BBC Wales Poll – Initial reflections
The Ayes have it - at least on this polling
Looking first at the future of devolution in Wales, the poll highlights growing support for more powers for the Assembly. Respondents were asked the question: You may have seen or heard that Assembly Members have voted in favour of holding a referendum on giving the National Assembly full law making powers. If there were to be a referendum, how would you vote?
56% answered in the affirmative, supporting giving the National Assembly full law making powers in the areas for which it has responsibility; while 35% opposed this change and 10% didn’t know.
For those of us supportive of increasing the Assembly’s powers, we will draw further comfort from stratifications of the data, which show that:
This 21% gap between those who would support more powers and those who would not is the biggest since BBC Cymru Wales started polling two years ago. In 2008 the gap was 7% and last year it had risen to 13%.
It is also worth comparing this data also to the YouGov survey of last October, which investigated a similar proposition:
“If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales full law-making powers how would you vote?”
I would vote Yes (i.e. in favour of giving the National Assembly full law-making powers) – 42%
I would vote No (i.e. against giving the National Assembly full law-making powers) – 37%
Wouldn’t vote – 6%
Don’t know – 15%
Labour also received a significant endorsement through the poll. When surveyed, 47% said that putting aside their own party preference, they most trusted Gordon Brown and Carwyn Jones to steer Wales towards a strong economic recovery. This compares to 24% supporting the David Cameron and Nick Bourne alternative. As the BBC further reports, 14% plumped for Plaid Cymru’s Ieuan Wyn Jones and Elfyn Llwyd while 9% said they most trusted Liberal Democrat leaders Nick Clegg and Kirsty Williams.
Not only do these results spell good news for Labour in terms of re-establishing its economic credentials in Wales and therefore grim reading for the Conservatives, they also show that Plaid Cymru’s Ieuan Wyn Jones has not achieved particularly strong trust in this area throughout the electorate despite being Economic Development Minister in the Welsh Assembly Government.
Carwyn Jones can also smile based on the views of the electorate on who would make the best First Minister out of the four Welsh party leaders. The new incumbent to the post scored 38% compared to 16% for his deputy, Ieuan Wyn Jones, and just 16% and 10% respectively chose Nick Bourne or Kirsty Williams. For Jones and Bourne especially, who have been leading their parties for approximately a decade each now, these are not positive results. After all, a man elected just three months ago is out-stripping them by miles.
It is however difficult for any of the party leaders, including Labour’s, to draw comfort from the 26% who indicated they had no preference at all on this issue – a substantially higher indicator of non-commitment than that received to pretty much every other question in the survey.
| These figures are from an exclusive poll commissioned by BBC Cymru Wales. ICM research conducted a total of 1000 interviews with adults in Wales aged 18+ by telephone on 19-23rd February 2010. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults in Wales. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. |
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Add together the following:
40% said they would like to see an assembly with full law-making powers and some taxation powers
13% said they wanted the assembly to have full law-making powers but no taxation powers
11% want independence
Two thirds want greater powers, a figure that seems to increase in the younger age group.
I’m not surprised the economic competency question is dominated by Lab v Tory – that’s been the whole thrust of the media coverage of late.
Independence is not more powers. It’s independence.
Polls mean nothing really – or rather, there is only one poll that matters ultimately
However, all these polls show that the “no” camp is either static or declining – which means (un)True Wales is failing to get their point across, and is swimming the wrong way against the Severn Bore. Time to stop struggling people, turn around and swim with the rest of us.
“they also show that Plaid Cymru’s Ieuan Wyn Jones has not achieved particularly strong trust in this area throughout the electorate despite being Economic Development Minister in the Welsh Assembly Government.”
Ouch. That comment seemed to jar in this otherwise fair article.
The ‘who is best to deal with the economy…’ question is best dimissed on the basis on parity of coverage. The fact is that Gordon Brown and David Cameron have infinitely more coverage, particularly during the financial crisis.
I know that does not work for Nick Clegg, but then perhaps they would have got more if it had been Vince Cable and Kirsty.
Cyntaf – “Ouch. That comment seemed to jar in this otherwise fair article.”
Don’t see how it’s unfair. Ieuan is Economic Development Minister here in Wales. He therefore has key responsibility for economic recovery. If Labour is profiting in Wales from a recovery – real or not – why isn’t Plaid? It’s not a big headline issue from the survey, but it’s certainly noteworthy.
If anyone is interested, Ramblings will have a few things to say on this.
Daran (no disrespect intended) you’ve made an error which colours your analysis.
“Carwyn Jones can also smile based on the views of the electorate on who would make the best First Minister out of the four Welsh party leaders. The new incumbent to the post scored 38% compared to 16% for his deputy, Ieuan Wyn Jones, and just 16% and 10% respectively chose Nick Bourne or Kirsty Williams. For Jones and Bourne especially, who have been leading their parties for approximately a decade each now, these are not positive results. After all, a man elected just three months ago is out-stripping them by miles.”
The actual poll reads-
Carwyn- 38%
IWJ- 16%
Bourne- 10%
Kirsty- 10%
So Ieuan, a government Minister, is outstripping both opposition leaders.
Ieuan is doing well from these polls, growing Plaid’s Westminster support and being the second most popular party leader in the Assembly despite being in government.
“He therefore has key responsibility for economic recovery. If Labour is profiting in Wales from a recovery – real or not – why isn’t Plaid?”
Because Labour is in Government at Westminster and Plaid is in opposition in Westminster, quite obviously?
“Economic Development Minister here in Wales. He therefore has key responsibility for economic recovery…”
But as you well know that this is proportionally massively less policy levers, particularly around naked economic levers. The economic crisis is ultimately a very British, very UK and the battleground lies with policy solely decided in Westminster.
Added to the massive disparity in media coverage afforded to the Westminster parties as opposed to Plaid, and your point seems a bit awry.
Ramblings – “Ieuan is doing well from these polls, growing Plaid’s Westminster support and being the second most popular party leader in the Assembly despite being in government.”
Fair point which I accept in part. The poll is a much bigger problem for Nick and Kirsty. But it is no where near as good for Ieuan as you imply on your blog either. He’s been a party leader for almost a decade and will be offering himself as an alternative First Minister next year.
Cyntaf – “Added to the massive disparity in media coverage afforded to the Westminster parties as opposed to Plaid, and your point seems a bit awry.”
Look, it’s a small point but one which holds true, at least to me. If Ieuan had polled well on this indicator you’d have been spinning it as a massive surge, media disparity of not. I’m not making a big deal of it, just found the Plaid score mediocre, rather than disastrous. The phrase “not achieved particularly strong trust ” is hardly savage is it?
Never before has one of my throw away asides achieved the full glare of a Welsh Ramblings rebuttal though:
http://welshramblings.blogspot.com/2010/03/welsh-public-opinion-ieuan-wyn-jones.html
Worth reading, if you haven’t done so already.
Daran isn’t having a go unnecessarily, its fair game.
Ieuan’s progress does look good when you compare it to how his leadership has been perceived in the past. But obviously, Carwyn is more than twice as popular.
The point that could be explored further is how Nick Bourne is stuck on a 10% approval rate, no better than the Lib Dems.
Daran,
I take your point, personally I find these personal polling questions slightly throw away anyway. No AMs has any real national profile now Rhodri has gone, so Carwyn hangs on Brown’s coat-tails on such a question.
The Lib Dems may have suffered from Cable not being mentioned, who knows?
Knowing Ramblings as I do, he is just a keen follower of Welsh politics, and a big fan of this site.