I agree with Nick
Bubble — By Dominic Hannigan on May 12, 2010 5:29 pm
The men of the moment
I never knew what would happen, in fact, for much of the last few days, I’ve tried to switch off from it, but I am now relieved that it is over.
The election result was, I imagine, not predicted by anyone in politics (except those pesky exit pollsters). The Lib Dems were left in the worst position we could have ever have had nightmares about. The Clegg bounce had not only reversed, but had seemingly done us considerably more harm than good. We had lost seats to Labour, and in a string of seats we had suffered the worst misfortune in modern political history. The difference between the 57 seats we ended up on and a solid performance of 80-90 seats was probably only ten thousand votes or so across the UK.
So with the heavy hearts caused by the results, we were forced into the position where we had the biggest role to play in directing the formation of the next government.
In a world of rolling news, it was always going to be frustrating for a public who expect instant action on anything and everything. Those of us used to Welsh politics, understand that building stable government is too important to rush, but the UK media do not accept that. However, today’s announcements have shown that the wait was worth it.
I believe that Clegg’s strategy has been absolutely right. He had gone through the entire campaign saying that the party with the biggest mandate had the right to the first attempt at Government formation. He was therefore absolutely right to talk to Cameron first. It did however become obvious this week that there was another option, a coalition with Labour, with support from the other parties.
What became increasingly clear through Tuesday afternoon however was that there was no mood in Labour parliamentary ranks for this, no doubt with Mervyn King’s recent warnings ringing in their ears. I have no doubt that the mood in Labour was one of admission of defeat, and a positive eye towards opposition and a new leader.
Even while there is more natural common ground between Labour and the Lib Dems, many left leaning activists that I have spoken to in the last few days have felt strongly that a Lib/Lab coalition was not on the cards, not justifiable, nor even arithmetically possible.
My natural position would always be not to do a deal with the Tories, but there was no single other option. The allegation that the first thing that the Labour negotiating team said when they met the Lib Dem team was that they would not move on ID cards, is very serious for Labour. It is likely that they will be unable to simply blame the Lib Dems for “propping up the Tories,” as their unwillingness to do a deal themselves shows clearly that they have blame to shoulder as well. Whoever walked away, it is clear that Labour were not really serious, preferring the comfort of opposition rather than the responsibility of government.
Now we have the bare bones of the programme for government on the table. And from the party members I have spoken to, it is clear that it has the support of the vast majority of party members. For me, this was always about the detail of the programme, and I ask myself a simple question. What else can I do but support a Government which delivers so much of our platform. A commitment to lifting thousands of poor people out of the tax system, and cutting taxes for those on low and middle incomes; an agreement to rebalance the economy in an environmentally friendly way; hundreds of millions of pounds of extra funding for the poorest pupils in England and the direct funding effect of that here in Wales.
And then there is constitutional reform. And, boy, it is reform. Labour spent thirteen years failing on Lords reform, we will deliver it. Labour spent thirteen years failing on a fairer voting system, we will deliver it. Labour spent thirteen years failing on fixed term parliaments and recall of MPs, we will deliver it. I strongly hope and believe that in coming days we will also deliver on the long overdue issue of Barnet reform.
Whatever people think, we are entering a new period and politics which is fundamentally changed forever. There will be difficult times to come, but at every twist and turn, the Lib Dems will be making decisions based on the fundamental principles contained in our manifesto. Principles of fairness, reform and radicalism.
Tags: coalition, Conservatives, constitutional reform, Welsh Liberal Democrats
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8 Comments
Thanks for an interesting article, Dom, which I know wasn’t easy to write! The easier option would have been to let the Conservatives govern as a minority. Whatever else happened in the last few days, the Lib Dem leadership has shown it’s got real guts. And for a left-leaning Lib Dem like yourself to have been genuinely persuaded of the merits of the deal shows a maturity in the decision that was taken.
“My natural position would always be not to do a deal with the Tories, but there was no single other option.”
Yes there was another option – not to do a deal to prop up the Tories. Instead, enter into opposition, oppose the Tory Government and hold them to account.
As a party, the LibDems have every right to make that choice – just don’t expect people to forget who propped up this Tory Government, and don’t expect to be taken seriously as a progressive centre-left party any time soon.
@Daran: Real guts, or real shortsightedness.
There were other ways, as Anthony said: enter opposition, or support the Tory government issue by issue.
The National Interest and Strong Government are hilarious arguments; didn’t stop both LD and C banging on about an election for the last two years. They both mean “we were offered a deal and we took it”.
Discussing with a Tory-supporting friend today he raised a very salient issue: as a party, you have presented yourself as anti-Labour or anti-Tory (‘only the Liberal Democrats can keep the Tories out’ the ironic cry of some leaflets) depending on the audience. Half of that wriggle room is now cut away (yet your candidate in Thirsk is STILL asking for Labour votes to keep the Tories out!)
One of your biggest constituencies have in the past been students, with the news that the Libs will abstain from any vote on lifting or raising the cap on top up fees, I’m sure that will be excellent leaflet fodder for any and every Labour candidate in any and every area with even a sniff of students.
In many areas in Wales and Scotland this could decimate your vote.
I just hope for your sake that Nick Clegg doesn’t go the way of Ramsey McDonald.
