Political retail therapy

Does Carwyn Jones have a licence to 'spend'?

GEORGE W Bush famously declared that he had “earned political capital” during his 2004 re-election campaign that he intended to spend in office.

He won’t welcome comparison with the former US President, but Carwyn Jones should perhaps reflect on the considerable political capital he has accrued. Unlike Bush in 2000 at least, the Bridgend AM swept the board in his electoral college, winning all three sections and obviating the need for a second round. By any measure, Welsh Labour’s new leader has built up quite a war chest. The question is now how he intends to spend it, and on what.

Both roles he now occupies – First Minister and leader of Welsh Labour – demand some expenditure. In the former, he can face both his coalition partner and the Assembly’s opposition groups as the unrivaled leader of Wales’s biggest party. This should not be underestimated; a weakened leader or one challenged from within his or her own party is a leader more prone to error or reckless gamble. Carwyn Jones faces his opponents with the full weight of his party behind him. He can look forward without having to glance over his shoulder.

But the opportunity to spend his windfall as First Minister is nonetheless narrow. Arguably, Carwyn is limited in the scope of policy innovation he can embark on this side of the next Assembly election. He is tied into the One Wales agreement and all of the commitments this contains, while the scale of the budgetary pressures facing every minister makes innovation over and above that agreement difficult. Politically, too, the spotlight – for the next few months at least – will be facing more towards the General Election than to Cardiff Bay.

The same is not true of his role as Labour leader. Not only does Carwyn enjoy a freer hand, he also faces a pressing task. The task of re-shaping Welsh Labour as a campaigning and policy-making organisation is not only urgent, it is also vital for the long-term.

The reason why it cannot wait is clear, and is less about responding to the repeated, dire and often overstated warnings of the fatal demise of the Labour brand in Wales. Instead, it is about the need for Welsh Labour to take the next steps towards becoming a genuinely post-devolution political organisation.

The leadership race was a good one. Many issues were discussed, and hundreds of party members were involved and re-energised. But the debate about what kind of party and organisation we want Welsh Labour to be never really took off. It never sparked to life in the way the party needed it to. It was a missed opportunity and not one that can be passed up again.

Despite good reasons to be sceptical about the depth of the crisis facing Labour in Wales, there is no doubt that the challenge it faces is serious and immediate. The party has gone backwards at successive elections, the base in local government has been substantially eroded and it faces genuine electoral challenges in all parts of Wales, the scale and nature of which could easily merit another and far lengthier article. These facts haven’t changed simply because Carwyn enjoyed such a comprehensive win. Mandate or not, change is needed.

But this is also about preparing for the future – and in particular a future where the Assembly has full legislative powers. If that happens, the fabric of politics in Wales will change. Welsh Labour needs to be ready for it and not overtaken by it.

What should this change be? What are the priorities to address?

Firstly it has to address a key structural problem: the boom and bust cycle of party funding. This allows investment and organisational capacity to be built up in the run-up to the UK General Election – and then allowed to run down in the years in between. This puts Welsh Labour at a huge financial disadvantage in the build up to Assembly Elections. Contrast this with Plaid’s funding drive to raise £500,000 ahead of 2011. The need for a more independent financial footing for Welsh Labour, without losing the benefits it derives from sharing the resources and expertise of the wider Labour Party should be a top priority. This must involve, although not exclusively, a commitment from trade unions to end the ad hoc funding of the party and to put in place a genuine programme of investment in a programme of party reform.

Secondly, there needs to be an urgent focus placed on 2012. The next local government elections are crucial to the long-term health of Welsh Labour. The hollowing out of the local government base cannot be allowed to go unchecked. A strategy for growth is needed. The trajectory of decline in Welsh Labour’s electoral fortunes can only be reversed with a vibrant, healthy local government constituency. 2012 must be given the status as top-tier elections that they deserve.

The prospect of primary law-making powers drives the need for the third reform. A critical review of the party’s policy making process is needed to assess whether it is capable of meeting the future challenge of greater legislative responsibility. Legislative proposals will be needed. New ideas will be essential. Right now the current partnership in Power process is ill-equipped for this challenge. A radical overhaul may be necessary. One step should be to revitalise the Ideas Wales project. It stalled, after a good start, for various reasons, but the premise remained a good one: a Labour think-tank capable of generating discussion about new ideas and linking the party into the wealth of expertise in Welsh academia.

Fourthly, the party needs a new media revolution. This will mean loosening the tendency towards risk-aversion. Yes, new media comes with risks. Candidates can speak out of turn and devolving control of the campaign medium is a big step. But the relationship between the voters and parties has radically altered and Welsh Labour has fallen behind in how it has responded to it. A modest investment and a more substantial change of culture could easily see Welsh Labour leap to the head of the pack of online campaigners.

And finally the party needs to start prioritising Young Labour and Labour Students. Not enough is being done to bring forward new, young talent. Look here at the example of Plaid Cymru. In selecting candidates like Nerys Evans and Bethan Jenkins they opted for youth and talent over time served. This wasn’t without risk, but the dividend has been a group that looks and acts a bit more like a younger, next generation Wales. There is a greater depth of young talent in Welsh Labour than in any other party. It is time we started tapping into it.

On all sorts of levels Carwyn – thankfully – is no George Bush. So perhaps a better analogy (although for some perhaps no less controversial) is Tony Blair. He understood the need for the party to change. He understood that the world and society had changed. Carwyn could be the first post-devolution, Welsh Labour moderniser.

Imagine the legacy: legislative powers secured, a reshaped, post recession economy, and Welsh Labour revived as the dominant political force in Welsh politics. Time to start spending that political capital.