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The coming man has arrived, but what has he brought with him?

ON WEDNESDAY, the Institute of Welsh Politics and the Wales Governance Centre released their most recent election report. For the Liberal Democrats it made some very interesting and positive reading. For example, it pointed to the fact that despite getting a very mixed result in Wales in the General Election, the party actually polled its second ever highest percentage share of the Welsh vote since 1931.

Other orange shoots were also apparent. There was data from YouGov which showed that, with regard to tactical voting, that of those polled who really preferred a party other than the one they voted for, 26.4% would actually have liked to have voted Lib Dem compared to 17.1% for Labour, 21.1% who really wanted to vote Conservative, and 20.4% who really wished to choose Plaid. Further, the Lib Dems also polled the best of the four parties in terms of average approval rating for all the main political parties.

Most striking of all, though, was the result of the question posed with regard to the likelihood those polled would ever consider voting a particular way in the future. This question showed over half of those polled would consider doing so for the Liberal Democrats – the only party to break through the 50% potential mark. Further, less than 17.3% of those polled categorically stated they would never vote for that party compared to 28.7% saying they would never vote Labour, 30.7% declaring they would under no circumstances choose Plaid, and a staggering 49.3% pledging never, ever to vote Conservative.

Set against this sort of data it seems that the Liberal Democrats have more potential for electoral advance than any other party. This was a point I also made some months ago on this site, writing that:

“Don’t assume the Lib Dems are irrelevant in Wales. And don’t judge Kirsty Williams on this year’s Euro Election result. Give her two years and two elections to show what she and her party can do. She may just surprise you with a result that’s a lot more credible than the very edge of what’s possible.”

Kirsty Williams may find it a lot more difficult to pull away from the Conservatives these days

With so many variables in modern politics, this is certainly still true. But there is a strong part of me that now believes such an outcome is far less likely than it would have been a month ago. Because despite achieving the seemingly impossible and entering a government of the United Kingdom, the price of such an advance may well be stalling if not reverse for the Liberal Democrats in Wales.

The key case in point is of course the funding of public services in Wales. This week the scale of the first phase of the budget reductions was felt when George Osborne indicated that the Welsh budget will be cut by £162.5m as a part of £6.2bn spending reductions across the UK. Responding to this news in Plenary on Tuesday, Finance Minister Jane Hutt assured members that budget reductions would have to be implemented, but it was quite clear that the Labour and Plaid sides were doing so with a heavy heart. They did not seek to minimise the impact of the reductions in public spending. The Welsh Liberal Democrat line, however, was the clear opposite of this position and completely in tune with UK party. Kirsty Williams was clear that:

“The Welsh government has known for a long time that there was going to be a dip in its budget.

“It is now up to the Welsh government to demonstrate that it can act responsibly to ensure that frontline services are protected – as the UK government has done today.”

Essentially a situation has developed where there two versions of truth being given here. On the one side are the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, who are embracing the Westminster position that cuts need to be made and but that they will not need to be deep. On the other side, Plaid and Labour stress the cuts will hurt. As I reflected earlier this week in relation to how they will slice in Wales:

Expect the incisions to pierce the flesh where there is the least chance of damage to major internal organs, but where there is the most chance of blood.

The bloodstains will be apparent as both sides exchange their versions of reality. It is happening in the Assembly on a daily basis now. But as the Conservatives, and especially the Liberal Democrats, do so, they need to be aware of a particular backdrop which was also made more apparent this week. Another key outcome from the data shared by the academics on Wednesday was the way in which it tested whether credit or blame was due to be given either to the Welsh Assembly Government or to the UK Government for policy delivery or perceived policy failure. The pollsters tested perceptions around the NHS, education services, standards of living and also law and order and, in all categories, those polled believed that credit for success should lie with the Welsh Assembly Government and that disappointments were the fault of the UK Government. All of which shows that the public is instinctively more likely to support WAG’s version of reality than the UK Government’s. Of course this data was gathered before the UK Government changed, but the issue of natural trust is bigger than party politics and this direction of interpretation does not offer an easy path for the Lib Dems in explaining the current row over funding. Natural empathy does not seem to be there.

Another major problem facing the Lib Dems in Wales is the charge already being made, especially by Plaid, that they have failed to exact a good deal for Wales in the coalition agreement. This will be a particularly pointed line of attack which will be used time and time again in coming months and years. And nowhere will it be as apparent as in the Welsh Office. As I have previously reflected, they have probably even a bigger problem than the Conservatives in trying to make the Welsh Office work for them:

Showing considerably less influence on a Wales level, however, are the Liberal Democrats. The new deal was always going to be difficult to sell in Wales and the ground war of political organisation is going to be tough. But the appointment of David Jones to the Welsh Office has made their jobs suddenly one hell of a lot harder. It was widely expected that Cheryl Gillan’s deputy would be a Liberal Democrat. More than that, it felt assured. There was therefore a mixture of “shock and awe” in political circles yesterday when their three MPs were frozen out of the job and the Welsh Office, despite seemingly having received at least one government role in every other single department of state.

This lack of clear voice will put increased pressure on the Liberal Democrat group in the Assembly. They have not seemed the happiest bunch of late, especially with Labour and Plaid members directing sustained fire against them rather than the Conservatives. The more feral on the government benches are certainly snarling and more than a little rabid.

Let’s conclude with a little bit of recent history. Back in 2007 before the emergence of One Wales we almost saw the creation of a “Rainbow Coalition” between the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats. One of the key factors that made this possibility so tantalisingly real was that the three had worked together closely over the previous two years in harrying the minority Labour government. It is the old adage “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” put into practice. But who are the enemies and who are the friends now? The dividing line between either Labour or Plaid with the Liberal Democrats is thicker than it has ever been following the events of recent weeks. There are now two teams at work in Cardiff Bay: red-green and orange-blue.

Anyone who does not believe that the net effect of that will not be the limiting of Kirsty Williams’ ability to negotiate after the Assembly election next year is probably kidding themselves. The events of May 2010 have brought the Lib Dems into government in one part of the UK while simultaneously making it far more difficult for them to enter government in another.