A healthy scepticism

Question: Which area is the most devolved?

Question: Which devolved area are voters most keen to be controlled by Westminster?

If you answered “health” to both of the above you’ve been delving into the detail of today’s Welsh YouGov poll. Either that, or you’ve got a spooky feel for what the voters think.

Somewhat amazingly, 41% of voters think that Westminster should have responsibility for the NHS in Wales. That compares to 47% who want control to rest with the Assembly. Still a win for the Bay, in other words, but not by a lot.

To put that in more context, 56% of voters want schools controlled from Cardiff compared to 19% who want London to take the lead.

Even more startlingly, more people (50%) want the Assembly to control policing – currently reserved – than the health service.

So what’s going on? One theory is that years of stories about longer waiting lists, threatened closures and reorganisations have taken their toll. A large chunk of voters have looked over the border and reckon Westminster can make a better fist of it. But then again, those same voters will presumably have been impressed by free prescriptions and free car parking.

So here’s another: the NHS is and remains a quintessentially British invention, a triumph of the post-war welfare state. It reminds voters of the value of pan-British institutions, and that makes them momentarily better disposed toward Westminster. It may also be that the word “national”, nowadays almost exclusively used to denote Wales, still provokes a residual identification with Britain. The trouble is the age segmentation doesn’t bear that theory out especially well. Older voters are more disposed to Westminster control, but the gap between them and younger voters is small.

Any other theories out there as to why the area over which Westminster has least control is the one the largest proportion of voters would like to see handled from London? Leave your comments below…

Survey Report