Referendum centre stage
The heart of the new democracy
Others will have or will blog in more detail, but thanks are due to Bethan Jenkins AM, whose idea it was and who worked hard to make it happen.
Referenda has been the topic of the week in Welsh politics, with Cheryl Gillan, the new Secretary of State clearly having to deal with it at the top or her in-tray. Betsan Powys summarised the situation as of two days ago with the usual accuracy and insight.
And now we have this response from the First Minister:
“I wanted to inform Assembly Members that I have today written to the Secretary of State for Wales reiterating that it is our understanding that the drafting work on the Order in Council to be laid before Parliament will have been substantially completed by the end of this month.
Secondly, we have provided a suggested question in both English and Welsh (attached) for the Secretary of State to consider.
Thirdly, we have expressed our strong preference for a referendum to be held in late October of this year.
It is now a matter for the Secretary of State to consider the question and the date.”
And the suggested question and preamble from the First Minister is as follows:
At the moment the Assembly can make laws about some, but not all, things which only affect people in Wales.
Parliament has decided that the Assembly should be able to pass its own laws for Wales on all devolved subjects. But this can only happen if voters in Wales support this in a referendum.
The devolved subjects include health and social services, housing, education and local government. The laws could not be about social security, defence or foreign affairs.
Do you want the Assembly to have the power now to pass laws on all the subjects which are devolved to Wales?
YES
NO
So what does this mean? It means that Carwyn is playing hard ball. As far as he’s concerned the Autumn referendum should be on and it’s up to the Secretary of State to take the next steps to make it happen. He’s even been kind enough to flesh out the wording so that she’s got less to do to achieve the Autumn target. Isn’t it lovely when politicians of different parties pull together like this? Over to you, Cheryl.
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Daran. Nick Bourne’s comments on his blog show that the Tories have everything to gain and absolutely nothing to lose from a referendum in the autumn and a ‘yes ‘ vote. Politically they are in a win win situation.
thanks for your contribution to the event, Daran. It was a successful evening. I intend to blog in full about it at a later date, but it was fascinating to hear about experiences elsewhere, and top tips on referendum campaigns more generally. I hope now the ball will start rolling, and that we will have a referendum in October. We need assurances soon so that a formal Yes Campaign can be set up, and start pounding the streets of Wales.
Nick Bourne has indeed blogged interestingly and positively about last night’s meeting and the need to take the agenda forward
http://nickbourneam.blogspot.com/2010/05/referendum.html
The question as posed by the First Minister is faulty and assumes knowledge by the electorate.
It only gives examples of the devolved subjects as it says, “The devolved subjects include health and social services, housing, education and local government.”
Yet the question posed, “Do you want the Assembly to have the power now to pass laws on all the subjects which are devolved to Wales?” includes the word “all” – a word which has not been defined in the preamble.
It is very probable that most of the electorate would not be able to list all the subjects that are devolved.
On such an important matter, this is loose and sloppy thinking by the First Minister and gives rise to doubts about his capability for the post to which he has been elected.
To most people the referendum won’t be about the nuance of the question, and future powers, but a straight out vote on whether they want an Assembly or not.
The nuance and detail will be only of interest to wonks and bloggers. If it becomes public domain it will only serve to annoy and put people off voting at all. So the sooner and cleaner it’s sorted the better.
If there is any political will it can be done in October. This is a very high stakes game being played and if it doesn’t come off we risk the end of One Wales and the door left open for Westminster style ConDem coalition a scary prospect in mine and many others minds.
Financier
the question as proposed by the FM is an attempt to make a very complex subject comprehensible to ordinary electors, it’s not an academic treatise on Assembly powers & certainly not loose or sloppy thinking
Devolution as it is, is a complex subject and one which, let’s face it, not many people really understand. I do think that the question that the First Minister has proposed to Mrs Gillan sets out what this referendum is about, in the most plain of words; as is necessary. It will not be good for the Yes camp if the question posed is difficult and quite frankly, over-political; people just ‘turn off’. They need to know, plain and simple, what the situation is now, and what the referendum is about, and as such, I do think that the question proposed by the First Minister is appopriate.
Any question put to the electorate must not be ambigious and if it is ambiguous could be subject to a legal challenge.
This is of course why we have the electoral commission involved. I would love to see everyone get three booklets through their doors, one for the electoral commission stating what is on offer and what it does, one from the no campaign saying what the disadvantages are and why we should vote no and one from the yes campaign stating the advantages and why we should vote yes.
Financier wrote
Any question put to the electorate must not be ambigious and if it is ambiguous could be subject to a legal challenge.
But the proposed quesiton is certainly not ambiguous (ie open to more than one meaning) whatever other criticism you have made of it. Anyway, as Lyn Thomas points out the Electoral Commission will have to apporve the question, which will make a legal challenge irrelevant.
In case anyone missed it, the Yougov May opinion poll has
YES- 50.1%
NO- 32.1%
Consistent with all similar polls, but with the data collected at a very Westminster-centric time.