The Welsh Conservative renaissance?

Eric Pickles: robust and direct as he kicked off the Welsh Conservative election campaign today

His speech was in a clear context – it’s Labour v Conservatives in this election. And Gordon Brown agrees with him too. And, bizarrely, Eric Pickles also agrees with Mark Serwotka from the PCS trade union. We know this because he said so as he waved around a copy of today’s Western Mail, which was headlined that the current government is the worst in UK history.

It was interesting to see the Conservatives stressing their credibility in Cardiff too as they launched the campaign. Back in 1983 three of the city’s four constituencies returned a Conservative to Parliament, but things have been very different since and in 1987, 1992 and 1997 respectively the party lost each of its seats. But, with a strong showing in the 2008 local election, the party is once more back in business in the capital. And it went big on stressing the value of that capital today as Karen Robson, the Cardiff Central candidate, delivered a speech celebrating the city and Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan emphasised her roots in the city. Clearly this meant to rebut yesterday’s attack on her from Peter Hain.

It was, however, Eric Pickles who stole the show. And that’s why he was shipped in. To me the most interesting thing he talked about was cutting £1 in every £100 of government spending in order to balance the books. He argued with some passion that if families and people across the country could make economies during a recession, then so should government. It all sounded a little like Margaret Thatcher’s “housewife’s economics” which was deployed so effectively back in the late 1970s. If people can relate to government spending, or taxation, in a way that makes the issue intelligible to them, it tends to stick in their minds. Pickles’ tactic was very much based on that approach.

And there is much for the Conservatives to play for in Wales. The notion that Wales does not have a Conservative tradition is a nonsense. Back in 1979 one in three Welsh voters helped propel Margaret Thatcher to Number 10. The party is hoping that in 2010 Wales will deliver a similar boost to the party’s fortunes. After all, the past decade and a half has not been great for the party which in two out of the last three General Elections has returned no Welsh MPs at all. But they sense that things are changing. Last year’s Euro elections was a clear demonstration of that.

So how well will the Conservatives poll in 2010? To my mind they’ll definitely double their seats from their current tally of 3. They could on a good day reach of double figure representation from Wales for the first time since 1983. But since so much depends on the national/UK campaigns, I expect that like in 1992 and 1974 there will be some considerable movement between opinion polls and the poll that counts. In many ways I am keeping my powder dry: there is so much that can happen, so much that can change.

But I will make one clear prediction: if the Welsh Conservatives don’t end up as the second party of Wales in Westminster I’ll buy a hat. And then I’ll eat it.