Labour needs a leader – but so does Wales

Rhodri Morgan's successor must follow Ron Davies' example and lead Labour and Wales in securing a Yes vote in the next referendum

AS AN ASSEMBLY Member for the past decade, I can clearly remember being in the room when Alun Michael resigned in February 2000 and made this impassioned statement: “It cannot be right for Plaid Cymru to choose who leads Labour, nor is it right for the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats to connive with that purpose. That is why I have decided to put the choice back with the Labour Party, by resigning as First Secretary with immediate effect. Here is that resignation in writing, as required under Standing Orders. It is for the Labour Party, my colleagues in the Assembly Labour group and the representatives of the wider party, to decide who should be presented to this Assembly as our candidate for the post of First Secretary.”

But the leader of Welsh Labour is more than just the leader of that group in the Assembly. Whoever wins will become the First Minister of Wales.

I would not normally comment on the election of the leader of the Labour Party in Wales. However, this election comes at a critical time in the political history of our country and there are some interesting implications for an outsider like me. It is far more than being an interested onlooker. There are issues at stake and they are issues which are at the heart of the current political debate in Wales, decisive in deciding the political future of the nation.

The new First Minister of Wales should lead the campaign for further powers for the Assembly in the forthcoming referendum. We now also have a series of opinion polls and election results which, if nothing else, indicate that while Labour is likely to remain the largest party after the 2011 election it will have fewer AMs. With both Labour and Plaid unwilling to work with the Conservatives, the One Wales Coalition seems set to continue. Therefore, as a Plaid member, I am interested in seeing a One Wales enthusiast elected as leader of the Labour Party in Wales.

The three candidates are clearly capable individuals who have secured the necessary support within the three electoral sections. These are internal matters for the Labour Party and I would not venture to name a preferred candidate. However, given the circumstances, I believe there are legitimate questions which we on the outside can pose to the candidates.

The passage of all the LCOs has been a frustrating experience for those of us who want to see the Assembly functioning as a proper parliament. We were told by Westminster that our proposals were either too broad or too specific and various departments and committees seemed to want to delay the process as long as they could for no apparent reason. Therefore, in the short term, I would want to know which of the candidates would be prepared to push at the boundaries of the present devolution settlement and basically take Westminster on. The new leader of the One Wales Coalition Government will have little more that a year to deliver on the 2007 commitments. We cannot afford to have a leader who is seen as a pushover and in the pocket of Labour MPs.

If the Coalition survives the 2011 election, the new leader will face some very difficult decisions in terms of public services. The budget will be very tight for the foreseeable future with annual cuts of around £500 million. This is a different scenario to the past 10 years which have seen substantial increases taking the budget from just under £8 billion in 1999 to over £15 billion in 2009. Ministers can no longer only be efficient managers and administrators – they need to be creative thinkers setting priorities, taking tough decisions and generally thinking outside the box. In this process the leader needs to show leadership. For example, if the One Wales Government was to call for the cancellation of Trident and for the savings, estimated to be between £75 – £90 billion, to be mainly re-invested into public services there would be a substantial consequential for the Assembly budget which would at the very least make good the projected cuts. Which, if any, of the candidates would be prepared to take on this kind of initiative?

But the big question for an outsider like me is which one of the three candidates is likely to offer enthusiastic leadership during the referendum. In order to secure a majority yes vote, we need a committed devolutionist leading from the front. Many people contributed towards the narrow yes victory in 1997 but that would never have been achieved without Ron Davies putting himself and his political future on the line – victory or bust. The polls tell us there is growing support for more powers and specifically for the Scottish Parliament model. But that victory will not happen without a leader who is prepared to lead and stake his or her political reputation on the result. We cannot afford to have a leader hedging his or her bets – that would disastrous for the campaign and the political future of Wales.

As an outsider I will have more than an outside interest in the result of the election for the leadership of the Labour Party. Indeed I hope that some of the issues I have raised in this article will be important to Labour Party members and will be raised during the campaign. Following the resignation of Rhodri Morgan the Labour Party in Wales needs a new leader, but at this critical time Wales also needs a leader. Rhodri Morgan has rightly been accredited on getting the devolution ship back on course after hitting early stormy seas and it has been a decade of steady progress.

But the next decade will be very different and calls for very different skills from the Labour leader. Given the state of the party it would be natural for members to make a decision based on internal interests only. However, I hope they will also consider the wider implications of their decision.