Comments on: What next for the Liberal Democrats? http://waleshome.org/2010/05/what-next-for-the-liberal-democrats/ Independent analysis from and about Wales Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:00:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Marcus Warner http://waleshome.org/2010/05/what-next-for-the-liberal-democrats/comment-page-1/#comment-12147 Marcus Warner Fri, 28 May 2010 07:22:30 +0000 http://waleshome.org/?p=10971#comment-12147 "Anyone who does not believe that the net effect of that will not be the limiting of Kirsty Williams’ ability to negotiate after the Assembly election next year is probably kidding themselves. The events of May 2010 have brought the Lib Dems into government in one part of the UK while simultaneously making it far more difficult for them to enter government in another." I think that is the crux of the issue really, and the real issue for the Lib Dems. Although it is not impossible, it is highly unlikely the Lib Dems can be in in Government with the Tories in Westminster and then Labour in the Senedd? I am happy to be corrected if I am presuming that to be the case. I always take the default position that being in Government is a plus for any party, particularly ones unlikely in the short term to be win outright alone. Despite the scrapes and bumps, I believe it has been a net benefit for Plaid in One Wales. I don't blindly accept that it will be disaster for the Lib Dems per se but... The difficulty with the Lib Dems is that Westminster has a far wider, and the potential for more ideological policy cannon. While a good deal of Liberal Democract MPs are centre right, I don't sense their voter base, particularly the swing voter base is. Did any Lib Dem voters expect a cap on immigration? A pretty hard line on Europe? Cuts that were economic madness a month ago according to Vince Cable? Liam Fox looking after the war in Afghanistan? I already wrote a piece for Liberal Conspiracy on the Plaid/Labour vs. Lib/Tory shake down, it is really interesting (the issue, not necessarily my piece!). I caution against being to stuck in the mud on what might happen, mainly because we have not been here before. This is the first time under devolution we have had different colour government in Westminster and the Senedd, the coalition aspect to it makes it even more intriguing. I do however agree with Daran that I cannot foresee that this coalition will aid the Welsh Lib Dems to make gains in 2011. It is up to Plaid to make sure Labour does not hoover up all those disgruntled lib dem voters. “Anyone who does not believe that the net effect of that will not be the limiting of Kirsty Williams’ ability to negotiate after the Assembly election next year is probably kidding themselves. The events of May 2010 have brought the Lib Dems into government in one part of the UK while simultaneously making it far more difficult for them to enter government in another.”

I think that is the crux of the issue really, and the real issue for the Lib Dems.

Although it is not impossible, it is highly unlikely the Lib Dems can be in in Government with the Tories in Westminster and then Labour in the Senedd? I am happy to be corrected if I am presuming that to be the case.

I always take the default position that being in Government is a plus for any party, particularly ones unlikely in the short term to be win outright alone. Despite the scrapes and bumps, I believe it has been a net benefit for Plaid in One Wales. I don’t blindly accept that it will be disaster for the Lib Dems per se but…

The difficulty with the Lib Dems is that Westminster has a far wider, and the potential for more ideological policy cannon. While a good deal of Liberal Democract MPs are centre right, I don’t sense their voter base, particularly the swing voter base is. Did any Lib Dem voters expect a cap on immigration? A pretty hard line on Europe? Cuts that were economic madness a month ago according to Vince Cable? Liam Fox looking after the war in Afghanistan?

I already wrote a piece for Liberal Conspiracy on the Plaid/Labour vs. Lib/Tory shake down, it is really interesting (the issue, not necessarily my piece!). I caution against being to stuck in the mud on what might happen, mainly because we have not been here before. This is the first time under devolution we have had different colour government in Westminster and the Senedd, the coalition aspect to it makes it even more intriguing.

I do however agree with Daran that I cannot foresee that this coalition will aid the Welsh Lib Dems to make gains in 2011. It is up to Plaid to make sure Labour does not hoover up all those disgruntled lib dem voters.

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