Who is Labour’s Obama?

DARAN suggested last night that the CLP endorsement phase of the Welsh Labour leadership campaign shared some characteristics of a US primary. As he’s posted tonight, with an estimated 250,000 eligible voters, it probably is the nearest thing Wales has to the American selection process. The Dems would even get the idea of Labour’s electoral college, and its very own superdelegates.So do these similarities carry forward into the Democrats’ and Welsh Labour’s candidates and, if so, who is who in the race? As Lloyd Grossman doesn’t say anymore,  let’s look at the clues.

Team Carwyn isvery much pitching its man as the one to beat, the one with an all-Wales appeal and the one who looks and feels most like a First Minister. Gravitas, momentum and popular cut-through: that should make Carwyn the Hillary Clinton of our campaign.

Huw Lewis has firmly positioned himself as the candidate with the most far-reaching analysis of his party’s travails. His is a pitch based on working class appeal, with a message geared toward the heartlands. That sounds a little like John Edwards.

By a process of elimination, therefore, does that mean Edwina gets to be Barack Obama? That dog don’t hunt, as the legendary Cajun strategist James Carville might say. Edwina is the beltway candidate; someone who is presenting herself as the most experienced minister, adept at getting things done – for which might be read a bit of pork barrel politics. Her appeal is less “yes we can” than “yes, I have”. Moreover, it is Huw rather than Edwina who commands the change narrative. It is Carwyn rather than either Huw or Edwina who it is claimed can transcend traditional partisan cleavages.

So with the analogy tortured to death, this diverting bit of fun comes to a shuddering halt. No-one gets to be Obama (not even Kirsty Williams). A Frankenstein’s monster of the three might get us near, merging Huw’s emphasis on change, Carwyn’s broad appeal and Edwina’s departure from the white male mainstream. Each has something that appeals. It’s just a question of the party working which quality it wants most.