The Hoarse Whisperers

You ain't gonna believe this...

IT ALWAYS happens in the last few days of battle, when you start to hear the whisperers getting closer, their voices hoarse from yelling into megaphones or harassing poor voters. Yet their whispers are always intriguing. They tell of what their party is doing, how troops are being moved and tactics are being changed. But they also tell of what they can see of other parties and their tactics.

This seems to be such a volatile election that almost anything can happen. But rarely have the whisperers not voiced the possibility of an upset, even if it is just a rumour, a hunch or suspicion. In the last 24 hours it’s always worth listening to the Cassandras and the Nostradamuses as they read the entrails of a slaughtered cockerel.

You might not believe them, but listen nevertheless. Because every election has its surprises. Here are some of the biggest Welsh “shocks” in recent years – a lucky or unlucky seven, depending on your point of view – and you can guarantee that every one was predicted, sotto voce maybe, but predicted nevertheless.

Montgomeryshire: The truest Liberal stronghold in Britain briefly returned a Conservative MP between 1979 and 1983. The explanation was that the local Liberals were too busy planning a 1980 centenary party for their unbroken run of parliamentary representation…

Ynys Mon: Don’t get me started on this one, ok? The only rule that seems to apply is that incumbents don’t tend to lose, but when they stand down the seat switches. Such was the legacy of Cledwyn Hughes in 1979, Keith Best in 1987, and Ieuan Wyn Jones in 2001. On that basis Albert Owen should be fine, shouldn’t he? Your guess is as good as mine. Predict the unpredictable here.

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire: Sometimes it’s not the result but the margin that’s the jaw dropper. The tightest ever three-way finish in an Assembly election saw just 200 votes separate Conservative winner Angela Burns from Labour’s Chris Gwyther and Plaid’s John Dixon. And everyone was stunned when this result alone ejected Assembly favourite Glyn Davies.

Rhondda: This seat was once the Assembly’s swing city. Plaid’s win here in 1999 had been widely whispered but scarcely believed. So unbelieved, in fact, that if memory serves me correctly nobody sent a camera crew there. Doh. The media made up for it in 2003, though, and everyone saw Leighton Andrews take the seat back for Labour – and make it Labour’s safest Assembly seat to boot. A triumph of that size was almost beyond prediction…

Islwyn: “Who the hell is Brian Hancock?” was the cry when Plaid took another Labour heartland back in 1999. Fortress Islwyn was no longer the land of the Kinnock. And nobody but nobody was whispering about it beforehand, apart from the most zealous of Plaid activists in the eastern valleys. The look of alarm on some Plaid faces when they sensed that big hitter Phil Williams was going to be denied his South East Wales list place in the Assembly was striking. Yet somehow both Phil and Brian made it to the Assembly. But, like the Rhondda, Plaid lost in 2003 and it almost seems mythical now that they ever held it. It did happen, didn’t it?…

Cardiff Central: While everyone else was getting excited about Plaid gains in 1999, to me one of the most striking breakthroughs was the Liberal Democrats winning Cardiff Central. Only two years earlier Labour had established an 8,000 majority over Jenny Randerson, yet here she was entering the Assembly with a 3,000 majority. I remember thinking this spelt big trouble for Labour and within five years the Lib Dems had not just made it their safest Welsh seat but had taken every single council ward in the constituency. Who the hell would have whispered that in the mid 1990s?

Ceredigion: Two big surprises here in recent history have made this a seat to watch with surprise. Back in 1992 a Plaid/Green alliance saw Plaid move from fourth to first place – something which rarely ever occurs in any part of the UK and was one of the best advances in Plaid history. In contrast, when the Liberal Democrats shocked the Plaid machine in 2005 and Mark Williams won the seat by 219 votes, it induced a trauma and sense of introversion they had not experienced before. Well, not since losing Ynys Mon four years previously, anyway.

So there we have it: my seven surprises. Looking at them like this it seems to me that Plaid is the most elastic party. It has the ability to surprise with large swing gains and losses. Ty Gwynfor will be hoping for a bit more of the former come Thursday night.

And in the meantime I’ll keep listening to the whisperers. The ones explaining to me why Gordon Brown went to Wrexham today; the ones emphasising to me what a good Conservative MP Angela Jones-Evans would be for Cardiff West; the ones reminding me not to forget Labour can win back Blaenau Gwent; and the ones who reckon a 10% swing for Plaid in Llanelli is more than a theoretical possibility…

Thursday night will once more prove who it was right to strain to listen to. But in the meantime please feel free to share. Any more whisperings out there from dark places?