Rhodri Morgan should not depart his Cabinet alone
Like a Roman Emperor, our next First Minister needs to be prepared to make some hard decisions from the start of their reign
THE FORGOTTEN post-war Labour MP and diarist Kenneth Younger coined a telling phrase which described the state of the Attlee Government at the end of its life in 1950-1. He wrote that, apart from Nye Bevan, “all the other senior people are extinct volcanoes, or else were never volcanoes at all”.
Such a clever analysis reflects a state of play in which a Government which had put hundreds of Acts on the statute book between 1945 and 1950 but had simply burnt itself out, both physically and legislatively. By the end of 1951, Labour was out of energy and out of power, and did not return to office for another 13 years. The same is arguably true of the end of the Conservative administration in 1997. Critics of the current Labour UK administration also argue it seems to have lost its way and its force.
One thing is definitely true: in the UK we are not used to long periods of continuous government by the same party. It has been remarked in several places that if Labour loses next year’s General Election, then the Leader of Welsh Labour will be the most senior leader of Labour in the UK. Fewer people have remarked that, should that happen, by May 2010 Labour in Wales will be the longest serving administration, Labour or otherwise, in the UK.
Surely the odds must still be on Labour being at least part of the next Welsh Assembly Government too, come May 2011? (And please don’t get too hung up on that proposition in any comments you leave – there’s a different narrative being developed here.) Factor in the chances of the SNP holding on to power in Scotland at the same time and the situation becomes even more extreme. Labour in Wales then looks like the great political survivor, being part of four continuous administrations. Only the Thatcher-Major administrations rivalled that for longevity.
It is therefore entirely proper that the current contest in Welsh Labour is becoming more of a battle of ideas. All the candidates are talking about the opportunity to renew not just Welsh Labour as a party but also their presence in and vision for government. If we accept Labour is more likely than not to be part of a post-2011 administration, it is critical that Labour uses the next two months to reshape itself. But, perversely, it cannot just be about ideas. Or just about changing a leader.
Reshaping means a change of other faces, too. The current Cabinet of the Welsh Assembly Cabinet has worked together well for a long time. In political terms it is actually a very long time. Of the Labour Cabinet Ministers, only Brian Gibbons has not served round the big table in all three Assemblies, joining in 2005. Edwina Hart, Andrew Davies and Jane Hutt have all been Cabinet Ministers since May 1999; with Carwyn Jones and Jane Davidson joining them in 2000. Such survival skills are remarkable and laudable.
Cabinet careers of such longevity are not commonplace in other parts of the UK. Looking at the current UK Cabinet, for example, of the 23 full members only three have served as continuous members since the 1999-2000 period. (For your next pub quiz these are Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Jack Straw, all of whom have been there since 1997, while Peter Mandelson has come in and out since first being appointed in 1998). In Scotland, the SNP is of course now in power but when Labour ruled the roost it could hardly have been said to have been a stable period, with three different First Ministers in the first eight years and, more particularly, what seemed too often like a revolving door for ministerial appointments. In short, it was the extreme opposite of the situation of continuation apparent here in Wales.
In recent days political commentators have reflected on the lack of room for manoeuvre facing some of the Labour leadership candidates should they become First Minister. The erudite and ever-mischievous Vaughan Roderick wrote the other weekend that should Carwyn win the election that his hands would be quite tied in terms of whom he appoints to the Labour places in Cabinet, not least because he currently sits there as Counsel General and not as a traditional Minister. Thus Rhodri’s departure would not even provide him with a single empty seat. The article goes on to argue why it would be difficult for him to remove any of his current colleagues, but also makes the point that he would need in some way to reward his key supporters if he won.
The Plaid Cymru blogger Guerrilla Welsh-fare took it further – but not much further. The argument is extended to look briefly at who Huw Lewis or Edwina Hart might appoint. It takes a swipe at some women politicians from working class backgrounds who might be appointed to the Huw Cabinet – without even thinking that perhaps Huw’s supporters aren’t necessarily considering government posts – but doesn’t add much. Which is a shame, because top Welsh blogger GWF can sometimes offer real insight.
The argument can be extended relatively easily. It is certainly theoretically possible that if Carwyn wins, as Vaughan explains, no new blood would enter Cabinet. If Edwina triumphs then the same could also be true, if she made Carwyn a full departmental Minister. And a Huw Cabinet could – at least in theory, too – look pretty much like the one that Rhodri left if he played a similar tactic. All three could play safe.
