2010 Constituency Profile: Monmouth

David Davies has been one of Wales’ most prominent MPs for four years and will continue to be for the next four too

Candidates

Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru)
David Davies (Conservative)
Martin Blakebrough (Liberal Democrat)
Stephen Millson (Green)
Derek Rowe (UK Independence Party)
Hamish Sandison (Labour)

2005 Result

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Current Majority
4,527 (9.9%)

Swing needed
5.0%

Local Authority

Monmouthshire County Borough Council & Torfaen County Borough Council

Key towns

Monmouth, Chepstow, Abergavenny and Usk; plus parts of Cwmbran from Torfaen

Social Profile

An English-speaking border constituency that looks both to England and Wales, Monmouth is often seen as the least “Welsh” of Wales’ counties. Indeed, it voted 7 to 1 against devolution in 1979 and the constituency and local authority have often had more in common with English county seats than other rural Welsh constituencies. Nevertheless, with over 61% of its population born in Wales there is a danger of over-emphasising its cultural similarities to England. Poverty is generally limited to a few parts of Abergavenny, which has led to a significant decrease in per capita funding for the local authority from central government over the past decade. An 8.9% rate of Welsh speaking is amongst the lowest in Wales, even if it does demonstrate an upswing in the 1990s.

Economic Profile

Monmouth is highly dependent on the rural economy and also has a strong reliance on tourism. There is some light industry around each of its towns, and many of its residents commute to other urban centres, not least Bristol which is a short hop away over either of the Severn Bridges. An unemployment rate of just 4.0% reveals the buoyancy of the economy.

Political Profile

By returning a first and only past the post Conservative AM in 1999 and 2003, Monmouth showed its uniqueness. Indeed, the one party state seems to have returned to Monmouth, the truest Conservative heartland in Wales. The 1990s were, nevertheless, not a clear run for the party. Labour won it in a by-election in 1991, the Conservatives took it back in 1992, Labour won again in 1997 and 2001, though by that stage the seat had become the most marginal Westminster constituency in Wales. In the 2005 General Election the incumbent Labour MP was unseated and returned the seat to the Conservative fold with the biggest Conservative majority in Wales.

The Conservative resurgence is mostly down to one man – media savvy right wing showman and former AM David Davies, who switched to Westminster in 2007. He was the man who turned a majority of 2,712 to one of 8,510 between 1999 and 2003, and cleverly developed a personal vote that has clearly also now transferred to his party. Nick Ramsay, who succeeded him in the Assembly in 2007, pulled off a remarkable win too and actually consolidated the margin, so that the seat remains even safer in Assembly terms than it does in Westminster.

Prediction

The safest Conservative seat in Wales will retain that title for years to come

See also:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/monmouth

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.