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ITV WALES this evening published a poll on Wales This Week which shed light who ordinary voters and Labour voters want to see as the next Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister of Wales. Ordinary voters were asked who they wanted to see as First Minister and divided 25% to Carwyn Jones; 14% to Edwina Hart; and 10% for Huw Lewis. Which leaves 51% with no opinion despite the length and breadth of this election campaign. Amongst Labour voters the ballot is the same in terms of overall sequence, though Edwina narrows the gap a bit on Carwyn (according to Denis Balsom on the programme – I do not have the precise figures to hand). You can watch the whole programme here. But what did the campaign teams make of it?

Carwyn Jones’ campaign manager, Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews, welcomed the results as in synch with the campaign’s findings: “Our telephone canvassing, the bookies and the opinion polls all agree – the people want Carwyn. But the only poll that matters has yet to close. We will be working hard for every vote right up until the close of poll.”

A spokesperson for Lewis 4 Labour, said, “Over the last few weeks we’ve seen a number of polls results, internal and external which all camps could point to as encouraging, or dismiss out of hand! The one we have been working towards, contacting thousands of members right across Wales, is due out on December 1st. The enormous amount of detailed fieldwork we have done so far suggests things are looking good.”

Responding to the poll findings, Edwina Hart’s campaign pressed home their message too: “This is an interesting poll of Labour voting intentions. However, it is not a poll of the Labour Party Member Electoral College that we are campaigning for. With this one poll identifying 39% undecided there is clearly everything still left to play for, suggesting it will go right down to the wire.

“We identified from the outset that 2nd preference votes will be key in a three candidate race. Clearly it is still not too late for members to vote by post or online by 5pm on Thursday. They can still make a difference.”

As all three say, the ballot closes later this week and all three teams are still campaigning hard for every vote – and every transfer because it’s not a first past the post contest. If one team doesn’t make 50% + 1 on the first ballot, then the lowest scoring of the three will be eliminated and their votes transferred to the other two candidates (if they transfer anywhere).

Although Carwyn Jones still seems to be ahead by some way (a point made last weekend) and which is reinforced by this poll today, will it be by enough to see him win an outright majority on the first ballot? On these figures, probably not. It’s been a hard fought contest – and one in which it looks like somebody will get eliminated rather than one candidate sweeping the board. Nobody is predicting a win for anyone on the first ballot.

But once more Team Carwyn can sleep easy this evening: he is still, by some way, the one to beat.