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It couldn't, could it?

NOT many political geeks can have missed the gradual narrowing of the polls in recent weeks. The most recent (ComRes for The Independent) has the Conservatives 7 points ahead of Labour, down from 17 in early December, YouGov shows a smaller shift, from 13% to 9% over that period, while Ipsos MORI has gone from 17% to 8%. The UPPR average now shows a 9% lead for the Conservatives. On a uniform swing – a fairly blunt assumption, admittedly – that might not be enough to hand the Tories an overall, let alone a working majority.

It’s all good fun, and makes the forthcoming General Election a more interesting proposition, almost regardless of your political affiliation. But under the bonnet, there are others reasons to believe we may not see a ’79 or ’97-style landslide. David Cameron’s personal standing is, as you might expect, way ahead according to Ipsos MORI, with the Conservative Leader’s net satisfaction rating at +3% compared to Brown’s -26%. But John Major’s rating at this point in 1997 was -44% and Blair’s was 22% – a far more conclusive gap. Similarly, while approval ratings for Brown’s administration languish at -42% they look positively rosy compared to John Major’s -67%.

Make no mistake, this is still a dreadful picture for Labour, putting it on course for a drubbing. But another factor suggests that the trend may be favourable to the governing party. Economic optimism is now the highest it has been since immediately after Blair’s landslide, and has sharply increased in the past few months. The contrast here is with the slump of the early 90s, where people remained resolutely pessimistic for years after the recession ended. Optimism eventually took hold in the run up to ’97, but not by as much and not in as sustained a fashion. This is only a measure of whether people expect the economy to improve, so given the depths of recession experienced in the past 18 months, you might reasonably conclude that the only way is up. But it may also be a measure of the highly unusual way in which employment has led recovery rather than following it. Whatever the case, it may yet serve as a backdrop against which Conservative warnings over the size of the deficit, and the threat to the UK’s international credit rating appear less credible, while Brown’s narrative of action to end the recession is taken rather more seriously. Brown and Labour are now in a position where they can exude optimism, while Cam and co. have to keep on with a “broken Britain” message. We know that, on balance, voters prefer hope to fear.

None of it spells a turnaround in the longer-term trend, namely a more popular Conservative Party led by a more liked and trusted leader. The polls could easily see-saw apart again. A stronger recovery might, ironically, convince people they can afford to risk a change of government, and a closer race could galvanise those who want such an outcome. But after a prolonged period in which a Tory victory seemed not just likely but inevitable, it may be that the game is now afoot.