2010 Constituency Profile: Cardiff Central

Arguably the historically most persistently marginal seat in Wales is now anything but and is the safest Liberal Democrat seat in Wales

Candidates

Sam Coates (Green)
Susan Davies (UK Independence Party)
Jenny Rathbone (Labour)
Karen Robson (Conservative)
Chris Williams (Plaid Cymru)
Jenny Willott (Liberal Democrat)

2005 Result

[table id=27 /]

Current Majority
5,593 (15.5%)

Swing needed
7.8%

Local Authority

Cardiff City and County Council

Key towns

Cardiff’s city centre and North East from Cathays to Pentwyn

Social Profile

Geographically, Cardiff Central is easily the smallest and most compact constituency in Wales (just 17 km square), and perhaps the only one without any rural dimension whatsoever. The constituency also boasts a significant ethnic minority population on a par with some of the inner city wards in smaller English cities in terms of size and diversity. It has the highest number of students living in any Welsh constituency, which influences the social profile heavily. 10.2% of the constituency speaks Welsh.

Economic Profile

Cardiff Central contains the highest proportion of employees in the service sector in Wales and, as expected for a small urban seat, many of its constituents work outside the constituency. Public sector workers, especially academics and those in local government, make up a significant section of the electorate. Unemployment at 6.4% is higher than most people would have expected.

Political Profile

Created in 1983, the Cardiff Central seat incorporates the city centre and much of the former Cardiff North area. With strong local politics, and being seen as something of a weathervane seat in the city, Cardiff Central has previously been a persistently marginal which exemplifies trends across the rest of the city. The Conservatives won it in 1983 and 1987 but then lost it to Labour in 1992, with the Labour majority boosted in 1997. The Liberal Democrats, however, made it their number one seat in Wales and have spent the last decade making Cardiff Central a natural home. Boosted by strong local government returns, the Liberal Democrats cut the Labour majority to under 1000 in 2001 and went on to make a convincing win in 2005, taking nearly 50% of the total vote. Cardiff Central is thus unique in Wales in having been won by all three major UK parties in the last twenty years.

Foreshadowing their Westminster win, the Liberal Democrats won the seat in the 1999 and 2003 National Assembly elections. Local member Jenny Randerson was massively boosted during her second Assembly contest, with the seat moving from marginal to rock-solid status. The 2004 and 2008 local elections saw the Liberal Democrats expand their base in the area. In 2007 Labour experienced their only positive swing in any constituency In Wales at Cardiff Central, due to an effective local campaign. However this only dented slightly the majority of Jenny Randerson as she was duly retuned to the Liberal Democrat benches in Cardiff Bay.

Cardiff Central has become the safest Lib Dem seat in Wales. Jenny Rathbone has fought an energetic campaign for Labour but the tide is against her party. The Conservatives also might pick up some votes in this constituency at the next general election as they have in Karen Robson their strongest and most hard-working candidate here in recent years and is likely to reverse the decline in their vote by some way, but this would only have a marginal effect overall.

Prediction

Jenny Willott is sure to be returned to Westminster. The Lib Dem machine in Cardiff Central has been a model of consolidation and machine politics.

See also:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/cardiffcentral

Image produced from the Ordnance Survey electionmap service. Image reproduced with permission of Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services – where electionmaps, Ordnance Survey and Land and Property Services are hyperlinks to http://www.election-maps.co.uk, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/ and http://www.lpsni.gov.uk/ respectively.