2010 Constituency Profile: Islwyn

A solidly safe Labour seat, but could Labour rebels prove problematic for Don Touhig’s replacement?

Candidates
Daniel Thomas (Conservative)
Chris Evans (Labour)
Ashgar Ali (Liberal Democrat)
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru)
Jason Crew (UKIP)
John Voisey (BNP)

2005 Result

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Current Majority
15,740 (51.0%)

Swing needed
25.5%

Local Authority

Caerphilly County Borough Council

Key towns

Blackwood, Risca, Oakdale, Pontllanfraith, and Newbridge

Social Profile

Islwyn is one of the typical Welsh constituencies that lacks a single town of focus, its population often looking to Newport, Cardiff or Caerphilly for entertainment or retail opportunities. The electorate has been in decline over recent years, but this trend may be halted with the building of more small-scale private estates especially toward the Newport end of the constituency. 10.1% of the population are Welsh speaking – relatively typical for a valleys constituency.

Economic Profile

Islwyn is a former mining community that adapted more quickly than most other valleys areas to the end of the coal industry. It now relies on a more mixed manufacturing and service-based economy, with many of its residents commuting to Cardiff, Bristol or Newport. The reopening of the railway line through the constituency may only increase this trend, but does provide more economic stability to the area. Recent job losses may, however, have cast rather a cloud over the area.

Political Profile

Created in 1983, Islwyn incorporates most of the old Bedwellty constituency together with part of the old Abertillery seat. Islwyn is synonymous with Neil Kinnock, who represented the area from 1970 until he stood down from Parliament in 1995 to join the European Commission. The subsequent by-election saw Labour’s Don Touhig win the seat relatively easily for Labour, and he has retained it comfortably in subsequent Westminster elections.

But hang on – haven’t we forgotten something? Because in 1999 this seat was won in the Assembly by Plaid Cymru. “We haven’t got a biography of Brian Hancock!” came the cry from media bods when they realised, horror of horrors, that a real electoral shock had occurred. Plaid Cymru’s win was achieved on the back of a slump in the Labour vote due partly to a poor campaign, but also because Plaid Cymru was finally branding itself in a way that could appeal to even the most staunchly Labour pockets of South Wales East. Winning the Assembly seat was achieved on an almost unbelievable notional swing of over 35% which, had it been repeated across Wales, would have seen the formation of a Plaid Cymru government. However, Labour returned to form in 2003 and 2004, when large swings delivered the constituency and local authority safely back into their hands.

At Parliamentary level, Labour’s hegemony has never been threatened, and following the 2005 General Election, Don Touhig held the second safest seat in Wales. However, following the announcement of his intention not to stand again at this general election, four Islwyn Labour councillors left the party and vouched their support to an Independent candidate, over claims of central office influence in the selection of a successor to Touhig. Should the candidate gather enough support from disaffected Labour supporters the result in Islwyn could be close, one only has to look at neighbouring Blaenau Gwent! Alternatively, the Labour vote could split and haemorrhage, letting in Plaid rising star Steffan Lewis, who has fought a more sustained and relentless campaign in the seat than any

Predictions
It seems unlikely that the independent candidate will muster enough support to threaten Labour’s hegemony here. Chris Evans will be returned to Westminster and Islwyn will remain one of the safest Labour seats in Wales.

See also:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/islwyn

http://www.politics.co.uk/constituency/islwyn-$1276614.htm

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.