A liberal interpretation
Bubble — By Daran Hill on May 11, 2010 5:39 pm
Two random primary colours
It is also clear that the Liberal Democrat/Labour talks never really got off the ground. This doesn’t surprise me: the numbers just weren’t there and there were no serious “big tent” talks of the type that would have been necessary to fulfil this by bringing in multiple parties. At the end of the day, the tide went out on Thursday for Labour across the UK as a whole and for its leader Gordon Brown in particular.
This was always a game of momentum as well as numbers and neither worked in Brown’s favour.
So the question remains as to what sort of government we will have in the UK now. Will it be a tactical supply pact, or a full blown coalition, described already by John Prescott as a ConDemnation?
Let me share a few thoughts. Firstly, for left leaning Liberal Democrats the damage has already been done. They have spoken to the Conservatives and that is a sin the Labour Party (nor Plaid, come to that) will ever let the electors forget. The battle line has been crossed and I can almost smell the ink on the leaflets already.
So if the damage has been done and every possible Liberal Democrat voter who dislikes the Conservatives has already been alienated by recent events, what is holding the two parties back from going further?
Since the election I have always felt that a minority Conservative government with a supply and demand arrangement in place was the most likely option. But the longer this has gone on, more common ground has emerged between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. And, most crucially, the deeper have the LibDems waded into the blue lake.
There is no way back now. It’s sink or swim. The LibDems – and the Conservatives too, for that matter – are taking the risk of their life. And it surely must be in for a penny, in for a pound.
That’s why in a matter of hours that, unless the peasants revolt, there will be a Conservative – Liberal Democrat government across the UK in a matter of hours.
And, I would suspect, a One Wales Mark II between Labour and Plaid in the Assembly a year from now.
Tags: 2010 General Election, coalition, Conservatives, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Liberal Democrats
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3 Comments
Daran
on your last point, that was my first thought this morning; Carwyn’s looking pretty good for next year already although Plaid’s position is more doubtful (Labour may not need them next May) they will certainly have been pushed closer together by this
“[T]he longer this has gone on, more common ground has emerged between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. And, most crucially, the deeper have the LibDems waded into the blue lake.” Agree. Once they had the promise of a referendum on AV, LibDem MPs jettisoned all superfluous ‘progressive’ baggage for the liberal (that is, free market) nostrums of the Tories and the chance of a few bums on the back seats of ministerial Jags. Few if any will believe their campaign warm words in the next round of elections; and their candidates will suffer the consequences.
“And, I would suspect, a One Wales Mark II between Labour and Plaid in the Assembly a year from now”. A year is a very long time in politics. You’re right that Welsh Labour will likely disdain to ally themselves with the FibDems in future. But after last week’s election result, it’s too soon to say how it will impact on Plaid’s electoral chances next year.
Perhaps this coalition will generate a more astute and pragmatic political class and electorate.
More grown up if you want to be patronising.
From a UK perspective
Labour and left leaning LIbDem supporters may be relieved that there is no Tory majority government.
Tory supporters may be pleased that they are in government even if it is through a coalition.
LibDem supporters may be pleased that they are taking part in government and have an opportunity to show that power sharing is not apocalyptic.