Split is what we are

No, not that Split

WELSH LABOUR has today published what it claims is a “hard hitting” dossier exposing the Welsh Conservatives’ splits on devolution. Nick Bourne, responding in the Western Mail, has pointed up Labour’s own splits. Peter Black, meanwhile, has had a go at both.

“Splits” among your opponents are always a good and often legitimate subject of exploration, but when it comes to devolution it is perhaps worth questioning why a party isn’t split on the subject. After all, the voters are.

Consider, if you will, the most recent published poll on attitudes to devolution. It shows, as Welsh Labour’s dossier states, 7 out of 10 (71%) of respondents supporting devolution, a conclusive level of support in just about anyone’s book. But within this there is only a  small majority (53%) in favour of extending devolution, within which a mere plurality (40%) support a law-making/tax-raising Assembly, while around one in six (13%) support the actual proposed upgrade to law-making powers only. The remainder (18%) support the status quo. So the idea that the public clearly favour devolution should always carry the significant caveat that within this there are divisions about what form it should take. And that of course still leaves 29% of respondents who do not say they favour devolution at all. 11% want independence, while a slightly greater proportion (13%) want abolition. The remainder have no clear view.

If our political parties are in any way representative of the wider population, you’d expect them to reflect this diversity of opinion. And you’d be right. For while the focus of Welsh Labour and Messrs Bourne and Black is on the elected representatives’ views, the opinions of the party’s bases are just as intriguing. Here a 2008 survey (p.61) found 39% of Welsh Tories in favour of primary powers, as against 44% for Labour, while 30% and 26% respectively supported the status quo, and 25% and and 13% in turn opted for abolition. With both the parties’ supporters split at least three ways is it any wonder their representatives might also perhaps take divergent views?

The existence of splits is not something either party should deny. It may cause all manner of awkwardness, but perhaps it shows that each is in touch with its base in a way that might otherwise be deemed to be a good thing. Those with a clear and united approach, e.g Plaid and the Lib Dems, can rightly challenge their opponents to show leadership, even if they are otherwise content to condemn attempts to impose discipline as “control freakery”. And perhaps the united parties might also look to their own bases; that same 2008 survey showed the Lib Dems split perfectly evenly (38% each) on the status quo/more powers question, while Plaid supporters exhibited the greatest opinion spread of all, with an eyebrow-raising 12% backing the Assembly’s abolition, half as many as who support independence. With the voters split, and party identifiers split, the issue is not perhaps whether Labour and the Tories can cohere around a position, but how the others manage to expound such definitive approaches at odds with so many of their supporters.