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Well, you got one and you did better in Wales than at any time in the last twenty years

BACK in 1999, then Prime Minister Tony Blair reflected, with the prophetic conviction that was a hallmark of his premiership: “We are leaving the Conservative century. The next one will be the progressive century.” Those on the centre right may look at the events of the last three weeks and agree that Blair was right but that, once more, it is the Conservatives who have positioned themselves at the vanguard of this progressivism.

The ability to reinvent is a hallmark of the Tory party (and that name is used to emphasise the roots and history of the “old party” that Nick Clegg was once so keen to disparage). Much has been written about this survivalism and the master stroke achieved by Cameron in creating a clear alternative agenda which the Lib Dems could buy into. Less has been said about where this all leaves the Welsh Conservatives, although the narrative is a compelling one. And for the first time in nearly two decades it is an impressive one too, albeit with limitations.

The Conservatives can draw particular comfort that they were the party to gain the most in Wales in May 2010. They entered the election with three seats and finished with eight and, equally importantly, they got back to around 25% of the vote in Wales, the share the used to take before the long nightmare of 1997 began. This was a clear uplift and brought with it gains like Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, the Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy, and Cardiff North (just). On the back of this result, the Welsh Conservatives are clearly the opposition in the National Assembly and, by sheer number of Members of Parliament, in May 2010 recaptured the role of the second party of Welsh politics.

All of which is a clear step forward, especially when compared to the dysfunctional Scottish Conservative Party which once more returned just one MP. Think on that for a moment: in four General Elections the Scottish Conservatives have only won one seat twice. That’s it. How pathetic. And they know it. Last weekend the former Scottish Secretary Lord Forsyth called for a structural rethink of the Scottish Conservatives after saying the party had become ‘marginal’. He argued they needed a Scottish leader elected by grassroots members as well as better links between the party at large with Conservative MSPs. His choice of language was brutal:

“There is no-one in charge, we need to have someone who is in charge of the Conservative party in Scotland. Preferably elected by the membership.

“The membership and the constituencies have been allowed to atrophy. The branches have disappeared, there’s no real link between the voluntary side of the party and the MSPs and I think probably and I’m as guilty of that and everybody knows that I’ve been very sceptical about devolution.

“But I think probably we have to accept the reality of the Scottish Parliament and perhaps use that more effectively as a platform to put across our ideas.”

All of which has a familiar ring to it. This is the approach which the Welsh Conservatives have taken for the past decade. They have, in the main, jettisoned their opposition to devolution and embedded themselves into the institution with an authentic commitment that has been licensed and led from the top. This has brought electoral rejuvenation and political success, with the Conservative brand emerging with less toxicity from the first decade of devolution than had seemed possible when the Assembly arrived. Not every question has been settled here – the “Welsh leader” one remaining noticeably unresolved – but on most fronts there has been a maturity and realpolitik which has benefited the Conservatives considerably.

Yet do not for a moment imagine that this political prosperity is automatically going to continue. The Conservatives in Wales face a number of considerable challenges in the next 12 months which may define their fate for years to come.

A long road that needs regular travel

The first is how the Members of Parliament and Assembly Members work together. It has been a poorly-kept secret that between 2005 and 2010 very different attitudes to devolution existed at both ends of the M4. Trying to reconcile these polarisations has been challenging and will remain so. But for those in the Welsh Conservatives who wish to exercise more powers in Cardiff Bay, the time is relatively propitious now. Not only is the Assembly group united in this but – and this is significant – the Westminster group is no longer united in devo-scepticism. The 2010 General Election has changed that dynamic. Indeed, if you count the Welsh Conservative and Welsh Liberal Democrat MPs together, there is a clear majority in favour of devolving more powers amongst UK government backbenchers.

Further, the new Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillan, has already said she will not campaign on either side come the referendum. Where does this leave her new deputy, David Jones? One of the least amenable to devolution in the Welsh Conservatives, he is an effective politician and a clever sceptic. If he too remains neutral in the coming battle then that will be a clear boost to the yes side.

Cheryl Gillan in sharp focus

An extension of this tension is also the matter of hierarchy within the Welsh Conservatives. Nick Bourne is not the leader of the Welsh party. He is the leader of the Welsh Conservative group in the National Assembly for Wales. One party source once told me that such a position was little different to the leader of a Conservative group on a county council. Such a view lacks both charity and reality. Nick Bourne is the most prominent Conservative in Wales. A problem may arise, however, in that he is not now the most powerful one. Ministers decide, and therefore both Cheryl Gillan and David Jones MP have the upper hand should the choose to play it. The fact that Nick Bourne and his Assembly group stand so clearly on one side when it comes to the referendum may, over time, make this entire dynamic very unpredictable.

Because – and this is the third big variable – the referendum is the next big political challenge in Wales. The Conservatives have always been on the wrong side of the argument when it comes to this question (as detailed in David Melding’s excellent book on the subject). But for the first time ever their Welsh leadership has found itself, at least in part, in tune with a progressive consensus. It is my considered belief that this support is absolutely crucial if the referendum is to be won.

Yet in opening up the Conservative party to a split during this period – there will be people who campaign on both sides, and actively so – the party is playing with fire. Holding a party together with respect during a referendum is not easy. But, in all honesty, there was little else that could be done and offered. All of which increases the pressure on Cheryl Gillan to act and progress the referendum in a consensual and careful way. She has to please not just her own divided party but also people in other parties too. And Carwyn Jones has already shown he is prepared to play hard ball on the issue.

In Cheryl Gillan the party faces its fourth big challenge. It may be lazy politics, but there is no getting away from the fact that she is an MP for an English constituency. As I have previously argued:

“Appointing non-Welsh MPs to positions of direct administrative authority over Wales alone was never an issue of constitutional impropriety – but it always has been, and will be, an issue of political impropriety.”

This will be a challenge that continues to dog Mrs Gillan, no matter how effective her time at Gwydir House. Her neutrality on the matter of the referendum may reinforce that too. She needs to demonstrate a deft hand over the next six months because much depends on her. As Labour has already sensed, putting her, and not Nick Bourne, under pressure and under the spotlight is the cleverest tactic they can play at the moment.

Hold still, this won't hurt too much...

Finally, and possibly most dangerously of all for the Conservatives, is the matter of public spending. The budget cuts announced on Monday slice deep in Wales. Or at least they will appear to do so. Cheryl Gillan, Nick Bourne and Kirsty Williams (described last week by Alun Davies AM as the new Deputy Leader of the Welsh Conservatives) have all argued that it is up to the Welsh Assembly Government how it interprets and executes those cuts.

And that is the biggest danger of all for the UK Government because, quite simply, there are one hell of a lot more people in Wales who will be prepared to buy Labour and Plaid’s take on the current situation than will take the Conservative/Liberal Democrat line. Just look at the way the issue has already been reported. And furthermore, going back to the matter of the power to make decisions on where the cuts will fall, such decisions will be in the hands of Welsh Assembly Government Ministers too. And not for a moment do I believe that political calculation will not inform their decisions as to where to cut. Expect the incisions to pierce the flesh where there is the least chance of damage to major internal organs, but where there is the most chance of blood.

How these major challenges are navigated will be the test of the Conservatives in Wales as they face the stormy waters of the next year. And the cleverness of the approach will dictate whether or not the Conservatives can come even close to entering government in Wales in May 2011 in the way that they almost did in 2007.