The biggest fish and a big pool

Edwina Hart AM has much to smile about today

To recap, the electors fall into three sections which are all equal in terms of the overall votes they can cast. One is made up of the 29 MPs, 26 AMs and 1 MEP, giving each of them around 0.59% of the total electoral college. All AMs except Rhodri Morgan have now declared their support for a candidate, but the MEP has not and only around a third of the MPs are on the record with their voting intention.

The second section is ordinary Labour Party members and there are around 11,000 of them in Wales. They are organised into Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) who do not vote but can endorse. The members will make their own minds up, though, regardless of what their CLPs or elected politicians say – but endorsements can be significant persuaders.

And then there’s the trade unions and affiliated organisations – perhaps the most significant persuaders of all. Each one of these will have a voting strength based on either their membership in Wales (for the four socialist societies) or, in the case of trade unions, based on the number of their members who pay their political levy to become affiliated members of the Labour Party. And there are lots and lots of people who fall into that category.

Let’s start with the four affiliated Co-Operative and Socialist Societies, two of which have already endorsed. The Wales Council of the Co-Operative Party has a total strength of 10,000 members and has declared for Huw Lewis. The Socialist Health Association has 1,000 votes and has declared for Edwina Hart. We have yet to hear from either Welsh Labour Students (1,000 votes) or the Fabian Society (1,000 votes).

Then there’s the twelve trade unions, which vary in size enormously. Three of the biggest six have now chosen to back a candidate. Edwina Hart has just received the backing of Unite, the biggest one of all, which has around 100,450 levy paying members in Wales. This is the biggest boost that her campaign has received so far since the union is twice the size of the next biggest affiliate. Her campaign has already begun tweeting the news. Matt Withers has some unconfirmed intelligence on how the vote split. He also reminds readers that Unite has been accused of behaving unfairly. It’s inevitable that there will be rumours around how a trade union leans since the clout of the major ones are so considerable.

Mrs Hart has, as expected, welcomed the endorsement: “It was a tough, frank, but fair interview with members, and I am pleased that they listened to my vision for Labour and Wales and felt that I was the best candidate to deliver for union members, the Labour Party and the people of Wales. I’ve worked very closely with Unite for many years both as a minister and as a trade unionist and I am very grateful for this vote of confidence. I promised Unite that I will be the strong voice for Wales, and I will deliver on that promise.”

Edwina Hart is also backed by the Community union, which has 10,000 members. As the Western Mail confirmed this morning, Unison has chosen to back Carwyn Jones. With 52,000 levy paying members it is the second biggest union affiliated to Labour.

But at present nine unions have not declared support for a candidate. These are, in order of size:

• GMB (general union) – 51,000
• USDAW (Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers) – 22,000
• CWU (Communication Workers Union) – 14,000
• NUM South Wales (National Union of Mineworkers) – 5,000
• UCATT (Union of Construction, Allied Trades and Technicians) – 5,000
• Musicians Union – 2,000
• ASLEF (union for train drivers and operators) 2,000
• BECTU (media and entertainment union) – 1,000
• TSSA (transport and travel union) – 1,000

There is no requirement for any union to back a candidate. Indeed, there is no requirement for any union to actually cast its electoral college vote at all. But there is a requirement that if a union wishes to exercise its vote then it must ballot its membership. As the official Labour campaign website makes clear:

“Affiliated trade unions must only ballot eligible political levy-paying members. Each organisation will have a share of the electoral college in accordance with the number of members they affiliate to Welsh Labour. That share will be divided amongst the candidates strictly in accordance with the votes cast by the individual members of the organisation.”

This is a major change from the way the Welsh Labour leadership election was conducted in 1998. In that election there was no requirement to ballot, and even where a ballot took place the votes were not then divided proportionately. The party has learned from those days.

There is no guarantee that union members will follow the preference of their leadership in describing the Labour leadership – or that they will bother to vote at all. But having said that, as Betsan Powys reflected yesterday, if union members do vote they tend to follow the overall pattern of political recommendation. In that context, Edwina Hart must be smiling as broadly this afternoon as her fellow contenders were after the CLP outcomes last night.