2010 Constituency Profile: Rhondda

Unless there’s another political earthquake in the Rhondda Valleys, this particularly safe Labour seat will return Chris Bryant on May 6th

Candidates

Juliet Henderson (Conservative)
Chris Bryant (Labour)
Paul Wasley (Lib Dem)
Geraint Davies (Plaid Cymru)
Philip John (UKIP)

2005 Result

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Current Majority
16,242 (52.1%)

Swing needed
26.1%

Local Authority

Rhondda Cynon-Taff County Borough Council

Key towns

Rhondda Fawr and Rhondda Fach valleys including Porth, Maerdy, Treherbert, and Treorchy

Social Profile

Coal is no longer deep mined in Rhondda, but the two valleys of Rhondda Fawr and Rhondda Fach remain very much a “mining community”. There is little inward migration, making Rhondda one of the most static electoral populations in Wales. Indeed, 93.6% of its population were born in Wales. 11.6% of the population speak Welsh.

Economic Profile

Rhondda’s mining history makes it synonymous with an industry that no longer operates within its boundaries. The biggest employers locally are usually the public sector, though much has been done to attract and support new business too. The Pop Factory is a good example of innovative thinking that is intended to boost the local economy. The new Rhondda Relief Road is one of the biggest road building programmes in the UK and it is hoped it will further rejuvenate the area. Nevertheless, Rhondda continues to face some of the worst socio-economic problems in Wales: 10.1% of the population are .unemployed, often concentrated in a few blackspots at the heads of the two valleys.

Political Profile

Historically two seats, the modern constituency of Rhondda was created when Rhondda East and Rhondda West were combined in 1971. Typifying working-class Wales, it has historically returned Labour MPs with huge majorities and, despite depopulation following the closure of traditional industry; it has traditionally been a no-brainer as to who would win: if Labour were ever to weigh its votes it would be here. Until 1999, that is. In the first Assembly Election Plaid Cymru won the Assembly seat, sending tremors of tsunami proportions through the Labour movement. The local Labour party proved resilient and in 2003 organised what is now considered to be a textbook campaign to regain the seat. Indeed, they didn’t just win it, but rather stormed home to give Labour its biggest majority in the Assembly.

Labour also recaptured Rhondda Cynon Taff Council in 2004, sensationally removing Plaid Cymru councillors from seats they had held for several years. Rhondda has clearly returned to the Labour fold. By the 2005 General Election, Labour’s impregnable majority had been fully restored to its former glory, making Rhondda the safest seat in Wales.

Plaid Cymru have Geraint Davies as their candidate, the man who sensationally took Rhondda in 1999. However, history is very unlikely to repeat itself.

Prediction

Chris Bryant can safely assume that he’ll receive the backing of the electorate of Rhondda once more.

See also:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/rhondda
http://www.politics.co.uk/constituency/rhondda-$1276235.htm

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.