2010 Constituency Profile: Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Westminster '10 — By Daran Hill on April 7, 2010 9:00 am
A medium range Conservative target, Carmarthen West & South Pembs needs to be won by them if they stand a realistic chance of forming the government
Candidates
Simon Hart (Conservative)
Nick Ainger (Labour)
John Dixon (Plaid Cymru)
John Gossage (Lib Dem)
Ray Clarke (UKIP)
Henry Langen (Independent)
2005 Result
[table id=9 /]
Current Majority
1,910 (5.0%)
Swing needed
2.5%
Local Authority
Carmarthenshire County Borough Council & Pembrokeshire County Borough Council
Key Towns
Carmarthen town, St Clears, Narberth, Whitland, Tenby, Saundersfoot and Pembroke Dock
Social Profile
This is a mixed rural seat spanning two halves of historic old counties in the furthest corner of south Wales. The counties are both relatively inward looking, meaning there is less political and social coherence to the seat than one might imagine. 26.4% of the constituency are Welsh speaking, most of those in the Carmarthenshire towns.
Economic Profile
This seat has one of the most well developed tourist economies in Wales along the Pembrokeshire coast, and Pembroke Dock also provides a sea ferry link with Ireland. Agriculture remains a significant industry in the constituency, though economic diversification has brought new employers to the area. Many constituents travel to work outside the seat, be it in Swansea, Llanelli or at the oil refining facilities at Milford Haven.
Political Profile
Created in 1997, commentators originally envisaged this seat as a competitive two party seat between Labour and the Conservatives, but since its creation the Westminster electoral triumphs have all been Labour’s. The rogue card here has been a strong Plaid Cymru vote in 1997 and 2001 and when this fell away in 2005, it was the Conservatives who benefited. They polled less than 2000 votes fewer than Labour in 2005 and is a target seat at the next Westminster Election.
In the 1999 and 2003 Assembly Elections, Plaid Cymru polled an effective second place here, cutting the Labour majority to just 515. Therefore in 2007, the constituency was a target seat for both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives had experienced internal rifts as originally the local party selected John Jenkins, a local councillor and activist. His candidacy lasted less than 24 hours when Conservative HQ remembered he had once described gay people as having a “medical mental condition” The row re-erupted with the former Welsh Conservative chairman Sir Eric Howells saying he may back an unofficial Tory candidate in May’s Assembly election. However, to the surprise of many commentators, the Conservatives, with Angela Burns won by a majority of only 98 votes. The overall result was an effective tie, with all three parties divided by less than 250 votes.
Prediction
At this General Election, the Conservatives will be working hard to gain their second seat in west Wales. The odds must be on them doing so, but the campaign could yet count and save a seat for Labour where every vote counts.
See also:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/carmarthenwestandsouthpembrokshire
http://www.politics.co.uk/constituency/carmarthen-west-and-south-pembrokeshire-$1276162.htm
Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.
Tags: 2010 General Election, candidate selection, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
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4 Comments
As I have posted on the other profile I live in the other half of Carmarthenshire so can not claim the same knowledge of Carmarthen West but again I would ask if you have any links to the constituency. I think anyone that lives here would currently have the Tories as overwhelming favourites here. You say the campaign will count but thus far with the exception of Peter Hain rocking up about three weeks ago and claiming Labour have been good for the area, at the same time as standing outside one of the many many shops forced to shut in Carmarthen Town Centre, there has been no campaign.
Nick Ainger, whilst I am sure is a nice enough person and possibly a good Westminster MP in terms of following the whip, could very well have stood down at the last election for all you see of him. No press profile and very little presence at local events, campaigns and meetings. The Tories however have been very active. The only major factor that could have an impact is the fact that Angela Burns and Simon Hart simply do not like each other. I doubt it will have an impact, not before the election at least, but could potentially cause unrest amongst the party locally. I would be surprised if the Tories did not take this with a good 4,000 – 6,000 majority. I wouldn’t be surprised if Plaid actually challenged for second.
This has got to be one of the most fascinating match ups in the UK General Election.
Standing MP Nick Ainger is one of the architects of the Hunting Bill, preventing hunting with dogs.
The extreme converse is Simon Hart, leader of pro-hunting and countryside group , Countryside Alliance.
A match made in heaven.
Also, there is Plaid chair John Dixon, who came desperately close in the Assembly elections three years ago.
Simon Hart has been out and about but Nick Ainger has less time as the existing MP.
Too close to call a favourite and its all about who wants it the most.
“As I have posted on the other profile I live in the other half of Carmarthenshire so can not claim the same knowledge of Carmarthen West but again I would ask if you have any links to the constituency. I think anyone that lives here would currently have the Tories as overwhelming favourites here. You say the campaign will count but thus far with the exception of Peter Hain rocking up about three weeks ago and claiming Labour have been good for the area, at the same time as standing outside one of the many many shops forced to shut in Carmarthen Town Centre, there has been no campaign.”
My knowledge is not detailed and I do not live in the constituency, though it is one of the ones I discuss with political colleagues from different parties. It seems from your remarks on this and the other Carmarthen seat that I am over-estimating the strength of the local Labour campaign. That is an useful insight on your part and thanks for sharing.
I am calling this seat for the Conservatives but do not believe that is a foregone conclusion. The national campaign will matter – and in a seat like this that is crucial. Unless something very dramatic happens, I can’t see four figure majorities here on any side.
The point is, though, that I’m trying to go out on a limb and predict things. Sometime I be wrong, and hopefully sometimes I may be right. But the most important thing is to present a case which prompts people to chip in with their views, some of whom of course will have more knowledge than me.
Daran, I have watched these two over the last couple of years – Nick Ainger and Simon Hart.
Fascinating ploys. Nick Ainger’s glossy news he circulates appears to have no mention of the word ‘LABOUR’, as if he is stressing for the people to take him as an individual and his achievements. He has been on video saying ‘He is not a member of the government’ (not a minister) but does actually serve on the finance committee.
Simon Hart has seemingly dropped himself as Countryside Alliance, that hunting with dogs may not be an overall vote winner, more of a vote loser.
I think if Nick Ainger can put the effort in and keep stressing ‘himself’ rather than Labour, I think he will win.
If he doesn’t go for it he will let Mr Hart in, who is very hungry for victory.
The seat itself is enigmatic. To the east is Carmarthen, the capital of Welsh speaking Wales perhaps and the seat of the first nationalist MP Gwynfor Evans. While in the West at Pembroke dock and Narberth there is a ‘British first, Welsh second’ feeling.
Not forgetting John Dixon, who may sneak the seat for Plaid.
The press need to do something on this fascinating battle.