2010 Constituency Profile: Cardiff West

A seat that is changing, but is unlikely to change party on this occasion

Candidates

Kevin Brennan (Labour)
Jake Griffiths (Green)
Mike Hennessey (UK Independence Party)
Rachael Hitchinson (Liberal Democrat)
Mohammed Sarul Islam (Plaid Cymru)
Angela Jones-Evans (Conservative)

2005 Result

[table id=26 /]

Current Majority
8,167 (23.6%)

Swing needed
11.8%

Local Authority

Cardiff County Borough Council

Key towns

Ely, Canton, Llandaff and Radyr

Social Profile

Cardiff West is a mixed, cosmopolitan constituency containing wealthy middle class suburbs such as prosperous Llandaff and Radyr, classic inner city wards like Canton and large areas of public housing such as the Ely council estate. One of its most noticeable parts is Pontcanna, Cardiff’s “Welsh Quarter”, and overall 12.1% of the population speak Welsh.

Economic Profile

The economy is strong in Western Cardiff: affluent parts of the seat never experience the effects of economic downturn, not least because of the number of public sector workers including senior civil servants and BBC employees. The unemployment rate of 7.4% seems to be disproportionately focused on Ely. Tourism figures on the periphery of the seat with the Museum of Welsh Life at St Fagan’s.

Political Profile

The former seat of Speaker of the House of Commons George Thomas, Cardiff West was held briefly by the Conservatives in 1983-87 on the back of a sharp fall in the Labour vote. However, it is now a safe Labour seat, and virtually synonymous with its current AM and one-time MP Rhodri Morgan. The biggest political beast Wales has to offer roams this constituency. He has made Cardiff West his own and in 1999 Rhodri Morgan was the only Labour Assembly Member to increase his notional share of the vote in the first Assembly election. Indeed, in 1999 he achieved the safest seat in the Assembly with a majority equivalent to 46% of the electorate. The Labour leader walked home in 2003 and again held the seat with a comfortable majority in 2007, albeit after a 10.4 % drop in his support.

Over the last decade, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru have all seen an upturn in their support and Cardiff West could well develop into a four way marginal in the future. All four main political parties have bases of support in Cardiff West; Labour in Ely and Canton, Plaid Cymru in Fairwater and Riverside, Lib Dems in Caerau and Llandaff, and the Conservatives in the leafy outlying areas.

Any national swing to the Conservatives will be reflected here, but a divided opposition should be of assistance to Labour. However long term change seems underway in Cardiff West, that could be accelerated due to the retirement of former First Minister Rhodri Morgan in 2011.

Prediction

Cardiff West remains a fairly safe Labour seat and Kevin Brennan is likely to be returned to Westminster.

See also:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/cardiffwest See also:

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.