Can we win a referendum? Yes we can

A Yes vote will mean more powers exercised in the Senedd Siambr

I HAVE voted in three referenda in my life, and 1979 wasn’t one of them. I was only 12 then. I was the only non-sixth former in Lampeter Comprehensive School wearing a Ie dros Gymru sticker. I was more traumatised than most by the result of the 1979 referendum. Post 79, I became first a Communist, then a Christian, and then – for a short while – even a vegetarian,before finally calming down again in my late teens.

I’ve voted No twice in a referendum, and Yes once.  Hopefully, it won’t be too difficult to work out when I voted Yes. The two No votes might be a bit more challenging. The clue is that I have voted all my life in only one place: Ceredigion.

In 1989, I voted in the Ceredigion Referendum on the opening of pubs on a Sunday. I voted No, not because I was against drinking alcohol on a Sunday, but because I had a romantic notion of wanting to maintain Ceredigion as a little unique gem in a necklace of conformity. Therein lies the complexity of a referendum – people can have very differing views as to why they chose to cast their vote in a particular way.

(The vote was very close – 10,961 voted to open the pubs, with 10,133 against. Over 20 years later and we’re still arguing over licensing the sale of alcohol in Ceredigion – this time it’s a over a particular week in May this year, when the Urdd Eisteddfod comes to Aberaeron.)

In 1997, I voted Yes in the Devolution Referendum. I campaigned locally, spending most of my time telephone canvassing the rural Ceredigion wards. My abiding memory is the stark difference I witnessed between the Welsh-speaking agricultural community who were, on the whole,  inherently conservative and reluctant to consider the need for change; contrasted with the confidence of people having moved to Wales in recognising a right for Wales to have its own democratic voice. I’m not convinced I’ll see such a stark difference when I go canvassing later on this year or next year for a Yes vote in Ceredigion.

My third referendum came in 2004 – the referendum to establish a Mayor in Ceredigion, following a campaign against the 6,500 new houses proposed by the Unitary Development Plan. I was heavily involved in the No Campaign, which got 73% of the vote.  Even though I was opposed, I did consider the Mayor of Ceredigion probably the most perfect of jobs.

My memory of that campaign is that people were completely confused as to why there needed to be a change and what that change would mean, and if people are not clear why there needs to be a change, then they will most definitely vote to stay with the status quo.

We have just over one year to go of the One Wales Government.  In that remaining time, a referendum should be held to give the people of Wales the right to decide on whether the National Assembly should be able to legislate on devolved matters. For many in my party, the inclusion of this commitment was a deciding factor in supporting this particular coalition. Many had been nervous that the trigger vote would not be tabled by the One Wales Government. They were proved wrong.

The First Minister has been marking his first 100 days in office this week – he should be very proud in particular that on one of those days all members of the Assembly voted in favour of triggering a Referendum.  Somewhere roughly between his 350^th and his 600^th day in office, I hope he can be even prouder of having been First Minister on the day the people of Wales supported legislative powers.

Once the UK General Election is over, then there should be an immediate setting up of a Yes Campaign. I am of course taking for granted here that the referendum question will be framed in such a way that those supporting legislative powers on devolved matters will be asked to vote Yes. If not, it would be highly confusing.

Cymru Yfory is doing an excellent job in filling the current void of no formal Yes campaign. They are clearly articulating the reasons why the current system is not an effective system of legislating and why there needs to be a clear, unambiguous, fully accountable system. I am pleased that they are making use of the Red Meat LCO in highlighting the cumbersome and wasteful nature of the current system. For those who don’t know, the Red Meat LCO contained nothing of any political or policy controversy, but it took the Assembly two years to achieve the legislative competence with the LCO being scrutinised by two Committees in two Legislatures, writing two reports, with all in agreement. All of that preceded the proper scrutiny of the Red Meat Measure by the Assembly, and recently passed.

The passage of the Red Meat LCO has been in complete contrast to the experience of the Housing LCO, where party politics has played a large part in thwarting it. The debate has focused on the Conservative Party’s opposition to allowing the Assembly the competence to legislate to allow local authorities to withdraw right to buy in areas of housing pressure, whether this One Wales Government or any future Welsh Government wanted to do this or not.  This whole issue is made more bizarre when Tory AMs spoke clearly in support of legislative powers for the Assembly within the next year.

A cross-party, no-party Yes campaign group should be established urgently after the Westminster Election. Nothing much has been lost from not having such a group in advance of the General Election.  After it, however, is a different matter.  Structures, campaign material and tactics, logos and leaders have all to be agreed in a short space of time.  That will allow those of us who wish to campaign and urge people to vote Yes to get out and talk to people about the inefficiencies of the current system and the need for a clearer, more accountable system.

