2010 Constituency Profile: Cardiff North

Popular local MP Julie Morgan looks likely to be swept away by a national and local swing to the Conservatives in one of their top target seats

Candidates

John Dixon (Liberal Democrat)
Jonathan Evans (Conservative)
Lawrence Gwynn (UK Independence Party)
Julie Morgan (Labour)
Llywelyn Rhys (Plaid Cymru)
Chris von Ruhland (Green)

2005 Result

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Current Majority
1,146 (2.5%)

Swing needed
1.3%

Local Authority

Cardiff City and County Council

Key towns

North and north west Cardiff including Whitchurch, St Mellons, Heath, Rhiwbina and Tongwynlais

Social Profile

Largely middle-class, Cardiff North has an older and ageing electorate and one that is less fluid and changing than other parts of the city. Many of its component parts feel more like large villages than parts of a larger city, having retained strong high streets and local services. Perhaps unexpectedly for a Cardiff seat, 11.5% of the population are Welsh-speaking, due perhaps to the popularity of bilingual education and changing patterns of employment in Cardiff.

Economic Profile

Cardiff North takes in many of the economically highly-placed areas of Cardiff and contains one of the highest proportion of non-manual workers in Britain. Areas like Lisvane and Old St Mellons are amongst the most affluent in Wales, the Heath and Rhiwbina are long-term middle class strongholds, while the relatively new housing estates of Thornhill and Pontprennau house many of the city’s upwardly mobile thirty-somethings.

Political Profile

Redefined in 1983, Cardiff North is the successor seat to Cardiff North West and has for many years been the most “traditionally suburban” seat in Wales. As such it is a real weathervane of the strength of UK Governments, generally following the pattern of the UK election as a whole. Thus although it is a traditionally Conservative seat, it has in recent years returned many Labour local councillors, and thrice elected a Labour MP. This is a top prize for the Conservatives. In 2007 Jonathan Morgan took the brave move of deciding to seek election here rather than the safe bet of staying with his list seat. This paid off magnificently for him; with a 9.7% swing to the Conservatives he returned the constituency to the Tory fold.

At this General Election, Julie Morgan is for the first time defending a highly marginal constituency. The Conservatives have selected former Brecon and Radnor MP and recent MEP Jonathan Evans as her opponent, and he needs a swing of only 1.3% to regain this natural Conservative constituency.

Prediction

A Conservative gain is probable in May with one of the most able of his generation of Welsh Conservatives returning to the Commons after a thirteen year absence.

See also:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/cardiffnorth See also:

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.