Speculation, idle and otherwise

Westminster '10 — By Daran Hill on May 5, 2010 8:35 am

CARDS on the table time, then. There’s only so long an old knave like me can keep his cards to his chest. Time to stop being a joker and play the king.

I know vast swathes of electors have yet to make up their minds. I know there’s still all to play for. I know that recent polls have shown good news for both Labour and the Conservatives. I know that Peter Hain’s copter ride could change everything. I know that “Only the Lib Dems can win here.”

But it’s time to take a couple of punts. A mix of speculation, nous and wild provocation they may be, but at least I’m having a go. You can score me out of ten on Friday morning – if all of the results are in by then.

1. David TC Davies in Monmouth will get the biggest majority in Wales.

2. Jenny Willott will win the highest percentage of the vote of any candidate in Wales.

3. The biggest swing away from the Liberal Democrats will be in Montgomeryshire.

4. The biggest swing to the Liberal Democrats will be in Wrexham.

5. Plaid will end up with more seats at the end of the election than they did at the start.

6. The Conservatives will be the second party in Wales in terms of MPs, and three of them will be former Assembly Members.

7. There won’t be a single Labour majority in Wales over 10,000 votes.

8. Welsh turnout will be at least 5% up on 2005 and Brecon and Radnorshire will again be the seat with the highest turnout.

9. I will make one enormous error during the BBC’s live coverage tomorrow night, and will have tears in my eyes on at least two occasions.

10. Wales will be perceived as politically more significant to the election across the UK than it has ever been before.

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6 Comments

  1. Michael Jones says:
    May 5, 2010 at 6:12 pm

    Daran writes:

    “6. The Conservatives will be the second party in Wales in terms of MPs, and three of them will be former Assembly Members.”

    I take it you’re referring to David Davies, Alun Cairns, and David Jones.

    What about Glyn Davies? ;)

  2. Daran Hill says:
    May 5, 2010 at 6:16 pm

    Michael, you know me too well to believe that my ambiguity is anything other than intentional ;)

  3. Gareth says:
    May 5, 2010 at 8:13 pm

    4. Or Merthyr…just a thought.

  4. marc jones says:
    May 5, 2010 at 8:42 pm

    The Lib Dems will do v well in Wxm but, boy, did they spend a lot to achieve it!

  5. Daran Hill says:
    May 5, 2010 at 9:01 pm

    Aye, or Merthyr,,,,

  6. Simon Dyda says:
    May 6, 2010 at 1:50 pm

    In the UK I’m predicting a Tory-UUP majority in Westminster, because I suspect many of the undecideds are only claiming to be undecideds because they don’t want to admit that they intend to vote Conservative.

    In Wales I’d say:

    Labour will make losses and no gains: 24-26 seats
    Conservatives will make gains and no losses: 5-7 seats
    Lib Dems will have losses but also gains: 3-4 seats
    Plaid will have gains and no losses: 4-5 seats

    I won’t be placing any wagers though.

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