Accountability is a key factor in this context. People vote in an election for a particular party to deliver a legislative programme outlined in its manifesto. If that ability to legislate is at the discretion of another parliament, voted by a different electorate in a different election, then there is inadequate accountability.

Some have commented that the referendum will be nothing more than a tidying up exercise. I disagree. It will ask a fundamental question of the Welsh electorate. On devolved matters such as health, education, housing and agriculture, do you believe that laws should be made by the Assembly or that agreement should be sought on a case by case basis every time from Westminster?

It is an important decision, and it is wrong to attempt to conceal that fact by describing the proposal as a bit of a makeover. The ability to freely legislate on key domestic policies would reside in Wales for the first time in its democratic history – and by elected representatives only accountable to the people of Wales.

It would be a step change in the legislative process. In contrast, a No vote would continue the piecemeal, confused system, which would increase over time the legislative competence of the National Assembly. In 15 to 20 years you may get to roughly the same place as what could be delivered overnight by a Yes vote, although in an incoherent and cumbersome fashion, and without having sought the consent directly of the people of Wales. And there would have been a lot of unnecessary Committees and Reports, at a not inconsiderable public expense.

The devolution referenda in 1979 and in 1997 were dominated by discussion about the cost of devolution. It was a pretty persuasive argument against for many I’m sure. The same will not be true of the next Referendum. In fact, it could be argued that, by abolishing the twin-track need to legislate and scrutinise on the same issue in Westminster and the Assembly, there will be significant cost efficiencies to a Yes vote in a Referendum.  Currently Welsh ministers, our lawyers and civil servants have to prepare, discuss and negotiate LCOs with Westminster ministers and civil servants.

Assembly and Westminster committees have to scrutinise and report on LCOs.  It is time and money, and it would all be done away with by a Yes vote for legislative powers on devolved matters in a referendum. Welsh Ministers and AMs only would prepare and scrutinise and pass Welsh Acts on devolved matters. Westminster Ministers and MPs would be free to focus on all non-devolved issues.

In my view, a successful referendum does not require any increase in the number of AMs. Post 2007, 60 AMs have managed a combined LCO and Measure system. By getting rid of the LCO system, there is no case for more AMs.  Better legislation and better scrutiny can come from 60 AMs when they are not bogged down by the cumbersome LCO process.

Those who oppose a Yes vote in a referendum, and True Wales in particular, should not attempt to completely mislead the Welsh people by claiming that there would be huge expense resulting from a Yes vote. I’ve no doubt that there will be much scaremongering on cost as part of the cut and thrust of the political debate surrounding the referendum.  That’s inevitable. However, what will not be acceptable to the Welsh taxpayer is if public money is used to fund the publication and promotion of wholly inaccurate information.

The Yes and No campaigns may receive public money to fund their campaigns. Those campaign groups should therefore have to ensure that all information provided and promoted by them is accurate, and not in any way misleading. True Wales is in no way promoting a true picture of the choice that will be put to the people of Wales. Over half the recent leaflet distributed by True Wales focuses on the possible cost of independence for Wales. This referendum will be nothing about independence, and will have no fiscal implications at all for Wales.  I would rather no public money be spent on funding two campaign groups than if public money was used to peddle lies. The role of the Electoral Commission will be key in ensuring that the people of Wales have accurate information on which they can decide how to cast their vote.

If there is a successful Yes vote and legislative competence on devolved matters comes to the National Assembly, what happens next?  Well, there would be a much clearer understanding for the people of Wales on where responsibility for legislation on various matters lies in either Wales or Westminster.

AMs elected in 2011 will be able to focus on legislating. The new Government elected from May 2011 will have a fighting chance of fulfilling its legislative programme as outlined in a manifesto or coalition agreement, without that being thwarted by time delays in another parliament or political interference in another parliament.

Am I confident that a Referendum can be won?  Yes I am. The polls clearly indicate support for the Assembly and for legislative powers. It could, of course, be lost. I tend not to be the type to obsess over how much support should the polls be showing before a referendum is held. A living democracy cannot and should not be perfectly manipulated. The people of Wales decide the outcome of a referendum – not the government of the day, not the Secretary of State of the day, not the press and media and not the scaremongerers.  I am confident that the reasonable arguments favour legislative powers for the Assembly.

I know that throughout Wales there are very many people who will want to campaign for a Yes vote.  If the people of Wales don’t agree – well then, just like post-1979, I could become a vegetarian communist once again. Although I doubt very much that I’d ever be re-elected in Ceredigion.