Hart attacks

THE decision by Jane Hutt to back Edwina Hart as next leader of Welsh Labour does indeed, as the Western Mail reports this morning, “cement Ms Hart’s position as the candidate with the backing of the highest number of AMs.” We have been tracking the numbers all week and the tally now stands at 10 AMs for the Health Minister, seven for Carwyn Jones and six for Huw Lewis.

Three AMs have still to declare – Rhodri Morgan (who will not back anyone, but still has a vote which is worth 0.59% of the electoral college), Carl Sargeant, the Chief Whip, and Brian Gibbons, the Social Justice and Local Government Minister. But both have waited so long to declare their support that their potential impact has now been trumped by the firm declaration that Mrs Hart has the backing of more AMs than any other candidate. Looking at the punch that came with last night’s endorsement of Edwina by Jane, the appearance is one of a campaign which has – perhaps finally – found its momentum.

Expect Team Carwyn and Team Huw to respond over the weekend. There are more Welsh Labour MPs than Welsh Labour AMs – 29 to 26 – and they count. Any electoral contest is all about numbers. The expectation is that Carwyn will have the biggest share of MP endorsements. His campaign needs to go public with their support in that quarter to recapture the edge they possessed at the start of this week.