In your region today…

AT the risk of sounding obsessive, the polling data also contains useful regional polling data based on Assembly election intentions too. Results are divided between constituencies and the Assembly’s electoral regions with the additional feature that South Wales Central has been sliced in two between the valley part and capital city.

Things that leapt out to us from this data were:

• Labour has 34% across Wales but in reality it is on around 40% across South Wales and just 23% and 25% in Mid & West Wales and North Wales respectively. The problem for Labour is this context are that the majority of its most vulnerable seats are in its two weakest regions, and this regionalised data confirms a trend of big losses.
• Conservative support is also very regional. They may have 31% across Wales but it’s as low as 16% in South Wales West and as strong as 39% in Mid & West Wales.
• Plaid Cymru’s average of 15% peaks at 24% in North Wales and troughs at just 5% in South Wales East. The Mid & West Wales region may be on 19% but in Assembly terms they have often been close to double that. In terms of South Wales targets, the South Wales West region with 18% support seems to be the most fertile ground.
• The Liberal Democrats have 12% across Wales but remain particularly weak in North Wales, where they are on 6%. In Mid & West Wales they currently have 3 of their 4 Welsh seats they are on just 11% and heading for a crash. Good news for Peter Black’s gang though – they are as strong as Plaid in South Wales West on 18%, their strongest region, and this would probably deliver them Swansea West in an Assembly election.
• Data from Cardiff shows Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 35% with the Liberal Democrats, who lead the city council and hold Cardiff Central, on just 15% of the vote. On that sort of data seats like Cardiff West do look like more than paper targets for the Conservatives.

Survey Report