What are the facts about elderly incomers?
Bubble — By Adam Higgitt on January 6, 2010 12:14 am
And nearly all of them spent their working lives in Wales
HOW long can you have a discussion about Welsh prosperity, or the lack thereof, without someone attributing at least some of it to the deleterious effect of elderly incomers from England? Not very long, in my experience. Accordingly, Plaid’s chief economic brain Eurfyl ap Gwilym has resurrected the issue again. He told Tuesday’s The Western Mail:
The first issue is that we have a relatively low proportion of our population that is of working age. That’s because we have net emigration of working people from Wales at the same time as having lots of people coming home from elsewhere to retire as well as people from England moving here for their retirement. They do so because many parts of Wales are attractive physically, because they find the people here friendly, and because of lower house prices. The higher proportion of retired people accounts for about 6% of the 25% or so gap with the rest of the UK.
It’s a intuitive enough idea, isn’t it? People in search of work being forced to move to England, with their places taken by old folk looking for a tidy view in their dotage. Except the numbers don’t bear it out. In fact, they suggest the opposite; from the years 1999-2004 (the only years for which data are available) Wales experienced a net migration of working age people (16-64) of around 5,800 per annum. During that same period, there was also a net annual migration of retired people – but of around only 1,000. So, in fact we have net migration of working age people into Wales, and few people from England moving to Wales for their retirement.
Two other things stand out. Within the working age group, there is a net emigration among 16-24 year olds of around 1,000 per annum, but this is more than compensated by net migration from the 25-44s and 45-64s, with the latter accounting for the lion’s share. Since these two groups have higher average earnings, it is likely that Wales is effectively trading low-income workers and students for higher earners. That’s probably good, not bad, for Wales’s GVA.
Secondly, the overall numbers are small compared to the total population. The turnover (inflow plus outflow as a percentage of the size of the population) of pensioners during this time was just 1.5%. In other words, the vast majority of Wales’s older population have been here during their working lives, and are not moving.
Dr ap Gwilym may have a point about the effect on GVA of a relatively older population. The trouble is that very little of this section of the population, on a net basis, are English imports. Nor is Wales a net exporter of working age people.
Tags: Fact Check
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2 Comments
An interesting and thought provoking piece.
The idea of being “over run” by a grey tide is one which can arguably be justified in rural communities in the West, where of course most of the national worries arise. The retirement frenzy of the runaway housing market in the 80s, coupled with the “good life” fashion led to a lot of retired incomers. Whether the influx of the 00′s was as strong or as damaging is difficult to gauge. I know that in villages like Myddfai, it’s difficult to find a Welsh speaker (and that was before it got the added prestige of good neighbours…), with the English speakers you meet all retired.
But the dangers of “knowing” one situation is clear to see in your stats. Sweeping assumptions based on one area are not the way to write national, or even local policies.
One point about GVA, I wonder how many of your “Lions share” – the 45-64s – bring their high earnings with them? How many have traded in the job for something much easier, while making up the difference from the house price differential?
Hi Iestyn
As you imply, your findings and those of the statisticians are not necessarily at odds, especially if the distribution of elderly incomers is highly skewed toward the areas you suggest. But it is interesting that this influx was relatively limited even during the housing boom of the early to mid noughties. I suspect that in a great many places in rural Wales during this period there was a very low demand for housing, either from outsiders or locals. But these places weren’t the pretty villages of lore.
And yes, I don’t know about the earning potential of those who did emigrate. They may have been downshifters in the way you suggest. All we really know is that this group in general tend to earn more than 16-24 year olds.
Best
Adam