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SO there goes only the fourth ever times in which the Welsh Labour Party has picked a leadership figure. I cannot say “elected” as it is dubious that any of the previous three occasions truly qualify for such a term. The first saw Ron Davies, enraged at Rhodri Morgan’s decision to even dare stand against him, triumph through extensive arm-twisting, not to mention a 91% share of the union vote. The second, known universally as “the stitch-up”, needs no elaboration, having been the subject of more academic and journalistic attention than any other event in modern Welsh political history. It, of course, directly caused the third, a coronation in which as one Cabinet member joked at the time, there were three candidates: “Rhodri Morgan, Rhodri Morgan and Rhodri Morgan”.

The fact that Labour has finally managed to conduct a fair, open and largely democratic* contest is by itself nothing for the party to shout about. But it is also the first time the party has chosen from a slate of candidates reared exclusively on devolved politics. In fact, when the new Leader gives his or her victory speech tomorrow evening Wales will finally have a party led by someone who has not even attempted to sit in Westminster. A First Minister with no first-hand experience of Westminster politics will, for both good and bad, bring a new perspective to the job.

It has also been a largely clean fight, to the obvious disappointment of Labour’s opponents. Their affectation of boredom ought to be a huge compliment to the three teams, to the party’s Executive and to General Secretary Chris Roberts. Excitement in these terms is measured by the fratricidal blood-letting, and instances of control-freakery. A single process story about the pre-screening of questions at the official hustings and a few coded rebukes hardly count.

But that does not mean it has been a success in Labour’s terms, an occasion for the party to examine and renew itself. All three candidates have confronted the party’s ongoing decline and all three have promised root-and-branch reform of the way it campaigns and relates to the UK Party. If the leaders’ candour here is matched by action, there might be progress. But it is doubtful how much the Welsh party can defy the political gravity of the UK as whole, especially given its relative under-performance in recent elections.

The policy battleground has been very narrow, with the candidates triangulated by the prospect of large budget reductions, an agreed programme of coalition government, and the perennial limitations of the Assembly’s powers. Differences have emerged in areas such as the use of nuclear power, and it would be wrong to ignore the raft of new ideas in areas such as health, children and families and the economy. But this has not been a campaign where any candidate has been able to back up a bold new direction for the party with a wholly new policy programme.

Nonetheless, each candidate has grown in stature during the campaign, and each has dispelled many of the negatives hitherto attached to them. Edwina has demonstrated that she would be an able and engaging media performer as First Minister. Carwyn’s alleged laziness has been consigned to myth through a campaign that – eventually – produced a full platform of policies and projected the Bridgend AM’s energy and authority. Huw Lewis, meanwhile, has emerged as a figure of gravitas, able to communicate a compelling and coherent vision for his party.

Inevitably, attention now turns to the question of the new Cabinet, and whether all three should be in it. Paul Murphy, whose only other contribution to the race was to prompt a rash of head-scratching over his endorsement of Edwina Hart, thinks they should. Everyone else thinks it depends in what position each finishes, and how much they command of the party membership’s support. Surely the only question the new FM needs to ask themselves is whether Labour’s 26-strong group boasts four or five more talented members than the two defeated candidates?

After those considerations, the genuinely hard work begins. The leadership race has been conducted inside the confines of Welsh politics. It has not permeated the media troposphere – such events never do – and it has not been interrupted by UK politics. To be a success, the new leader needs to change the former, projecting a vision of his/her party and administration beyond the pundits and party faithful, and work with the grain of the latter. A leadership conducted in terms of Welsh politics only is unrealistic, especially with an impending and almost certainly painful General Election.

Beyond that, the task is even more daunting, and not only because of the size of the shoes to be filled. Labour has never been out of power in Cardiff bay, and the baggage of incumbency weighs heavily. The party’s master plan for recovery seems to be to hope that a future Tory government at Westminster will appear so wicked as to make people more grateful for Labour rule. That is a calculation that the electorate appear less willing to settle for nowadays, and rightly so. Nor is it all all obvious that voters will instantly blame the Tories for the cuts in spending that must surely follow. Inspired, purposeful, result-heavy government is needed. The target must be to achieve what Rhodri Morgan  could not; to sustain a Wales that outperforms the rest of the UK, and demonstrably closes the gap. If this could be managed Labour’s new leader would achieve what Gordon Brown has shown to be so difficult; renewal while in office. Precedent, gravity and theory are all against the new leader, but he or she will have a head start: by Wednesday morning that person will already be the most successful elected Welsh Labour leader of all time.

This is the first of three posts by the Co-Editors of WalesHome.org today dealing with the Labour leadership election. Daran and Duncan will continue later with their summary take on the biggest Welsh political story of 2009.

* Spare a thought for the handful of electors lucky enough to cast five votes, one of which was worth a whopping 0.6% of the total electoral college.