Good night, bad night

Westminster '10 — By Daran Hill on May 5, 2010 7:16 pm

Just a little bit of spin....

WHAT will make a good or bad result for Wales’ four main parties in a little over twenty four hours time? This is a bit of an indicative guide: the way things may pan out may span several options and scenarios for individual parties. But it might be a helpful guide to show just what is at stake in Wales as we enter the final phase of Westminster 2010…

Labour

Labour currently holds 29 out of the 40 Welsh constituencies, ensuring that Wales continues as a bastion for the party in the UK. Since the landslide election of 1997, Labour have only lost six seats in Wales – Monmouthshire, Cardiff Central, Blaenau Gwent, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Preseli Pembs and Clwyd West, and have gained one – Ynys Môn.

In this election, five Labour constituencies will be lost if the main challenger gathers a swing of up to 5% against Labour – Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Ynys Môn, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire and Aberconwy. The only realistically possible gain for Labour is that the threat of a Conservative government will be enough for the people of Blaenau Gwent to abandon People’s Voice and return to the Labour fold.

Very Good Election

  • Retaining all their marginal seats, including Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan.
  • Retaking Blaenau Gwent from the People’s Voice.

    • Good Election

  • In the south, losing Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire to the Conservatives but retaking Blaenau Gwent.
  • In the north, losing Aberconwy but managing to retain the Vale of Clwyd and Delyn.

    • Bad Election

  • Losing Newport West to the Conservatives and Swansea West to the Liberal Democrats.
  • See Plaid Cymru gain Ynys Môn.
  • The Conservatives winning the Vale of Clwyd and Delyn.

    • Very Bad Election

  • Labour losing both Cardiff West and Bridgend to the Conservatives – constituencies held by Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones respectively at Cardiff Bay.
  • The Liberal Democrats gaining Newport East and possibly Wrexham.
  • Clwyd South falling to the Conservatives.
  • Plaid Cymru gaining Llanelli.
  • Again losing all constituencies to the west of Rivers Clwyd and Loughor.

    • Liberal Democrats

    The Liberal Democrats currently hold four seats in Wales – Cardiff Central, Brecon & Radnorshire, Ceredigion and Montgomeryshire. The party gained two seats in 2005, ensuring that they had the highest number of Welsh representatives at Westminster since 1950.

    This election was expected to be very challenging for them as they battled against losing ground, while also hoping to make inroads or possibly gaining Swansea West and Newport East. Cardiff Central, since being won by Jenny Randerson at the first Assembly elections in 1999, and then by Jenny Willott at the last General Election, has become a solidly safe Lib Dem seat. The other three constituencies however face vigorous campaigning by the main challengers, and will certainly be seats to watch tomorrow night. What impact the Clegg factor is the big question…

    Very Good Election

  • Consolidating their vote in their four current constituencies – by withholding Plaid advances in Ceredigion and the Conservatives in Brecon & Radnor and Montgomeryshire.
  • Gaining any two of Wrexham, Swansea West and Newport East from Labour.
  • Make inroads into constituencies with a solid presence of Lib Dem councillors such as Cardiff South & Penarth and Wrexham.

    • Good Election

  • Losing Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru, but gaining Swansea West or Newport East from Labour.
  • Keep Montgomeryshire and Brecon & Radnor – meaning that their tally of MPs is unchanged.

    • Bad Election

  • Failing to gain any constituencies and also losing Brecon & Radnor to the Conservatives and/or Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru.
  • Making some inroads into Swansea West and Newport East but no prizes

    • Very Bad Election

  • Losing Montgomeryshire to the Conservatives, along with Brecon & Radnor and Ceredigion to Plaid. Therefore having only one Welsh representative at Westminster.
  • Failing to make any inroads into other constituencies.

    • Plaid Cymru

    2005 was a terrible year for Plaid Cymru. The party failed to retake Ynys Môn from Labour, and incumbent Albert Owen increased his majority despite a vigorous campaign by Plaid candidate and former MEP Eurig Wyn. To make matters worse, while Plaid’s eye was on retaking Môn, Ceredigion was snatched right under their noses by the Liberal Democrats, who ensured a substantial swing in their favour. The current tally of Plaid MPs is at its lowest since 1987.

