group is happy and settled with his leadership and, quite frankly, he is the man best suited to lead them through the coming difficult year and into the Assembly election. He does so from a position of strength, but also one of influence, both with the new Secretary of State and the new Prime Minister. Nick Bourne can be trusted to help deliver on the promised referendum for fuller law making powers for the Assembly.

Showing considerably less influence on a Wales level, however, are the Liberal Democrats. The new deal was always going to be difficult to sell in Wales and the ground war of political organisation is going to be tough. But the appointment of David Jones to the Welsh Office has made their jobs suddenly one hell of a lot harder. It was widely expected that Cheryl Gillan’s deputy would be a Liberal Democrat. More than that, it felt assured. There was therefore a mixture of “shock and awe” in political circles yesterday when their three MPs were frozen out of the job and the Welsh Office, despite seemingly having received at least one government role in every other single department of state.

“You’re screwed for at least a year,” I reflected to one of them last night. Their own assessment was less optimistic.