A twist in the dragon’s tail

Chris Gwyther experiences the Swansea Bounce

ON BEING selected in December to fight Carmarthen East and Dinefwr for Labour, I went into the local newspaper office to discuss how they would be covering the campaign. We started to reminisce about Labour’s general election victory in 1997. As a parliamentary agent then, it felt like the most important election I would ever fight.

On being elected to the Welsh Assembly in 1999 and going straight into the Cabinet – well, that was pretty enormous and life affirming, too. It gave me the opportunity to represent West Wales and develop rural policy, and my contribution as part of that process was the plan for the Assembly’s sustainable development policy, Learning to Live Differently.

After my stint in the cabinet I was elected chair of the economic development committee, made up of some big beasts like Ron Davies, Dafydd Wigley and, of course, Rhodri Morgan, who then covered the economy portfolio as well as being First Minister. Presiding over that testosterone-charged gathering had its more humorous moments (for me, anyway) when “the boys” would be at it like rutting stags, whether we were debating the Barnett formula, inward investment or the dangers of double dipping when counting Objective One outputs in terms of job creation.

Being at the heart of government, and indeed of government scrutiny, has given me experience of what works. It’s good to be passionate about your politics, and that passion is best put to use when it is tempered with realism and respect. Political pop stars like David Cameron just don’t get it. And, in their quest for an Independent Wales and their moment in the UK limelight, wannabe UK pop stars like new Plaid Cymru just don’t get it either.

We are now officially in the thick of it (the campaign that is, not Armando Ianucci’s now seemingly temperate telly series) and the insults are flying thick and fast. But the most important thing is to ask people what they want to ask politicians. Dermot O’Leary was on the box yesterday talking about a young person’s Question Time, to be aired tonight. It will be a fascinating programme, and candidates from all parties will be glued. He said that young people are fed up hearing tittle tattle about politicians and want to get down to the real stuff which affects them and their families and friends. There are a lot of young people in my family and wider acquaintance and our conversations are often passionate and always free from the constraints and pitfalls of deference. They tell me exactly what is on their mind.

They expect a Labour government to do their utmost to look after the planet. Successive governments have done a pretty poor job so far. In Wales, Labour has led the way in a progressive and ambitious response to global warming, and we have backed it up with hard cash and proper, activist policies. We are seeing that same, activist response in UK ministers like Ed Miliband. It makes perfect sense for Wales to be leading the way in green energy production. We have the means and we have the workforce. And we have the passion.

And they expect a Labour government to be a change maker in terms of social policy. While a single child remains below the poverty line, while a single pensioner struggles with bills, while a single job seeker fails to get the training and employment opportunities they deserve, people will be hard on Labour. And so they should be, because there is still so much to do.

They expect Labour to continue securing the economic recovery of our country. And so they should. It is the job of government to face down crises of all kinds, including global financial crises which at first seem insoluble. Passive, fatalistic government at times like these is useless, which is why people are turning away from the Tories and their laissez faire attitude in this critical election lead-in period.

To pay for the stuff we all want, including green policies and economic prosperity through good education, training and jobs, but also social justice policies like fair pensions, an outstanding health service and the eradication of child poverty, people expect a Labour government to get our economy back on track.

What is most heartening for Welsh Labour, though, is the extent to which people in Wales trust Labour to get the economy back on track. In the new BBC/ICM poll when people in Wales were asked who they most trusted to steer Wales towards a strong economic recovery, a whopping 47% said Labour’s Gordon Brown and Carwyn Jones; 24% said the Tories’ David Cameron and Nick Bourne; and a dismal 14% said Plaid Cymru’s Elfyn Llwyd and Ieuan Wyn Jones. The Lib Dems trailed in at 9%.

This poll tells you one reason why I am fighting Carmarthen East and Dinefwr where there is a notional Plaid majority. It’s my passionate belief that Labour can win it and my passionate believe the communities which make up the constituency deserve more than the Plaid pipe dream of an Independent Wales. Strong communities need strong and loyal representation, which is the Labour heritage I have been brought up with. And they deserve someone who will see them through the tough times and stick up for them.

Labour has a proven track record of standing up for Wales in Wales -specific policy areas, such as fighting for and securing Objective One status for West Wales and the Valleys as a major component in the UK’s bid to Europe in 1999. We will continue to stand up for Wales in other key policy areas like the Barnett formula. To a large extent, and certainly in areas like Carmarthenshire, Plaid have stolen Labour’s clothes. They are posing as the party of fairness, when they have also said they would prop up the Tories in a hung parliament. When did the Tories ever play fair with Wales? Do we truly believe they would change this time? I just don’t buy it, and the Welsh electorate won’t either.

Nia Griffith’s off the cuff remark to me last week – “Plaid Cymru? Plaid Cameron” – makes me wonder if Plaid haven’t attempted a boast too far when they promise to be the pivot of a hung parliament. Because – and let’s be respectfully realistic about this – the only way they will get any Plaid-branded goodies for Wales is by voting through George Osborne’s much vaunted emergency budget to slash public sector spending – an action we know will be disproportionately and sickeningly damaging for Wales.

By the summer, we might see the result of Plaid’s Pyrrhic victory laid out for history to record. Ruin. This nightmarish picture tells you another reason to fight this seat for Labour. Because I am determined not to let Plaid Cymru’s selfish, self aggrandising folly lead Wales to disaster in the event of a close vote in the General Election.

So. Days of Our Lives? I should cocoa. The political soap opera moves on, with plot twist following plot twist at breakneck speed. The dialogue is ever changing as politics tries to keep up with the public mood – sometimes when you least expect it. When Gordon Brown made his Welsh Labour conference speech on Saturday he told us: “This last few days I’ve been accused of just about everything apart from killing Archie Mitchell. And I promise you I didn’t lay a finger on him.” Hilarity and relief. Gordon was his normal self, even after the maelstrom of recent political events, non-events and innuendos. Looking more comfortable in his own skin than we have seen him for some time, he is also clearly confident that Labour is delivering the best policies to lead us out of recession and into a fair future. Listening to the reaction in the Brangwyn Hall, Welsh Labour agreed. The atmosphere was electric and, there was a genuine Swansea Bounce in the step of delegates this weekend, even before the Sunday Times poll filtered through late Saturday night. By Sunday morning that fair future for Britain was looking even more secure “Gordon Brown on course to win the election”.

No politician can, nor should they, predict the outcome of an election. The result is dependent upon the power vested in the electorate. But this election will have yet more twists in the tale. One of them might even be a twist in the dragon’s tail.