Swansea bounce
Bubble — By Daran Hill on February 28, 2010 6:30 pm
A solid start for Welsh Labour's new leader
To me, the meeting of Labour which has just happened will be remembered as The One with the Swansea Bounce. Because bounce it certainly did.
Perhaps my view was coloured by last year’s Labour meet in Swansea, which was such a miserable affair that people started stacking up the chairs before it had even begun. Gordon Brown’s rally speech failed to ignite, conference floor was dead, and the only interesting aspects were the fringe meetings at which possible candidates played out the election to come.
Conferences are usually fun but rarely surprise. The last two here in Wales, by Plaid and the Liberal Democrats, were both good events and ticked all the right boxes. There wasn’t much to criticise them for. But at the same time neither left unexpected impressions in terms of the main conference business and the mood of the delegates. They weren’t disappointing, but they didn’t change my perception either. In contrast, Welsh Labour’s weekender delivered a huge surprise to me.
As Betsan has reflected on her blog before conference began, Labour’s eyes are interesting. On Friday evening I saw a steely confidence and determination not to give in. By Saturday evening there was a definite twinkle. When news came through later that evening that the latest YouGov poll had seen the Conservative lead cut to just 2% there were other emotions in the eyes of those I talked too. Enthusiasm. Energy. And bewilderment.
Because the mantra they had been arguing all through the last year when their vote was simply crumbling seemed, on the evidence of the polls and from their own canvass returns, to be coming true. Labour could win again. And, from the recent poll trends, it wasn’t just the Labour Party that said it.
Carwyn Jones certainly set the tone on Saturday morning with an effective speech that had a lot to do, but did it all. The regime change had been a success and was now complete. The new Welsh Labour leader looked confident and assured. He exuded that confidence, and it infected the conference as a whole.
Similarly, for Peter Hain this conference was a vindication of his belief stated time and time again last year that the next General Election is not lost. He repeated that view on every stage he could last year, including the downbeat Swansea conference. And this week he has advanced the same argument on every radio programme and every political discussion show I have seen. From Question Time through to The Politics Show, he has been an ubiquitous presence. But also a consistent one. The comeback king of Welsh politics has long been convinced his party can come back too. This weekend, Welsh Labour showed it believed him.
You can’t fake what I saw in Swansea. They may have less cash and less party workers than 2005, but Welsh Labour has more determination and self-belief than they’ve felt for several years. That doesn’t mean they’re definitely going to win. But it certainly does mean Labour isn’t definitely going to lose.
The General Election has, in the space of 48 hours, just got a lot more interesting.
Tags: 2010 General Election, Carwyn Jones, party conference, Peter Hain, Welsh Labour
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15 Comments
Boing, boing … splat!
Daran,
I would be very keen to get your take on Peter Hain’s view on tactical voting if it is FOR Labour, but refusing to accept that Labour should do the same for other parties. Because that was the message he repeated on every media outlet this weekend…
I didn’t hear Hain’s comments, but isn’t he merely asking Plaid, Lib Dems, Greens to lend Labour their vote to keep the Tories out? Doesn’t really work the other way, does it? In fact, I can’t think of a Con-Plaid or Con-Lib fight in which Labour isn’t potentially in with a shout as well (except possibly Brecon and Radnorshire).
doesn’t make a blind bit of difference if most of Wales turns red, because if most of England turns blue the Tories will still win. Bogus mathematics.
Obviously, that isn’t true. Even under that scenario it could mean the difference between an overall Conservative majority, or a hung Parliament.
Adam,
But surely, given Hain’s rather recent conversion of there being a ‘progressive consensus’ across parties, then he would rather Plaid/Lib Dems beat the tories? Carwyn has also called those thousands of people who vote Plaid/Lib Dems/Greens etc that their vote is a vote for ‘eton’ or something?
http://www.workingclasstory.com/2009/12/labour-toffs.html
Ah yes, because Labour MPs were all flat capped and sharing a Swansea loaf shared between a family of 36 living in a rabbit hutch.
He is asking other parties to forgoe their own 1st choice, but makes no concession that Labour voters, for the good of progressive politics, use their vote tactically for a progressive second choice to realistically beat the tories. Surely an extra Lib Dem/Plaid MP at the expense of a tory is a minus one?
