How nice, how polite, how very forgettable
HOW nice at last that the finishing post is almost overrun.
Yes, the campaign’s been long, and I can’t pretend that I’ve been all that caught up in it, owing mainly to its lengths and to a major change in personal circumstances. The effect of this has been twofold – learning the ropes of a new job, and being far more interested in my own party’s business than in Labour’s affairs.
But what marks this contest out, to my mind, has been the maturity with which it has been fought. All kinds of plots and maneuvering have been speculated upon, predominantly from outside the party. But none of it has stuck, mainly because it has been wrong. All of the three candidates deserve to give themselves a pat on the back tomorrow evening, regardless of whether they have won or not.
If you believe that a contest is won by the team (or candidate) that becomes stronger the longer it goes on, then Carwyn has certainly grown in stature, and perhaps enough to slip into those big boots of Rhodri’s that I wrote about yesterday. He has come across as a unifier, a steady hand, business as usual. That is more likely to appeal to the man or woman in the street, particularly in this time, although I have to say that I’m still not sure what marks him out as something different. And will his straight bat be enough for Labour’s rank-and-file?
Huw is sometimes described as his party’s Marmite candidate. He has a reputation for making foes. I wouldn’t know about that, but he was a major force in the Labour-Plaid Valleys conflict of the past decade – the political equivalent of the Medallin wars, people whacked in the street, all that caper. What he has demonstrated this time round is that he is pretty adept as a political thinker. If he doesn’t win, he should have a major input into his party’s policy. His thoughts on housing provided his best moment for me, and his positioning alongside Jon Cruddas (calling it an alliance might be stretching it) may stand him in good stead following the General Election. We’re getting to the stage where most of us can discern between a good Parliamentarian and a decent Assembly-err-tarian(?) Who knows? Maybe another future for Huw lies down the M4.
But the real revelation has been Edwina. She had a reputation lower than shark’s pooh on a diver’s boot among journalists. I can remember her torpedoing the female AMs-only picture in those heady days of 1999 when the Siambr featured an equal number of women as men. It was an incredibly positive story, and her churlishness at the time earned her a lot of enemies in the press. But what has become apparent in this election is that she does enjoy a wide base of support. Previously, us cynical hacks had put it down to a sizeable, and easily manipulated beer-and-sandwiches brigade in Swansea. But when behemoths like Paul Murphy become convinced by her, then perhaps she was worth a look.
Another interesting development with Edwina: as time has worn on, those people that have done business with her (in her preferred manner, often in one-to-ones and always behind closed doors) began to emerge to sing her praises. Rather than grow weary of her, interest in the health minister has grown. Maybe it’s an enigma thing, but this bit of press exposure has done her no harm at all.
All-in-all, and given some of the handbags-at-dawn that previous succession battles have more closely resembled, this has been more like a cup of tea and cucumber sandwiches with the vicar. Too early to say if this is the start of something new in Welsh politics, and it could all be up in smoke in days if the party decides to follow Hain and not so much renege as try and faff its way out of the core promise on further powers that it made to Plaid when the two entered coalition.
Therein lies the rub, I suppose. No end of decorum may have made this easier on the eye than the teenage spats of yesteryear, but the history books will remember the new Labour leader for his or her deeds in office, not the campaign they fought.
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Edwina Hart indulged in disgraceful attacks on Welsh-medium education in her manifesto, and in needless belittlement of the Welsh-speaking community during the campaign itself. Why? Was she playing to the anti-Welsh Labour gallery? I can think of no reason why she should get away with it. It was shameful and reprehensible behaviour. In the Welsh-speaking community, I’m afraid that she came across as something of a bigot.
First of all congratulatiions on the coverage. Without Wales Home and the internet in general as a Guardian reader my knowledge of the Leadership election would have been limited to a couple of poorly produced leaflets. The 51% in the You Gov opinion poll who expressed no opinion on who should be Leader of the Labour group in the Assembly shows how difficult it is to get any message across in part of the UK where the regional media has so little influence. A lesson perhaps for those who are gung ho for a referendum as soon as possible ?
On the contest itself . It certainly hasn’t harmed the Labout Party. It was conducted in a fairly civilised manner with the only personal attacks being made on Edwina. All the candidates performed well over the 8 weeks and enhanced their reputations. Carwyn was solid as usual and showed all the skills needed to succeed in modern politics. Edwina Hart’s real personality came across. For many her ability to handle the media was a revelation. She will have benefited immensely from the last 8 weeks and has emerged as a far more rounded politician than many believed. She really silenced some of the harsh criticisms that were made of her personality at the beginning of the campaign. Of the three Huw Lewis is the one who has really used the contest to make his mark for the future. At the start of the contest a fairly senior Labour councillor asked me ‘Who was Huw Lewis?’ No one in the Labour Party is now posing that question. Huw from the word go has shown that the Labour Party like all democratic socialist parties should not be afraid of debate and discussion. Too often in the past 15 years it has felt that the party has developed the unity of the graveyard. Huw should definitely be included in any future cabinet possibly in a beefed up Social Justice and Public Service Delivery role.
On the ideas front as I’ve said above it was interesting to see ideas for the first time in years. But unlike Daran I will wait until I see the delivery before getting too excited. It is easy to promise things in the heat of battle. Much harder to deliver in the cold light of day when promises have to be costed. If it was hard to get Welsh education up to the level of England in the days of plenty then how much harder will it be in the Age of Austerity which is just about to dawn on the public sector?
The Leadership election should also tell us something about the state of the Labour Party in Wales. The interesting sections of the Electoral college will be the TU and membership sections. Not just in who they voted for but how many actually took part in the ballot at all. In too many parts of Wales as all three candidates recognise the party is a shell with an aging membership. It has often ceased to exist as a campaigning organisation and even finds difficulty in getting candidates to stand in local elections. The snap shot the election figures will tell us about the Labour Party should be interesting.
No one should envy the task in front of any new Leader. Rhodri had it easy. The new Leader will have to operate in a very different environment. The first problem will obviously be the timing of the referendum and what side of the argument the new Leader comes down on. I use the word ‘argument ‘ because the Labour Party members haven’t elected a Leader for the Labour Party in Wales. We have elected a Leader for the Assembly group. There is no such animal as a Welsh Labour Party and the Welsh press in particular often forgets this. The views of the winner in this contest will be important but they will not be decisive. He or she will also have to also move very quickly if they are to comply with the Plaid timetable of a referendum in the autumn of 2010. The first weeks of the new Year could be very interesting. The new Leader will have to also formulate the Assembly’s policy in the new political and financial environment after next year’s UK election. Whoever wins in June next year will introduce major cuts in public expenditure to appease the money markets. Ironically Labour hanging on could make political life even harder for the new Labour First Minister as he or she has to mute any criticism of the reduction in the Assembly budget. Politically a Tory win makes it easier to blame Westminster but it still leaves the headache of producing the first real cuts budget in the history of the Assembly for 2011/12. Not the ideal world to take your Party into an Assembly election in 2011. Interesting times for all of us!
“The Leadership election should also tell us something about the state of the Labour Party in Wales. The interesting sections of the Electoral college will be the TU and membership sections. Not just in who they voted for but how many actually took part in the ballot at all.”
Agree with this. 260,000 or so ballot papers issued – how many will have come back in? Suspect this will be one of the stories of the night.
Thanks for your interesting comments throughout this campaign, Jeff, and for your kind words on the way WalesHome.org has covered it. We’ve tried our best.