2010 Constituency Profile: Clwyd West

Currently the only Conservative seat in north Wales and the incumbent David Jones has a majority of only 133, however his majority will increase after May.

Candidates
David Jones (Conservative)
Donna Hutton (Labour)
Michele Jones (Liberal Democrat)
Llyr Huws Griffiths (Plaid Cymru)
Warwick Nicholson (UKIP)

2005 Result

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Current Majority
133 (0.4%)

Swing needed
0.2%

Local Authority

Conwy County Borough Council & Denbighshire County Borough Council

Key towns

Colwyn Bay, Rhos on Sea, Abergele, Kinmel Bay, Ruthin

Social Profile

A constituency in two parts – coastal strip and rural hinterland – Clwyd West seems relatively large but the majority of is population is clustered along the coast. The demographic in this area is generally elderly and retired, with a significant minority originally coming from North West England. This age-mix means that Conwy Social Services are often in demand, while there is a declining need for school places. There is a sizeable Welsh-speaking population of 28.2%, many of whom are located in Ruthin and other rural parts of the seat.

Economic Profile

Like many other North Wales seats, the tourist economy has a particular role to play, as does the agricultural economy. Food processing figures in the rural hinterland of the constituency. The North Wales Police Force headquarters in Colwyn Bay is one of the most significant local employers.

Political Profile

Clwyd West was a new seat created in 1997, but comprising much of the old Clwyd North West seat. Before 1997, Clwyd West would have been regarded a rock solid Conservative seat – now it is a marginal constituency and one of Wales’ key UK weathervanes. Clwyd West was once the Welsh Conservative seat with the biggest majority in Westminster, but like every other domino it fell to Labour in the 1997 and 2001 General Elections. The resilience of Labour for a decade was astounding. They won the seat in the Assembly in 1999 by a handful of votes and, against the odds, kept it four years later when Alun Pugh emerged victorious a second time.

The Conservatives finally won it back in 2005 but with a smaller majority than many had expected, signalling Labour had indeed established deeper roots and that there seemed to have been a degree of demographic change away from the Conservative Party. In 2007, Alun Pugh lost the seat to the Conservatives who gained Clwyd West with a comfortable majority of 1,596 and high flyer Darren Millar arrived at the Assembly.

The sitting MP David Jones should see his majority increase at the forthcoming General Election. His Labour opponent is trade unionist Donna Hutton.

Prediction
Currently Clwyd West is the most marginal seat in Wales – it won’t be on May 6th as David Jones substantially increases his majority.

See also:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/clwydwest
http://www.politics.co.uk/constituency/clwyd-west-$1276516.htm

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.