There will undoubtedly be a variety of factors at play for the new First Minister when they appoint their ministers. Rewarding allies, accepting resignations, recognising and including their opponents, balancing groupings, encouraging talent, but also providing a degree of stability by making sure that some experienced hands continue.
There will also be other dynamics at play. Not every person is suited to every job, of course, but don’t also assume that the portfolios will remain intact. Rhodri Morgan didn’t just change some of the Cabinet members he inherited from Alun Michael in 2000, he also changed their roles and responsibilities. The new leader will probably undertake a similar functional change. And there is also the rogue card of Plaid Cymru ministers changing, though perhaps just in the jobs they do, to accommodate other alterations.
But next to all these factors is the need to renew not just the face of the leader. Labour must refresh at several levels in 2010 if it is to regain political ground. That is not to suggest the Labour Party needs a Night of the Long Knives in December to follow a leadership election that is already pointed and a little bloody. But rather it cannot be just one face who departs.
This may have been a risky article for a lobbyist who wants to work in this town in two months time to write, but I stand by my argument. Rhodri Morgan has left his Cabinet pretty much alone for the best part of a decade. But when he leaves, for the good of renewing Labour he cannot depart his Cabinet alone.
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flickr
The counter argument to this, is who else is there amongst Labour AMs who could be promoted……the cupboard is not exactly overflowing with talent!!!!
I think you are saying what many are thinking. The cabinet needs to be changed. One of the failings of the Morgan reign has been lack of succession planning. No new talent has had a chance to come through. Some around the table are also not standing next time around, so some forward plans would be a must, I would have thought. It may also be time to look at how the next layer has performed and needs some raking out.
What about advisers? They have been in place for a long while too and that has left it difficult for new ideas and innovative policy to get through. It will be interesting to see where this goes – or not.
what is the status of the Plaid ministers – presumably they are appointed by Ieuan Wyn Jones and not Labour. Can Labour dictate which portfolios they have or is there an agreement that they have those specific posts, regardless of who they put up?
Jane Davidson and Brian Gibbons will probably leave the Cabinet, being that they’re standing down as AMs in 2011.
“what is the status of the Plaid ministers – presumably they are appointed by Ieuan Wyn Jones and not Labour. Can Labour dictate which portfolios they have or is there an agreement that they have those specific posts, regardless of who they put up?”
The Government of Wales Act states this: S48(1) The First Minister may, with the approval of Her Majesty, appoint Welsh Ministers from among the Assembly members.
The One Wales agreement says: “The initial structure of portfolios and their allocation between the parties will be agreed between the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister. Within this context, the First Minister will, with the approval of the Queen, formally appoint Ministers, including Plaid Cymru members nominated for appointment by the Deputy First Minister.”
“Any changes to the structure of portfolios or their allocation between the parties during the lifetime of the Agreement will be agreed between the First Minister and Deputy First Minister.”
It also says: “The First Minister will be responsible to the Assembly for all aspect of policies and retains ultimate responsibility for all policies.”
“It takes a swipe at some women politicians from working class backgrounds who might be appointed to the Huw Cabinet ”
Hang on here Daran. Think before you rant. What the hell does it have to do with it being women or working class? I had a go because I don’t think, and I doubt many others do that Huw’s supporters could handle a ministerial portfolio, not because they are working class and certainly not because they are women. Why you are trying to insinuate otherwise is beyond me and shows a real lack of class if I may say so.
Che – Sorry if I over stepped the mark. Have just heard that line from few quarters where the motivation is clear.
Jack – thanks for the helpful comment re the position of Plaid Ministers in the coalition.
Fair enough Daran however I think you do me a disservice to simply assume that it was my motivation, where there is no evidence to suggest it and it simply is not true. Worst still to put on this blog publicly without any consideration that it is not my view.
For the record I am from a working class background and have no preference what sex ministers are. I think appointments should be based on ability. That you would take someone else’s prejudice and attach it to me does me and the blogsphere a disservice and cheapens the view that this is an independent blog. Clearly in this matter you are regurgitating someone else’s line with a blanket approach. I hope you recognise where you are wrong to do so.
“Che” – think you protest too much.
There’s a nasty misogyny running through many of your posts, and the real bile is often aimed at working class women. Now that may be because all the working class women in the Assembly are thick useless, or it could be because you just think they are.
Frankly, as an anonymous blogger with a clear agenda and an obvious dislike of most female, non-Plaid politicians, I’m not sure you have the right to start bandying accusations about. Daran commented on something – which many other people already have – namely, your obvious beef with women. To try and question the impartiality of this site as means of diverting attention away from your obvious prejudice is particularly pathetic.