    Plaid is facing a challenging election this time round. Not only will they be competing hard to bring Ceredigion and Ynys Môn back into the nationalist fold, but are also hoping to gain Llanelli and Aberconwy for the first time at the Westminster level.

    Very Good Election

  • Gain all four target seats –Ynys Môn, Aberconwy and Llanelli from Labour and Ceredigion from the Lib Dems.
  • Increase their share of vote in the valleys constituencies and making substantial inroads there for the first time in over a generation at a Westminster level.
  • See an increase of their share of the vote in constituencies like Cardiff West, with a strong presence of Plaid councillors.

    • Good Election

  • Gain their priority target seats of Ceredigion and Ynys Môn.
  • Securing a good second place in Llanelli and Abercowny.
  • Making inroads into some of the urban constituencies of south Wales.

    • Bad Election

  • Not gaining Ynys Môn from Labour and not making any substantial inroads into the valleys constituencies.
  • Seeing their overall share of the national vote decrease from 2005.

    • Very Bad Election

  • Failing to gain their number one target seat, Ceredigion along with not gaining Ynys Môn.
  • Not performing well in the other target seats of Llanelli and Aberconwy.
  • Seeing the party being marginalized in a whole raft of Welsh constituencies.

    • Conservatives

    The last General Election was a good one for the Conservatives in Wales. Following years in the political wilderness of Welsh politics, the party managed to gain three seats – Monmouth, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Clwyd West, and returned Welsh representatives to Westminster for the first time since 1992.

    The Conservatives will be hoping that this is their year in Wales, following an exceptional showing at last year’s European Elections. The party is competing against Labour for a raft of marginal constituencies, from the Vale of Glamorgan in the south to the Vale of Clwyd in the north. Of the five highly marginal seats that Labour is defending in Wales at the forthcoming election, four of them are high Conservative target seats. The party certainly hopes that they will see a return to their heyday of electoral fortunes in Wales as seen in the mid 1980s.

    Very Good Election

  • Gaining seats that are high middle ranged target seats such as Clwyd South and Newport West from Labour.
  • Causing an electoral upset by gaining Gower, Cardiff West and Bridgend.
  • Seeing their vote increase throughout Wales, and making inroads into Welsh speaking constituencies such as Ynys Môn.
  • Having Welsh representatives in double figures or close to double figures at Westminster.

    • Good Election

  • Win middle ranged target seats in the North East – Vale of Clwyd and Delyn.
  • Gain their main target seats of Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire and Aberconwy.
  • See their total number of Welsh MPs increasing to around 8 or 9.
  • Making inroads into a number of constituencies, such as Cardiff West and Cardiff South & Penarth.

    • Bad Election

  • Fail to win any middle ranged target seats and see Plaid Cymru gaining Aberconwy from Labour.
  • The election sees voters voting tactically in key constituencies in order to keep the Conservative candidate out.
  • See their tally of Welsh MPs only increase marginally.

    • Very Bad Election

  • Fail to win the Vale of Glamorgan or Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire.
  • Losing Preseli Pembrokeshire because of Stephen Crabbs’ involvement in the expenses scandal.
  • See no change in their tally of Welsh MPs from 3 – as they only gain Cardiff North.

    • Independents & Smaller Parties

    The only realistic hope for an Independent candidate this time round is if Dai Davies holds on to his seat in Blaenau Gwent. On paper he represents a marginal constituency and a swing of 4.6% to Labour would be enough to defeat him, but with a national swing predicted against the Labour Party this election, you could presume that his re-election was a certainty. However, many predict that the threat of a Conservative government will be enough to persuade a substantial proportion of the electorate to return their loyalty to Labour. Has the moment passed for the People’s Voice is the question being asked, and certainly this will be a must watch seat on election night. Perhaps the constituency will be one of only a handful of consolation prizes for Labour across the UK.

    The role of the smaller parties in this Election is minimal. UKIP and the Greens have representatives in many seats, but 2010 again will not be the year for a breakthrough for the smaller parties in Wales. However, in key marginal constituencies the presence of these candidates could sway the eventual outcome of the election.

    For example, what impact will the maverick former Conservative AM, Peter Rogers have on the result in Ynys Môn? Tune in tomorrow to find out…

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