Many people who vote those other parties may actually want a hung parliament, including a deal that their parties’ policy are brought into a Labour/Tory minority government. Or indeed, as according to the non-presidential system we have, might just be voting for some as trivial as a decent local MP representing the local people – of any party or of now party?
Without an Islington set, verbless sentenced parachute in sight.
“But surely, given Hain’s rather recent conversion of there being a ‘progressive consensus’ across parties, then he would rather Plaid/Lib Dems beat the Tories?”
I imagine he would rather Labour beat the Tories. And in just about every seat where either the Libs or Plaid can beat a Tory, Labour can too. It’s not tricky.
“Many people who vote those other parties may actually want a hung parliament”
In that case, they should ignore Peter Hain’s injunction (unless they deduce that a Labour win in their seat will help to achieve that end).
Adam,
So you are intensely relaxed about Carwyn’s private school jibe? You are at ease with this?
“Why would the Tories care when they were sending their children to private schools?”
“‘Vote Plaid Cymru get Eton College’.”
I ask, because I think this totally blows the ‘appeal’ line from Hain out of the Water – how can Plaid voters be appealed to as ‘progressive’, then on the same page be told that they are voting for Eton? Which I hasten to add educated a New Labour MP in Stoke. I assume that Labour has expelled all those MPs who went to private school? Or send their own kids to private school? As this, rather than character and policy, makes them unsuitable for public office.
It annoys me as a parent that such nasty comments are made about parental choices for political ends – particularly with such rank hypocrisy.
And the total inconsistency of Hain asking for tactical voting only if it helps Labour, but pretend it is for the good of progressive politics? It is just nasty, negative and desperate.
Marcus
As I say, this doesn’t cut both ways. According to the Hain analysis, if you are a non-Labour progressive who wants to keep the Tories out, it makes sense for you to lend Labour your vote as only that can keep the Tories out (of government). If you then go and vote for your own party you are lessening the chances of Labour having enough MPs to keep the Tories out. In other words, I interpret is as a challenge to Plaid votes to act on their progressive instincts, by doing all they can to keep a non-progressive party out.
If you are a Labour voter, it does not make sense for you to vote for another party in order to keep the Tories out in any constituency apart from Brecon and Radnorshire.
And Aberconwy.
Doesn’t that have a notional Labour majority?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/aberconwy
Adam.
I still await your sterling defence of the private school jibes…
Marcus – I think Peter’s is a simple message based on identifying a “common enemy”. I said as much on the BBC on Saturday afternoon. It is definitely one way love-bombing (a clumsy phrase which I used then) since Labour does not acknowledge it will work in the other direction.
Adam – voters in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Montgomeryshire and Aberconwy as well as those B&R would surely be better persuaded to vote for other parties than Labour to keep the Conservatives out? As the election gets closer local polling should give a clearer indication of where the Hain Stratagem makes tactical sense to those whose aversion to the Conservatives is stronger than their aversion to Labour or their absolute loyalty to another party.
And I wonder too if the Liberal Democrats might overtake Labour in Monmouth as the second party in this election – just idle speculation with not a lot behind it.
Al – “doesn’t make a blind bit of difference if most of Wales turns red, because if most of England turns blue the Tories will still win. Bogus mathematics.”
Utter nonsense. There are more swing seats in Wales this year than at any previous General Election since the first quarter of the twentieth century. With the polls pointing to a hung Parliament, how can this be the case? And if your logic stacks up then what on earth is the point of voting Plaid?
“Adam – voters in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Montgomeryshire and Aberconwy as well as those B&R would surely be better persuaded to vote for other parties than Labour to keep the Conservatives out? As the election gets closer local polling should give a clearer indication of where the Hain Stratagem makes tactical sense to those whose aversion to the Conservatives is stronger than their aversion to Labour or their absolute loyalty to another party.”
Dwyfor Meirionnydd’s a safe Plaid seat – I don’t suppose tactical Labour voting makes a difference. Aberconwy has a notional Labour majority. Montgomeryshire – granted.
Marcus – you’ve decided to change tack. What makes you think I feel inclined to do the same?
Adam – “Aberconwy has a notional Labour majority.” It’s a debatable one based on the premise of the Hain Stratagem. The fight in the last Assembly election and in last year’s European election was very clearly between the Conservatives and Plaid. Local polling there will probably have an impact during the election.