Nice try Dominic but for anyone on the centre left of politics the agreement just doesn’t stack up. What you omitted in your article is that the Liberal Democrats have agreed to ‘accelerate the reduction in the deficit spending ‘ and to do this mainly through ‘reduced public spending’. You have also agreed to cutting an extra £6 billion this year despite Vince Cable arguing that it would be a disaster for economic recovery. You also exaggerate the effect of the decision to support the pupil premium on Wales. The money for this ( its about £2 Billion) will be found from savings within existing budgets. It isn’t extra money. If it is found from savings within the education budget then it will be cost neutral and have no Barnett consequentials. You have also agreed to support the recommendations when they come of the Browne report on student finance. All the indications are that the report will recommend higher fees. All the Liberal Democrats have been given on this is the right to abstain.
What have you gained in return? 20 of your colleagues have obviously gained the perks of power. But don’t exaggerate the effect of raising the tax threshold on the poor. It will lead to all of us getting £700 a year extra. Another holiday for me but totally irrelevant to the thousands who don’t even earn £10000. It will also cost £16 billion which will be found not from taxing the rich but by reducing other public services. You’ve also agreed to raise the pension age, to look at public sector pensions and to freeze the pay of thousands of public sector workers. As Nick Clegg and co gain massive pay rises because they are now ministers thousands of public sector workers including teachers and nurses will see their standard of living fall.
You laud the constitutional reforms proposed. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating. All you have got is a referendum on AV. You have no guarantee that it will succeed and it is not even proportional. The debates on the referendum will merely confuse voters as Tory and Liberal Democrat oppose each other. You offer an elected House of Lords but we still don’t know what electoral system will be used. If it is closed regional lists then it merely entrenchs the old politics as party appointees are selected not on abiltity but because they will toe the party line and not oppose the Commons. It will be worse than the present system which despite not being elected does often improve legislation. Fixed term Parliaments looks a classic case of locking in the Liberal Democrats. Why 5 years when in most democracies fixed term Parliaments are for 4 years? The lock can only be broken if 55% of MPs vote for dissolution. It is going to be interesting to see how that will work in practice. You’ve agreed to reduce the number of MPs and equalise constituencies . We will therefore have reduce fewer Welsh MPs. I wonder how Liberal Democrats in Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnor will react to this. Alex Carlile was upset in the 1990s when Montgomeryshire lost its council!
You could have supported a Tory minority government. But frightened by the thought of another election senior Liberal Democrats decided to sell their soul for a Jaguar. Just as Asquith used to complain in the 1920s that the Liberal Democrats were between a rock and a hard place your decision to enter into a civil partnership with the Tories has finished you as a credible party of the Left. As I warned in a previous post you are already losing your chance to put a distinctive Liberal Democrat case through the media. Look at last night’s Newsnight where there was no Liberal Democat MP involved in the discussion about new politics. You also will not benefit from a Labour Party tearing itself apart. There are too many of us still around to allow that to happen again. Instead you will face a Labour Party invigorated by the Leadership election and the rediscovery of its soul. As David Laws becomes the face of the cuts agenda over the next few years young people inspired to become involved in politics in Wales will flock not to the Liberal Democrats but to Labour and Plaid if they are nationalist. Just as the Thatcher years created a generation that will always be anti Tory. So Liberal Democrat involvement in a Tory dominated coalition committed to reducing the role of the state will contaminate the Liberal Democrat brand for years. Yesterday’s love in at 10 Downing Street will haunt you for years to come I’m afraid.
If this coalition does last the 5 years then we could easily see the demise of the Liberal Democrats as a separate serious political party . Social Democrats are already returning to Labour and the loss of councils such as Liverpool and Islington last Thursday gave Liberal Democrat councillors in other areas a taste of what awaits them next year and in 2012. It will fascinating to see what spin you put on the effect of the cuts of a Liberal Democrat Treasury Secretary on the Assembly and local government budgets in Wales in next year’s Assembly election.
As someone who’s mum and dad (both Labour Councillors) took a battering from Dominic and his Lib Dem pals in some of his newsletters – with pics of Blair and Bush, talk of illegal wars, absurd claims about Westminster spending cuts as well as the usual local lies – I look forward to getting the next Labour News out with the photo of an all too comfortable Nick Clegg smiling with Cameron on the steps of No 10 on the front page.
“Inside – full details of Lib Dem David Laws’ £6 billion cuts to frontline pulic services”.
Looking forward to your bar chart explaining that one, Dom.
It’s becoming clear that post election the Tories wanted it more than Labour.
“It’s becoming clear that post election the Tories wanted it more than Labour.”
Rubbish, Labour did not have the numbers or the legitimacy. Plaid can be as angry as they want but if you want to have a say in government you need votes. The fact that Plaid got so few rules them out.
The contact with Labour by the Libs was more about forcing more concessions out of the Tories.
Well all those Labour MPs who spoke out against a coalition with the Lib Dems as negotiations were taking place certainly didn’t help with the maths.
As regards legitimacy Labour and the LIb Dems combined had more seats and many more votes than the Tories.
I think if Labour had been genuine and serious about a coalition with the Lib Dems then some contact with the SNP/Plaid Cymru woud have been made while the LibDems were talking with(mainly with) the Tories.
SNP and Plaid Cymru might have ended up as deal makers or breakers but Labour it seems has decided to pull out before those parties had any input.
The Lib Dems contacted Labour but Labour didn’t back off it engaged in negotiations with them, maybe just so they could say they tried.