Blogs on Brown
Bubble — By Duncan Higgitt on May 10, 2010 9:21 pm
Home for dinner, Sarah. Get the sherry ready
HANDS up all of you who thought Gordo’s resignation at the end of the day was an attempt to keep calm a FTSE that spent all day being calmed by the promise of Euro billions to our Greek partners?
I thought so, but my watch must have been fast or something. Guido Fawkes, ever quick off the mark, was first to plot sterling’s crash. Ah well, all that good work, Alistair. And to think, Twitter’s Gez Kirby called you a hero yesterday.
Here in Wales, our politicians were first out of the blocks. The boss, Bethan Jenkins, made it there first, with a “very thoughtful piece” (Daran Hill’s words, not mine) regarding the nature of coalitions, and the work and patience they require. She rounded off by observing:
It is very interesting to watch the coalition negotiations take place. Nonetheless I am an a little angry at how the media seem to be selling this as something unusual and new for these isles. Perhaps if they had taken a little more interest in the coalition discussions that took place in Wales in 2007 they would be more rehearsed in these discussions, and understand the dynamics of coalition a little better.
The Tories’ Rene Kinzett was, perhaps understandably, dismayed by events at Number 10. A former Lib Dem himself, who admitted to the “visceral, almost familial hatred” among his old colleagues for the party he now represents, he was nevertheless quick to berate Clegg for his double dating:
If Brown has offered himself up as the price for the Lab/LibDem coalition proposal to have any chance of success, the General Election of 2010 will go down in history as the time when the Liberal Democrats ducked and failed to grasp the great opportunity presented to them by the electorate to change British politics and society for good.
There was much fury abroad, not least from Alan ‘Welsh, wise and wonderful’ Davies, who was angry. Really angry. Of Brown’s decision to jump, he grumped:
This is not a career decision. It is all about finding a suitable leader to close a deal with a left leaning LibDem party. The duplicity of this is astonishing and my blood pressure is off the scale.
Go and have a lie-down, Alan. To be fair, this former military man stressed that his beef with Brown was largely down to his cussed treatment of the armed services, both as Chancellor and Premier.
For sheer bombast, however, the Beeb’s Nick Robinson was in a class of his own. Clearly exposed to one Blair speech too many, he breathlessly imparted:
Gordon Brown has made an audacious bid, not just to keep Labour in power but to reshape British politics by creating the sort of coalition not seen in Britain since the Second World War.
Ber-limey. The march of history at our backs. No doubt there will be more to come, but that’s it for the time being. Oh, apart from Iain Dale. But since he never pays any attention to us, he can sod off. The Tory.
Tags: 2010 General Election, coalition, Gordon Brown
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Although not a blog post, Carwyn Jones’ official statement on this issue is worth noting:
“There have clearly been significant problems with the negotiations that have taken place between the Tories and Liberal Democrats, in arriving at an agreement.
“Nick Clegg has now instead, requested formal negotiations with the Labour Party, with a view to exploring an alternative way forward and this is patently an important development. The Labour Party will engage with utmost sincerity and determination at these negotiations, to seek a successful outcome.
“The fact that Gordon Brown is selflessly putting the interests of the country first at this crucial juncture, speaks volumes about the man – as both the Leader of our country and our Party. For this he can only be admired.
“It will be crucial that any new Government protects Wales from the brunt of excessive spending cuts.”
The last sentence especially.
It will be interesting to see how all of this pans out with the people who really matter and that is Joe Public. Whether this is an historic moment to realign the progressive left only time will tell. It also shows that you should never underestimate the extent of tribal hatred of the Tories in both the Liberal Democrats and Labour. To succeed it also requires a number of assumptions. The first is that the coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats supported by others does provide a stable government. The second is that the markets will not be put off by any cuts package to reduce the deficit that the new coalition agrees. The idea of Wales somehow being protected from ‘excessive spending cuts’ by one group of politicians rather than another is more spin than economic reality. Look at most of the economic commentators and you will see that the differences between the parties except on timing is pretty small in the context of the overall deficit. The third assumption is that economic recovery will occur not only to help reduce the deficit but also to convince the electorate to stick with the progressive coalition in any subsequent election. The fourth assumption is that all Labour MPs will support whatever deal is agreed on PR and watching TV last night this already seems a very big if. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats must also be hoping that the reaction of right wing Tories to the failure of Cameron to get a majority will explode into outright civil war in the next few months. In electoral terms the assumption must also be that without the Brown factor Labour will do better in any election held in the next two to three years.
As someone who believes that the split between Labour and the Liberals in the 20th century was a major mistake I obviously want a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition to work. Given the extraordinary events of the last few days no one can predict how this will all pan out. If Labour MPs still picked the Leader I would have more confidence of success because it short circuits the process. But I cannot see either the markets or more importantly the public reacting well to the next PM being elected by an electoral college rather than through a general election. The spin of we live in a Parliamentary democracy doesn’t wash in an age where politics is dominated by personality not principle in the eyes of many electors. One effect of the Prime Ministerial debates was that many electors now expect the future PM to have taken part in those debates unless there is a change mid term. Even then many would argue for a new election. In the 1920s voters understood or were prepared to accept the manoeuvres of politicians in Parliament . Not many of them do in the 21st century. There is a thin line btween working for the national interest and self interest. Let’s also remember that the reaction of the voters to the events of 1923 /24 when the Tories with the largest number of seats and votes did not form a government was a thumping Tory majority and the destruction of theLiberals in the 1924 election. Only time will tell whether Gordon Brown’s decision was a brilliant tactical move or will it be seen like some of his other decisions in hindsight as a major error.
Jeff wrote: “In the 1920s voters understood or were prepared to accept the manoeuvres of politicians in Parliament . Not many of them do in the 21st century. There is a thin line btween working for the national interest and self interest. Let’s also remember that the reaction of the voters to the events of 1923 /24 when the Tories with the largest number of seats and votes did not form a government was a thumping Tory majority and the destruction of theLiberals in the 1924 election. ”
A historical parallel which had occurred me too.