Daran – you shouldn’t apologise for what you said – “Che” lies, muckspreads and misrepresents what he views as the opposition on a daily basis, all from a comfortable position of anonymity. Just take a look back through some of his hateful attacks on Kirsty Williams over the past year or so. The guy is a bully and a coward. Let him stick to his slander on his site, you should stick to the commentary on yours.
lol. Bless Sandra. I am a lot harder to rile than that.
I was annoyed at Daran because I assumed, wrongly it has turned out, that he would have the intelligence and independence of mind to separate the views of others and what was actually said when making conclusions. I guess that didn’t fit the narrative of the post he was going for.
As for your comment. I shall take it as a complement that I have suitably exposed how bad a job Kirsty Williams is doing.
Personally, I had high hopes for Kirsty, and am very surprised at how little impact she had had. But it could have been worse – it could have been Lembit!!
Sandra, there are excellent working class women AMs in the Assembly including many from the Labour ranks, but Huw Lewis’ backers are surely not amongst them. There are working class women of exceptional ability in the cabinet and the back benches and we should be proud of that, but we shouldn’t apologise for ineffective and often incapable elected members.
Only just caught up with this. Can’t get over seeing one of Wales’s biggest bullies (who like most bullies is also a coward) complaining that his character has been attacked. Hilarious.
Don’t know why you apologised Daran. Anonymous smear merchants like “Che” should be the ones apologising for all the people they whose characters they regularly smear.
“I was annoyed at Daran because I assumed, wrongly it has turned out, that he would have the intelligence and independence of mind to separate the views of others and what was actually said when making conclusions. I guess that didn’t fit the narrative of the post he was going for. ”
Che – As I wrote, I over-stepped the mark. I was reacting to an undercurrent that has been around for years which particularly pokes at some women in the Assembly. It is not just a product of the blogosphere either. The thrust of what I was trying to say, albeit clumsily as it turns out, was that this post added little to an important debate in relation to Huw’s Cabinet-making potential:
http://guerrilla-welsh-fare.blogspot.com/2009/10/post-leadership-contest-cabinet.html
It has little to do with narrative. Indeed, looking back at my article I think drawing in the views of bloggers detracted rather than added to the central narrative which I was trying to convey. Certainly, one relatively throwaway line has become the key feature of a column which I had hoped was trying to talk about so much more. I understand how that has happened, and will try and be more careful in future.
Both Guerrilla Welsh-Fare and Welsh Ramblings have both blogged on this topic now. If either were really interested in exposing bad Assembly Members they would highlight the deadwood in Plaid’s ranks as well. But neither are. They are both blogs run by Assembly Members Support Staff, who are part of Plaid’s overall press and media strategy. They write what they are told to write and what they are told to write is nearly always a smear on Plaid’s opponents. It amazes me that Martin Shipman ignore what is an obvious attempt to astro-turf the blogosphere. Its an open secret around the Bay who these people are.
Daran you run a good site that contributes more to Welsh political debate in a day than these party stooges have ever done. Don’t let them bully you like they do everyone else.
Rhys
I’ve let the above comment through, but I won’t be allowing further such remarks from anyone. It should be obvious to anyone reading Daran’s piece that it was a serious attempt to analyse what a post-Rhodri Cabinet should look like. The single line about an anonymous blogger’s attitude was not the point of the piece, and shouldn’t dominate the discussion.
We do appreciate your supportive comments about WH, and you’re free to continue to contribute. But Daran has now accounted for this remark and it’s time to draw stumps on the whole thing. The who’s who of the anonymous Welsh blogosphere is about the most boring subject I can think of.
Well Penddau I think Carwyn’s campaign manager will want to be promoted for starters. There is also an argument for other supports like Alun Davies to be given a crack with a deputy position – whether you love him or loathe him, I think Alun has proved he is capable. Do you promote John Griffiths?
I think Jack maybe right in that if Carwyn wins, Brian and Jane may have to take one for the team along with Gwenda. I think Welsh Labour does need a shake up and a new look and this is a perfect time and give the new office holders a few weeks to get to grips with their briefs.
Plaid factor is a bit more problematic; Elin is doing a good job; Alun Ffred we will skirt over; IWJ well whether he’s doing a good job or not, its an area I think Labour wouldn’t want to touch even with asbestos reinforced oven gloves!