If there were a General Election tomorrow…

WELL there isn’t, but there is an opinion poll for Wales published today which has posed this very question and the results make very interesting reading indeed. When asked the crucial question about 2010 voting intentions the Welsh electorate divided as follows:
- Labour 34%
- Conservative 31%
- Plaid Cymru 15%
- Liberal Democrat 12%

To give this some sort of context it is worth comparing the intentions to the outcomes of the 2005 General Election, which saw Wales’ 40 seats divide as follows:
- Labour 43% – 29 seats
- Conservative 21% – 3 seats
- Liberal Democrat 18% – 4 seats
- Plaid Cymru 13% – 3 seats

Comparing the two, the most marked factors in the poll would be the switch of 10% of the electorate from Labour to the Conservatives, and the drop of a third in the vote of the Liberal Democrats. In such circumstances Labour would haemorrhage not just votes but representatives, and the Liberal Democrats would find it impossible to hold on to their four current seats.

Plaid Cymru would probably take its top two targets, Ynys Mon and Ceredigion, on the back of Labour and Liberal Democrat slump respectively, but such a situation would only restore them to the position of round about the turn of this century when they held both those constituency gains. That’s no breakthrough.

But it’s what this means for the Conservatives that is perhaps the most interesting question. Looking at the voting figures, we were struck by the similarity of this voting pattern to the 1983 General Election in Wales, which was the very nadir of Labour’s fortunes in the ballot box. In that election Labour in Wales took 37.5% of the vote and got 20 out of the 38 seats, with the Conservatives polling an identical 31% and being rewarded with 14 seats. Plaid were on 8% and 2 seats and the Alliance (remember them?) took just 2 seats on 23% of the vote. The similarity is of course the closeness of the Conservative position to the one attained over quarter of a century ago. The Conservatives have long predicted that they will attain double figure representation in Wales next year and on these figures and using that comparator they are more than on the way to doing so.

Let’s put that in a UK context. To form the next Westminster administration, the Conservatives need to pick up close to 200 seats across the country. For that to become a reality they need to attain double figure representation in Wales. On the basis of this poll, they are heading in that direction. Although extrapolating polling data gathered nationally to individual constituencies is a dangerous and often misleading sport, nevertheless Tory targets like Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South, Brecon & Radnorshire, Aberconwy and Vale of Clwyd would all be probable Conservative gains if the ballot box was close to this poll.

But, as we are reminded, this is just a poll and real voting intentions are a very different matter. On these figures, Labour must be praying that they are very different indeed.

Survey Report