What a good race for the Roses

Clear red petals: the debate around the leadership race has focused on Labour's core values

THE late and great Patrick Hannan was sceptical of the blogsphere’s worth, but at its best it can stimulate the sense of wonder and whimsy that he thought essential to good journalism. Patrick reached a far deeper understanding of fundamentals because he knew the political arena was more often than not obscured by partisan dust. So he didn’t go there but stuck to the bars and market places of political life. Many a contributor to Called to Order was beguiled into speaking truths that would have never have been uttered during a press conference. It seems a good way  to approach a new column.

As such, it’s worth beginning with a subject very much in the political arena – the Labour leadership. The three contenders are all creatures of devolution: they had no elected role before the Assembly was created in 1999. It is fair to judge the first stages of Welsh devolution by the quality of the candidates and the conduct of the race. Are these candidates living proof that the Assembly is merely Glamorgan County Council on stilts? I think not. Whoever wins, there is the promise of a successful premiership. This is surely encouraging.

To be direct and brutal: the charge against Carwyn Jones is that he is able but lazy. He is a dilatory dilettante, his critics darkly mutter. On one level – surely the most important – this has to be absurd. The demands of political life are formidable. Even a shadow minister like me knows that all too well. Much more so for a cabinet minister. If the charge has any force it relates only to Carwyn’s style. He is laid back, not one of life’s sprinters. Not as bad as cool Cal Coolidge who slept so much that when he died, HL Menkin remarked: “How can they tell?”, but loose nevertheless.

A relaxed style strikes me as an advantage more than anything else, although Carwyn probably won’t thank me for this high Tory endorsement. The frenetic demands of day-to-day political life can obscure the longer term and strategic challenges that face Wales. A certain detachment, a sense that not everything can be put right with a quick and easy initiative, is a virtue in leadership. Cause no harm is as noble a principle as do good. Also, such a style promises a collegiate approach to government. Some notable leaders have been laid back: just think of James Callaghan (surely his premiership is ripe for re-evaluation?) or Ronald Reagan.

Of course any leadership based on the maxim if it ain’t broke don’t fix it has one obvious danger. What if things are broke? We have heard the argument – Labour is in secular decline in Wales and a fresh, vigorous approach is now needed. Maybe. But Labour’s travails appear to me more about adjusting to competitive multi-party politics. Could any leader return Welsh Labour to the heady days of dominance when they polled two-thirds of the vote in Wales? Does anyone think this would be good for Wales?

It is true that Carwyn has been a somewhat somnolescent Dauphin, but this has had more to do with Rhodri Morgan’s protracted retirement which, for the leadership contenders, has been the political equivalent of a cruel and unusual punishment. And no assessment of Carwyn’s record could omit his sure touch when handling the foot-and-mouth crisis (how bizarrely language bounces around the body!).

I think Carwyn wins comfortably in one area. Here I don’t doubt the ability of his opponents, only that Carwyn seems to naturally possess the abilities necessary to carry off the symbolic or ceremonial demands of the premiership. It annoys some, of course, but Carwyn already has the look and timbre of a First Minister. The former Conservative agent for Wales, Ted Thurgood, used to refer to this leadership quality as “bottom”. Carwyn has ballast, but his critics fear that he has so much that under him the Labour flagship would stay in port. There is a lingering doubt that he lacks the stamina to grind out results from the mundane, daily routine of political life.

Edwina Hart’s style is neither tranquil nor overly collegiate. Action this day would probably be the motto of her premiership. Much of this activity would be productive and welcome in a political culture that has sought too often comfortable palliatives to dull hard realities. But we cannot live by frenetic innovation alone. A more regular rhythm is needed if political life is to produce optimum results. Decisive action produces decisive outcomes – some good, others bad. They cannot be hidden away. How many ministers would have dared reverse health reforms barely four years old? Most people don’t replace their cars that often. Mind you, Edwina is now supported by the architect of the defunct reforms, Jane Hutt. Craft there, surely?

Despite Edwina’s grumpy relations with the press, her candour and direct approach may well prove popular with the electorate. Overall, she is the candidate most like Rhodri. While fiercely partisan she wants to reach out and be loved by the people. Rhodri was often taken to be one of the boys, someone you might bump into in the Old Arcade on match day. Edwina is less egalitarian in her self-projection, more the nation’s Mam. She knows best and after a chat and a cup of tea advice flows freely – advice never to be ignored and only seldom questioned. No dull days with Edwina, but also the risk of the odd bombshell going off.

If Carwyn is the gifted son on the verge of slightly delayed success, Edwina the Mam, then Huw Lewis is the preacher exclaiming that socialism is not just for Sundays. Labour should put into practice the principles of its radical tradition. He speaks for the Valleys and the left in Labour, and his leadership slogan Let Labour be Labour is beautifully succinct and apposite. His exclusion from the Cabinet has been an open insult to traditional Valleys Labour. By some margin Huw is the most interesting and dynamic thinker on Labour’s benches. In stunting his career, the First Minister has given Huw some of the Blair treatment that Rhodri himself received in 1997. But will Huw, like Rhodri, still get the last laugh? His biggest problem is how would he keep a coalition going that, critics argue, he deeply despises? Well his radical credentials will help. He is the only candidate comfortably to the left of the Plaid leadership.

Yet Huw could turn out to be a surprisingly good leader of a Labour-Plaid coalition. We have only to look as far as Northern Ireland (or, less controversially, Germany) for incongruous but successful partnerships. Huw is well liked on the Conservative benches despite taking the odd Nye Bevanesque swipe (the Tories are vermin) at us. It strikes me that this ability to discuss ideas with opponents would see him through. However, he is unlikely to get the chance. Let’s hope that if either Carwyn or Edwina wins they have the good grace and political sense to put Huw in the Cabinet.

Whatever the outcome we should all wish the victor success. Wales need a leader who can think boldly and act decisively. At least the Labour leadership contest has begun well and looks set to concentrate on ideas and programmes for government. Despite promising to be highly competitive right to the finish, it looks like being one of those races that ultimately strengthens a party.