Life begins at forty

And so it begins once more...

The motion which has been tabled reads:
To propose that the National Assembly for Wales:
resolves, in accordance with section 104(1) of the Government of Wales Act 2006, that a recommendation should be made to her Majesty in Council to make an Order in Council under section 103(1) of the Act.

Explaining what exactly this means in terms of stages thereafter would need another blog post, and anyway top blogger Betsan Powys has got there first.

To pass, the motion will need forty Assembly Members voting in favour (not the simple majority required from the House of Commons further down the process) and whether it will reach this target is a matter of some debate. The few blogs written on the issue today – and there have been surprisingly few so far – focus on the thorny issue of reaching forty.

This number is more problematic than once anticipated. Firstly, Mohammad Asghar AM has left Plaid and this brings the combined strength of Labour and Plaid on the floor of the Assembly below forty out of sixty, especially since the person in the chair will not have a vote(presumably Plaid’s Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM as Presiding Officer). Secondly, several Labour AMs are away from the Assembly on extended sickness absence, for entirely legitimate reasons, and are unlikely to be present for the vote. And, because the Government of Wales Act 2006 specifies 40 votes in favour rather than two thirds of those voting, this is why the One Wales Government needs to negotiate with the opposition parties to make sure the motion passes.

But, I hear you cry, aren’t the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats supportive of a referendum? Hasn’t Nick Bourne led from the front on this issue, and reshaped his party in the Assembly accordingly? Wasn’t it Kirsty Williams who made mincemeat of Rhodri Morgan last November when it looked like he was ruling out an Autumn 2010 referendum?

The rub lies in the question of timing. Neither the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats favour holding the referendum next May on the same day as the Assembly election. And you can totally understand that. Even Plaid’s Parliamentary leader Elfyn Llwyd MP thinks it’s a bad idea and would be “pretty bloody confusing.” (And I thought it was just Labour AMs and MPs who were supposed to have differing views on the referendum…)

Both Assembly opposition parties are arguing they will not support the trigger vote unless they have an explicit undertaking that next May is ruled out – but that promise is not forthcoming from WAG. There were rumours this morning that the Lib Dems were softening their line, but a recent update to Betsan Powys’ blog puts it differently:

The Liberal Democrats insist they did NOT brief that they will vote to support the trigger motion next week unless they get a reassurance that a referendum would not be held on the same day as the Assembly election. Reports that they did, they say, are wrong.

The party line? The group will abstain unless Labour and Plaid “do their best to rule out … no, do rule out” a referendum that coincides with the Assembly election.

So, as Betsan goes on to suggest, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats find themselves in a bit of a corner. Let me be frank: I share their judgement that a May 2011 referendum would be a bad move. It would be very dangerous for them at the ballot box. It would also be exceptionally difficult for Labour too. And that’s why I think it will never happen on that date.

Which makes the current bargaining position of the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives all the more difficult. Those of us within this bubble may understand it, but those outside will not. If Kirsty Williams and Nick Bourne lead their groups into sitting on their hands next Tuesday and the trigger vote falls, then they will not find it easy to explain that away in terms that the pro-devolution electorate will understand. And if the Lib Dems move to support the motion – and like Vaughan Roderick, I can’t believe that with their tradition on this issue they will not – then that would leave the Conservatives in a very lonely place indeed. “Wales against the Tories” – I can hear the echoes of 1997 ringing in my ears already.

It’s time to put distrust aside and for AMs from all parties to vote with conviction on February 9th. And vote in the affirmative. It’s time to vote Yes for Wales.