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Carwyn Jones has led this campaign - and on current form he will lead Wales

CARWYN JONES entered this Labour leadership race as the bookies favourite. But he also began his campaign with a clear plan of action based around a number of perception issues which, like the campaigns of his fellow candidates Huw Lewis and Edwina Hart, needed to be addressed head on. With Huw, as we have discussed, it was very much a question of credibility. With Edwina it was about turning her strong personality traits into an advantage by squarely basing her campaign on them.

With Carwyn Jones it was about challenging whispered assumptions. In as much as Huw has burst myths over the past six weeks, so has the front-runner. Let’s take the most often whispered one first: that Carwyn Jones is lazy. Certainly his personality is less frenetic and less highly charged than his competitors, but that does not equate to laziness. It is, say his team, part of the barrister’s style and training, as well as a mark of his personality. Carwyn does not rush headlong into decisions, they say, and that is a necessary strength of a would-be First Minister. He has demonstrated this far-sightedness in this campaign too: his campaign has had a grid of messages, clear staging posts, and an endgame. He has kept to it and it is delivering for him.

The last thing Welsh Labour needs now is a lazy leader. Every active Labour politician in Wales knows this. To appoint someone without the appetite and energy to lead would be electoral suicide. Surely the range of endorsements Carwyn has received from amongst AMs, MPs and even Welsh Labour’s only MEP are the clearest repudiation of this charge. They would not back a candidate who was uninterested or incapable of doing the job. This has been an implicit campaign message.

Tied into this charge of inactivity, is the belief that Carwyn lacks the passion and zeal for politics of his opponents and has nothing to say. His manifesto may have been later coming than the other two, but when it came it was a substantial and rich document. Perhaps it was more conventionally structured than the other two, but it was certainly less conventionally presented. The week long run up to its launch with themed daily releases was a masterstroke and worked well. By Wednesday that week it was clear that the charge Carwyn had no policies was an empty one; by Thursday I was getting RSI in summarising the latest batch of ideas; and by Friday I was groaning when another detailed release came through. In the space of a week – and to my mind it was Carwyn’s best campaigning week – he had burst another myth.

Also entwined into this is the view that somehow Carwyn’s natural communication ability and skilled media presence somehow masks other deficiencies. Betsan Powys popped this balloon rather elegantly on her blog on the morning after the televised Dragon’s Eye debate: “An enterprising comparison from one of those who was there. It’s not fair to condemn Carwyn Jones for years for being lazy, then condemn him equally for being too assured, he said. Not fair. He’s stand-out in this sort of public forum and a First Minister needs to give assured performances. Condemning him on both counts makes him the Danyl Johnson of the Labour leadership race.” She presents a persuasive argument which strikes a chord, even if I cannot only guess who “Danyl” might be. (Incidentally, on the strength of her post I have forgiven her for pinching the boxing metaphor from my earlier analysis session on Good Morning Wales and using it online.)

Carwyn Jones' campaign website

Another particular strength of the Carwyn campaign has been the way he has dealt with the issue of devolution. Before this campaign it was implied he was some sort of “closet nat” (not a phrase which appeals to me, but it was muttered often enough). From week two of the contest it has been clear that he is now positioned in the pragmatic centre of Labour on making devolution work. His defence of existing LCO system may have jarred with some who would have wanted him to go further in embracing change, but by holding his ground Carwyn has repudiated the charge that he sides with Plaid on some grand secret plan. For certain, Carwyn has not got in any way hung up on the question of Wales and its borders. The support of so many MPs and north east Wales politicians would not have come so fully to any candidate that did. Surely there cannot be a single Labour watcher or voter who buys the “closet nat” line now? Another misconception disposed of.

But it has not all been about over-turning negatives. The campaign has also been, almost ruthlessly at times, focused on winning votes in all three sections of the electoral college. They have stressed their lack of complacency and have worked as hard as the other two teams despite starting from a higher base of support. Every skirmish has been viewed in terms of how it can show appeal and how it can contribute to the electoral college. Carwyn was, as his campaign team kept reminding me, the only one of the three candidates who came either first or second in every single Constituency Labour Party endorsement contest. “He’s the one with Wales-wide appeal” they have said from the start, and Carwyn emphasised this aspect too in his first answer on Dragon’s Eye. At no point has he ever had to rebut a charge that he does not have support in all parts of Wales. That has never been a misconception he has had to deal with. Even the hiccup when he failed to get more AMs than Edwina Hart was soon rebutted when the slab of MPs were unveiled.

In short, for the last six weeks Carwyn Jones has not really put a foot wrong. The battles have mainly been of his team’s choosing. When things have got a bit provocative or challenging, it has been done on his terms.

Carwyn started as the front-runner in this campaign and with less than two week to go, he remains in that position. He has led the tone and the media agenda much of the time too. He has led the bookies money throughout. And on this form in less than a month he will lead Wales.