Fully paid up members…
Labour leadership race — By Adam Higgitt on November 13, 2009 9:30 amA CONSTANT refrain in the Labour leadership is that whoever wins will have their work cut out in building a public profile. That is borne out by the recent YouGov poll showing the overwhelming feeling of voters towards all three was one of ignorance.
There is no doubt that Labour have dined out on Rhodri Morgan’s profile and popularity for a long time. But does this mean the party is doomed to suffer a further dip in support when he goes? Surely what matters here is how well the new leader comes across, not whether they fail the impossible task of bringing a Rhodri-like profile with them into post? The new leader (and likely First Minister) will have plenty of opportunities to appear in the media. Profile follows position. The question most Labour members should concern themselves with is whether popularity will do so as well.
There is cause for optimism here. All three came out well of the recent BBC five-minute interview, each showing themselves to be full paid up members of the human race. To be clear, this is what is known in politician-land as a “soft” interview, where detailed probing on policy set aside in favour of questions about life at home, favourite food etc. But leaving the campaign soundbites behind can also be dangerous territory. Ask William Hague or Nick Clegg. The worst you could say about any of them was the adornment of some fixed grimace/grins. That’s easily solved; giving answers in language the average voter will connect with is less easy to instil, as even the most staunch supporters of Gordon Brown will attest. I suspect if he was asked who wore the trousers at home we’d be subjected to an answer about the importance of getting on with the job of leading Britain out of recession.
There is also evidence that each is getting better under the spotlight of the campaign. Edwina has surely killed the charge that she is camera shy, turning in performances of both warmth and appealing candour. Huw has projected an air of confident conviction. Carwyn, meanwhile, remains the most assured media performer of the three. To my mind at least, the Bridgend AM shaded last night’s Dragon’s Eye hustings, providing the right mix of crispness, authority and humour.
Labour’s opponents are keen to stress the damage the party is likely to sustain once it finally trades in the popular and well known Rhodri Morgan for one of the unknown trio. They might be advised to ask themselves another question: how would each of their leaders come across in a hustings against any of the Labour candidates? I’m not sure Plaid, Conservative or Lib Dem supporters can afford to be quite so gleeful at that prospect.
Tags: Carwyn Jones, Edwina Hart, Huw Lewis, Labour leadership race
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4 Comments
I think it is a fair point. Ieuan Wyn Jones has improved a lot. I think he would do well against Edwina and Huw but maybe on performance Carwyn would give him trouble. Nick Bourne and Kirsty would lag behind them all. I think it is interesting to look at the future leaders also.
Adam Price is considered to be a leader in waiting and I believe he would wipe the floor with everyone and anyone in Welsh Labour. I also think Jonathan Morgan, should he take over from Bourne, would run rings around the three leadership contenders Labour have got.
“To my mind at least, the Bridgend AM shaded last night’s Dragon’s Eye hustings…”
Possibly on points, as Daran said on Radio Wales this morning, Adam. Huw had a slow start. But ten minutes in, he was superb. Carwyn was what we have come to expect – predictably solid, which is no bad thing. Huw was also what we have come to expect – a little unpredictable, but untouchable when in a groove. Name me another politician in Wales that could have come up with such a succinct, inspiring answer to the final question – there isn’t one.
And there’s the rub. What does Labour need right now? A steady hand or a firebrand? For what it’s worth, I don’t think a steady hand will cut the mustard any more. The figures tell us that Welsh Labour is heading for meltdown. They should take a gamble
Kristian talks sense there. I know I’m biased as I decided who I’m backing way back, but Huw can be genuinely and uniquely inspiring. Listening to his thoughts on winning back Labour voters and turning our party around in Rhydyfelin a couple of weeks ago, for example, he talked with real passion and conviction, about a vision of real substance. No-one could touch him then.
I think Kristian is right, but I guess it comes down to whether you want change or continuity. In the position we find ourselves in at the moment, I choose the former.
I agree with Kristian, Huw stood out as the best candidate.
The stark truth is that despite Rhodri’s best efforts, Welsh Labour is perched on the edge of a very steep cliff having had three successive election results which have highlighted the disconnection there is between the electorate across Wales and the party. Only Huw seems to have recognised this fact and is talking the language of radical change – it’s what we need right now.
Living in Llanelli I was devastated, along with other party members in the area, to lose Catherine Thomas (no relation!) at the Assembly elections in 2007. Catherine had worked so hard in the few years previous but was hamstrung by the decisions taken in Cardiff on health reorganisation which looked distant and remote. For me it was telling that Nia Griffith came out and supported Huw recently because she is someone with a real stake in the immediate future… if we get this decision in the leadership election wrong, Nia faces losing her seat at the general election.
As Kristian said, a steady hand on the tiller isn’t good enough. For me, that’s what really swung me towards supporting Huw, we need someone with the broad appeal to win all across Wales, including areas like Llanelli. As I watched that hustings last night I just kept thinking to myself that Huw is the only person who can reach out to all parts of the country.
Three good candidates, but only one looked the leader we need.