Reaction to the poll from the candidates

ONE of the key sets of findings from the You Gov poll this morning was the recognition factor and perception of the three candidates seeking to replace Rhodri Morgan as First Minister. As Adam wrote earlier today, Rhodri scores well on both perception and recognition. His possible successors aren’t so strong.

To recap, the question of how would each one perform as First Minister shows that all three have yet to make themselves into household names as Rhodri has.

How well would Carwyn perform as FM? Don’t Know (54%). Huw Lewis? Don’t Know (59%). Edwina Hart? Don’t Know (45%).

But those polled were also asked “How well or badly do you think each of the following would do as First Minister for Wales?” In relation to this question, Carwyn Jones got a positive rating of 18, Huw Lewis a positive rating of 3 and Edwina Hart a negative rating of -1. Edwina’s opponents have also been quick to point out that even amongst Labour voters that 26% believe she would perform fairly or very badly. On such findings she certainly seems to polarise opinion.

But in typical Edwina style, she takes this judgement head on. Commenting on these findings, Edwina Hart said to WalesHome.org: “This straw poll shows quite clearly that people know me and know what I stand for. As a Minister, you have to take tough decisions which not everyone may agree with – but I stand by those decisions because I believe that they are in the best interests of the people of Wales. I am very heartened to find as i meet Labour people face-to-face during this campaign I am building up a great level of support.”

Having analysed the figures, a Huw Lewis campaign spokesperson said to us: “These figures really chime with our own analysis and it shows that everything is still to play for. Our figures have consistently shown that we are ahead with the membership and the broader Labour family; our extensive phone contact has shown us that, and these figures would seem to underscore where our strengths are. People respond positively to Huw, in North Wales, in West Wales – right across the country there is a genuine and growing connection with his message. Whilst other candidates currently have slightly better recognition, that is not translated into popularity. People who meet Huw and hear him speak respond well to him, that is why it has always been our objective for Huw to speak to as many members as possible – he really is the campaign’s greatest asset.”

A spokesperson for Carwyn Jones also provided a different take on the figures for WalesHome.org, and said: “The real votes that count in this election are those of party members and those in the affiliated organisations – in which the ballot has not yet started. What this poll does, however, is confirm our view that Labour needs a leader for the whole of Wales.”

Survey Report